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TABLE 5.1 Predictions for New Vaccine Development

 

 

 

Development to Licensure

Pathogen

Vaccine Envisaged

Target Population

Probability of Success (p)

Estimated Future Costs ($ millions)

Time to Licensure (years)

Comments

Bordetella pertussis

Acellular

Infants

0.90

10

3–5

 

Coccidioides immitis

Killed spherule preparation

High-risk individuals residing or working in endemic areas

0.50

10

6–7

 

Cytomegalovirus

Attenuated live virus

Seronegative (SN) recipients of bone marrow and organ transplants and SN persons with leukemias and lymphomas

0.50

10

3

 

 

 

Nonpregnant adolescent females

0.50

10

7

Further development of above vaccine. Safety trials difficult.

 

Glycoprotein produced by recombinant DNA technology

All children

0.50

45

7–10

 

Hemophilus influenzae type b

Conjugated polysaccharide

Infants

0.90

30

3

 

Hepatitis A virus

Attenuated live virus

Susceptibles of all ages (routine for children)

0.95

15

4

 

 

Subunit

Susceptibles of all ages (routine for children)

0.95

25

5

 

Hepatitis B virus

Glycoprotein produced by recombinant DNA technology

High-risk groups (health professionals, homosexuals, IV drug users, etc.)

0.95

10

1–2

 

Herpes simplex viruses 1 & 2

Glycoprotein produced by recombinant DNA technology

Children up to age 12 and older Susceptibles

0.90

30

5

 

 

Attenuated live virus

Children up to age 12 and older Susceptibles

0.50

30

8

 



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