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Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data (2008)

Chapter: APPENDIX A Topics for Synthesis and Assessment Products of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Topics for Synthesis and Assessment Products of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program." National Research Council. 2008. Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12087.
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Page 43

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APPENDIX A Topics for Synthesis and Assessment Products of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program 1-1 Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. 1-2 Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes 1-3 Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of observed change. 2-1 Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application. 2-2 North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle. 2-3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate. 2-4 Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure. 3-1 Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations for User Applications. 3-2 Climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios developed through the CCTP. 3-3 Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific islands. 3-4 Abrupt Climate Change. 4-1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise. 4-2 Thresholds of Change in Ecosystems. 4-3 The effects of climate change on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water resources. 4-4 Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. 4-5 Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States. 4-6 Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems. 4-7 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study. 5-1 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions. 5-2 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decision making. 5-3 Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data. 43

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This study offered an independent peer review for a synthetic document being produced for the CCSP. It found the draft document to be in a fairly early stage of development and noted several issues needing attention in the revision. The draft was inconsistent across sections with respect to whether or not it accepted two assumptions: that more skillful forecasts necessarily have greater value, and that the most useful form of information is a projected future value of an outcome parameter with an uncertainty distribution. Available scientific evidence gives reason to question these assumptions, and the draft did not discuss the evidence. Among other issues needing attention, the review called for the revised draft to do more to substantiate its claims of the potential benefits of knowledge-action networks and to give more careful consideration to the appropriate balance of roles between governmental and private efforts.

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