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Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data
Questions To Be Addressed in Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3
The prospectus for SAP 5.3 indicates that the document will address, among others, each of the following questions or issues. They are numbered here for reference purposes.
Section I: A Description and Evaluation of the Forecast/Data Products
(a) What are the seasonal to interannual forecast/data products currently available and (b) how does a product evolve from a scientific prototype to an operational product?
What steps are taken to ensure that this product is needed and will be used in decision support?
(a) What is the level of confidence of the product within the science community and within the decisionmaking community; (b) who establishes these confidence levels and how are they determined?
Section II: Decision-Support Experiments Within the Water Resource Management Sector
What types of decisions are made related to water resources?
What is the role that seasonal to interannual forecasts play and could play?
How does climate variability influence water resource management?
What seasonal to interannual (e.g., probabilistic) forecast information do decisionmakers need to manage water resources?
(a) How do forecasters convey information on climate variability and (b) how is the relative skill and level of confidence of the results communicated to resource managers?
What are the obstacles and challenges decisionmakers face in translating climate forecasts and hydrology information into integrated resource management?
What are the barriers that exist in convincing decisionmakers to consider using risk-based hydrology information (including climate forecasts)?
What is the role of probabilistic forecast information in the context of decision support in the water resources sector?
What challenges do tool developers have in finding out the needs of decision makers?
How much involvement do practitioners have in product development?
What are the measurable indicators of progress in terms of access to information and its effective uses?
How is data quality controlled?
Section III: Analysis of Present and Past Decision-Support Experiments and a Look Toward the Future
identify critical components, mechanisms, and pathways that have led to successful utilization of climate information by water managers.
discuss how these findings can be transferred to other sectors.