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FIGURE 7.2 Calculation of expected reduction in morbidity costs.

  1. Calculation of the vaccination program costs; as illustrated in Figure 7.3.

  2. Estimation of the adverse effects of each vaccination program. The predicted incidence of adverse reactions, the annual number of potential new vaccinees, and the IME values for the types of adverse conditions predicted are used to calculate values representing the vaccine-induced morbidity and mortality (if any). The costs of vaccine-induced illness also are calculated—where necessary—by the procedures described in Chapter 4.

  3. Calculation of the net potential health benefits. These values are PRMM figures adjusted for the adverse effects of a vaccination program.

  4. Calculation of the expected annual health benefits. This step involves adjustment of net potential benefit values for anticipated vaccine utilization.

  5. Calculation of the annualized present value of expected health benefits. These values represent an adjustment of the expected health benefits to take account of the probability of successful development

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