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New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities: Volume I, Diseases of Importance in the United States (1985)
Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice (BPH)

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. "6. Assessing the Likely Utilization of New Vaccines." New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities: Volume I, Diseases of Importance in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1985.

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New Vaccine Development Establishing Priorities, Volume I: Diseases of Importance in the United States

 

 

 

Total Scores

Combined Scores

 

 

 

Lay

Provider

Weighted Additive Scores

Weighted Multiplicative Scores

Pathogen

Vaccine Envisaged

Target Population

Weighted Additive

Weighted Multiplicative (×10−6)

Weighted Additive

Weighted Multiplicative (×10−6)

Additive

Multiplicative

Additive (×10−6)

Multiplicative (×10−72)

Herpes simplex viruses 1 & 2

Glycoprotein produced by recombinant DNA technology

Children up to age 12 and other susceptibles

14

0.61

18

1.54

32

252

2.15

0.9394

 

Attenuated live virus

Children up to age 12 and other susceptibles

14

0.61

12

0.56

26

168

1.17

0.3416

Herpesvirus varicellae

Attenuated live virus

Recipients of organ and bone marrow transplants and persons under age 25 with leukemias and lymphomas

41

35.42

33

13.43

74

1353

48.85

475.6906

 

 

Normal susceptibles, routine for children (booster for adults)

24

2.25

18

0.56

42

432

2.81

1.26

Influenza viruses A & B

Subunit vaccine (purified hemagglutinin/ neuraminidase proteins)

High-risk population as currently defined (see Appendix K)

10

0.35

16

1.07

26

160

1.42

0.3745

 

Attenuated live virus

High-risk population as currently defined (see Appendix K)

13

0.6

16

1.07

29

208

1.67

0.642

Neisseria gonorrhoeae

A small number of promising options need investigation to determine best approach

Adolescents and adults age 15 and over

5

0.085

15

0.66

20

75

0.745

0.0561

Parainfluenza viruses

Trivalent, subunit vaccine (must contain fusion protein)

Infants

19

0.68

25

4.74

44

475

5.42

3.2232

Respiratory syncytial virus

Glycoprotein produced by recombinant DNA technology

Infants

12

0.41

19

1.7

31

228

2.11

0.697

 

Attenuated live virus

Infants

18

1.38

21

2.3

39

378

3.68

3.174

Rotavirus

Attenuated live bovine virus

Infants

14

0.64

17

0.68

31

238

1.32

0.4352

 

Attenuated live human or reassortment virus

Infants

14

0.64

17

0.68

31

238

1.32

0.4352

Streptococcus group B

Conjugated polysaccharide

Pregnant women for fetuses and neonates

6

0.041

20

1.57

26

120

1.611

0.06437

Page
82
Front Matter (R1-R14)
1. Summary (1-16)
2. Priority Setting for Health Related Investments: A Review of Methods (17-27)
3. Overview of the Analytic Approach (28-38)
4. Comparison of Disease Burdens and Costs (39-58)
5. Predictions on Vaccine Development (59-66)
6. Assessing the Likely Utilization of New Vaccines (67-91)
7. Calculation and Comparison of the Health Benefits and Costs Associated with Candidate Vaccines (92-120)
8. Additional Issues in the Selection of Priorities for Accelerated Vaccine Development (121-126)
9. Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations (127-148)
Appendix A: Some Examples of the Application of Project Selection Method (149-152)
Appendix B: Pathogenic Agents for Which Accelerated Vaccine Development Does Not Appear Appropriate (153-170)
Appendix C: Prospects for Immunizing Against Bordetella pertussis (171-182)
Appendix D: Prospects for Immunizing Against Coccidioidomycosis (183-197)
Appendix E: Prospects for Immunizing Against Cytomegalovirus (198-234)
Appendix F: Prospects for Immunizing Against Hemophilus influenzae type b (235-251)
Appendix G: Prospects for Immunizing Against Hepatitis A Virus (252-260)
Appendix H: Prospects for Immunizing Against Hepatitis B Virus (261-279)
Appendix I: Prospects for Immunizing Against Herpes Simplex Viruses 1 and 2 (280-312)
Appendix J: Prospects for Immunizing Against Herpesvirus varicellae (313-341)
Appendix K: Prospects for Immunizing Against Influenza Viruses A and B (342-364)
Appendix L: Prospects for Immunizing Against Neisseria gonorrhoeae (365-384)
Appendix M: Prospects for Immunizing Against Parainfluenza Viruses (385-396)
Appendix N: Prospects for Immunizing Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (397-409)
Appendix O: Prospects for Immunizing Against Rotavirus (410-423)
Appendix P: Prospects for Immunizing Against Streptococcus group B (424-439)
Appendix Q: Questionnaire for Assessing Morbidity-Mortality Trade-Offs (440-443)
Appendix R: Technical Notes (444-444)
Appendix S: Biographical Notes on Committee Members (445-449)
Appendix T: Additional Sources of Advice to the Committee (450-452)
Index (453-458)