REVIEW OF CCSP DRAFT SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 5.3: DECISION-SUPPORT EXPERIMENTS AND EVALUATIONS USING SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA

Panel to Review CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data

Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change

Center for Economic, Governance, and International Studies

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
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REVIEW OF CCSP DRAFT SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 5.3: DECISION-SUPPORT EXPERIMENTS AND EVALUATIONS USING SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA Panel to Review CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Center for Economic, Governance, and International Studies Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. DG133R07SE2248 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Commerce. Support of the work of the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a NASA Contract No. NNH07CC79B from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number 0436369). Any opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-11568-1 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-11568-X Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet . Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2008). Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data. Panel to Review CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision- Support Experiments and Evaluations, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Center for Economic, Governance and International Studies, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. ii

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org iii

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Panel to Review CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN (Chair), Departments of Civil and Environmental Engineering and of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine KIRSTIN DOW, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia JOHN A. DRACUP, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley LISA GODDARD, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University MICHAEL HANEMANN, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley DENISE LACH, Department of Sociology, Oregon State University, Corvallis DOUG PLASENCIA, Michael Baker, Jr., Inc., Phoenix, Arizona PAUL C. STERN, Study Director JENNIFER F. BREWER, Staff Officer LINDA DEPUGH, Administrative Assistant v

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Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change THOMAS J. WILBANKS (Chair), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee RICHARD N. ANDREWS, Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill ROBERT CORELL, H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, Washington, DC ROGER E. KASPERSON, George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University ANN KINZIG, Department of Biology, Arizona State University, Tempe TIMOTHY McDANIELS, Eco-Risk Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver LINDA O. MEARNS, Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado EDWARD MILES, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle ALEXANDER PFAFF, Public Policy Department, Duke University EUGENE ROSA, Natural Resource and Environmental Policy, Washington State University, Pullman CYNTHIA E. ROSENZWEIG, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York GARY W. YOHE, Department of Economics, Wesleyan University PAUL C. STERN, Study Director LINDA DEPUGH, Administrative Assistant vi

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Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's RRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Richard G. Lawford, Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), Silver Spring, MD; Kathleen A. Miller, Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research; and Alex Rothman, Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Roger E. Kasperson, George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University, Worcester, MA. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. vii

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CONTENTS Executive Summary 1 Introduction 2 Overview Issues 3 Responsiveness to Prospectus Questions 4 Support for Findings and Recommendations 5 Organization and Accessibility References Appendices A: Topics for Synthesis and Assessment Products of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program B: Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff ix

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