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Anticipated Vaccine Utilization

The health belief model parameters (perceptions of risk of illness, severity, vaccination benefits, and barriers) used to predict vaccine utilization are described in Chapter 6, where scores assigned to various vaccines are displayed together for comparison.

Lay Acceptance

Lay identification of rotavirus as a cause of diarrheal illness probably is fairly low, so a low score has been assigned in this category. The apparent severity of diarrheal illness, especially in young children, and its disruptive consequences result in a moderate lay score in this category. The lay perception of benefits probably would be only moderate, especially with physician cueing that the vaccine would not be for all causes of diarrhea. The barriers would be fairly low and relate primarily to anxiety over administration of a live virus to small children.

Provider Acceptance

Provider perceptions of the risk of illness and the severity both have been assumed to be moderately low. Assuming reasonable proof of efficacy for licensing, it is anticipated that providers would favor preventing a diarrheal illness and hence rank benefits fairly high. For physicians, a licensed live viral vaccine would pose few barriers, hence, a low score has been assigned to this category.

Cost of Illness

The scope and purpose of the calculations included below are described in Chapters 4 and 7. These calculations are based on certain simplifying procedures and assumptions that have been judged not to compromise their utility for the purposes of this disease comparison. The total costs should be taken only as an approximation of the direct cost of this disease.

Costs of Total Disease Burden and Vaccine Preventable Illness

Category A

 

 

# of cases=3,476,965

 

 

5% of cases typically receive 1 phys. visit at $30

= $

5,215,000

10% of cases typically receive treatment/medication at $10

= $

3,477,000

[OTC medication]

 

 

 

TOTAL (A)

= $

8,692,000



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