BOX 1-1

Questions to be Addressed by CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.2

According to guidance in the CCSP prospectus outlining the purpose of SAP 3.2, the report will consist of two components.

  1. Climate projections for research and assessment based on the range of stabilization scenarios of long-lived greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations developed by SAP 2.1a. These stabilization scenarios and their resulting long-lived greenhouse gas concentrations were generated by three unified assessment models.

  2. An assessment of the sign, magnitude, and duration of future climate impacts due to changing levels of short-lived gaseous and particulate species that may be subject to future mitigation actions to address air quality issues.

SAP 3.2 is intended to provide information to those who use climate model outputs to assess the potential effects of human activities on climate, air quality, and ecosystem behavior. The key questions to be addressed by SAP 3.2 are:

  1. Do SAP 2.1a emissions scenarios differ significantly from IPCC emissions scenarios?

  2. If the SAP 2.1a emissions scenarios do fall within the envelope of emissions scenarios previously considered by the IPCC, can the existing IPCC climate simulations be used to estimate 50-to 100-year climate responses for the CCSP 2.1 CO2 emissions scenarios?

  3. What would be the changes to the climate system under the scenarios being put forward by SAP 2.1a?

  4. For the next 50 to 100 years, can the time-varying behavior of the climate projections using the emissions scenarios from SAP 2.1a be distinguished from one another or from the scenarios currently being studied by the IPCC?

  5. What are the impacts of the radiatively active short-lived species not being reported in SAP 2.1?

  6. How do the impacts of short-lived species compare with those of the well-mixed green house gases as a function of the time horizon examined?

  7. How do the regional impacts of short-lived species compare with those of long-lived gases in or near polluted areas?

  8. What might be the climate impacts of mitigation actions taken to reduce the atmospheric levels of short-lived species to address air quality issues?

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