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Proceedings of a Workshop on Statistics on Networks

Scott T. Weidman, Editor

Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics

Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences



Washington, D.C.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001

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Proceedings of a Workshop on Statistics on Networks Scott T. Weidman, Editor Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This study was supported by Grant #H-98230-05-1-0019 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Security Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Copies of this report on CD-ROM are available from the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Room 960, Washington, D.C. 20001. Additional copies of this CD-ROM are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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COMMITTTEE ON APPLIED AND THEORETICAL STATISTICS EDWARD J. WEGMAN, Chair, George Mason University DAVID L. BANKS, Duke University AMY BRAVERMAN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory EMERY N. BROWN, Harvard Medical School ALICIA CARRIQUIRY, Iowa State University THOMAS COVER, Stanford University KAREN KAFADAR, University of Colorado at Denver KATHRYN B. LASKEY, George Mason University MICHAEL LESK, Rutgers University THOMAS LOUIS, Johns Hopkins University DOUGLAS NYCHKA, National Center for Atmospheric Research LELAND WILKINSON, SPSS, Inc. Staff Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications (BMSA) Workshop Organizers: SCOTT WEIDMAN, BMSA Director BARBARA WRIGHT, Administrative Assistant iv

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PROGRAM COMMITTEE DAVID L. BANKS, Chair, Duke University EMERY N. BROWN, Massachusetts General Hospital KATHLEEN CARLEY, Carnegie Mellon University MARK HANDCOCK, University of Washington RAVI IYENGAR, Mount Sinai School of Medicine ALAN F. KARR, National Institute of Statistical Sciences ROBERT D. NOWAK, University of Wisconsin-Madison WALTER WILLINGER, AT&T-Research __________________ NOTE: Funding for this workshop and its proceedings was generously provided by the National Security Agency. v

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BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS C. DAVID LEVERMORE, Chair, University of Maryland MASSOUD AMIN, University of Minnesota MARSHA J. BERGER, New York University PHILIP A. BERNSTEIN, Microsoft Corporation PATRICIA F. BRENNAN, University of Wisconsin-Madison PATRICK L. BROCKETT, University of Texas at Austin DEBRA ELKINS, General Motors Corporation LAWRENCE CRAIG EVANS, University of California at Berkeley JOHN F. GEWEKE, University of Iowa DARRYLL HENDRICKS, UBS AG JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University CHARLES M. LUCAS, AIG (retired) CHARLES F. MANSKI, Northwestern University JOYCE R. McLAUGHLIN, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute JILL PORTER MESIROV, Broad Institute ANDREW M. ODLYZKO, University of Minnesota JOHN RICE, University of California at Berkeley STEPHEN M. ROBINSON, University of Wisconsin-Madison GEORGE SUGIHARA, University of California at San Diego EDWARD J. WEGMAN, George Mason University LAI-SANG YOUNG, New York University Staff SCOTT WEIDMAN, Director NEAL GLASSMAN, Senior Staff Officer BARBARA WRIGHT, Administrative Assistant vi

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Preface and Workshop Rationale On September 26 and 27, 2005, the Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics of the National Research Council conducted a 2-day workshop that explored statistical inference on network data so as to stimulate further progress in this field. To encourage cross-fertilization of ideas, the workshop brought together a wide range of researchers who are dealing with network data in different contexts. The presentations focused on five major areas of research: network models, dynamic networks, data and measurement on networks, robustness and fragility of networks, and visualization and scalability of networks. Disciplines such as biology, social sciences, and telecommunications have created different kinds of statistical theory for inference on network data. The workshop was organized to draw together experts from the various domains and to facilitate the sharing of their statistical, mathematical, and computational toolkits. The ubiquity of networks and network data created a challenging environment for the discovery of common problems and techniques. The overall goals of this report, which is produced only on a CD and not in printed form, are to improve communication among various communities working on problems associated with network data and to increase relevant activity within the statistical sciences community. Included in this report are the full and unedited text of the 18 workshop presentations, the agenda of the workshop and a list of attendees (Appendix A) and biographical sketches of the speakers (Appendix B). The presentations represent independent research efforts on the part of academia, the private sector, federally funded laboratories, and government agencies, and as such they provide a sampling rather than a comprehensive examination of the range of research and research challenges posed by massive data streams. This proceedings represents the viewpoints of its authors only and should not be taken as a consensus report of the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications or the National Research Council. vii

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Contents Keynote Address, Day 1 Network Complexity and Robustness 2 John Doyle Network Models Neurons, Networks, and Noise: An Introduction 62 Nancy Kopell Mixing Patterns and Community Structure in Networks 74 Mark Newman Dimension Selection for Latent Space Models of Social Networks 97 Peter Hoff Dynamic Networks Embedded Networked Sensing (Redux?) 121 Deborah Estrin The Functional Organization of Mammalian Cells 146 Ravi Iyengar Dynamic Network Analysis in Counterterrorism Research 169 Kathleen M. Carley Data and Measurement Current Developments in a Cortically Controlled Brain-Machine Interface 189 Nicho Hatsopoulos Some Implications of Path-Based Sampling on the Internet 207 Eric D. Kolaczyk Network Data and Models 226 Martina Morris The State of the Art in Social Network Analysis The State of the Art in Social Network Analysis Stephen P. Borgatti 255 ix

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Keynote Address, Day 2 Variability, Homeostasis per Contents and Compensation in Rhythmic Motor Networks 271 Eve Marder Dynamics and Resilience of Blood Flow in Cortical Microvessels 292 David Kleinfeld Robustness and Fragility Robustness and Fragility 318 Jean M. Carlson Stability and Degeneracy of Network Models 343 Mark S. Handcock Visualization and Scalability Characterizing Brain Networks with Granger Causality 376 Mingzhou Ding Visualization and Variation: Tracking Complex Networks Across Time and Space 396 Jon Kleinberg Dependency Networks for Relational Data 425 David Jensen Appendixes A Workshop Agenda and List of Attendees 450 B Biographical Sketches of Workshop Speakers 455 x