TABLE 3.A.2 Sources and Key Assumptions Used to Develop Energy Savings and Cost Estimates


Buildings Sector

Transportation Sector

Industry Sectora

Reference scenario

EIA (2007, 2008)

Developed by committeeb

EIA (2007, 2008)

Source of cost estimates

Critical assessment of the literature

Critical assessment of the literature

Critical assessment of the literature

Source of savings estimates

Critical assessment of the literature on individual technologies and committee-derived conservation supply-curve analysis

  • Critical assessment of the literature on specific technologies

  • For light-duty vehicles (LDVs), committee-derived illustrative scenario analysis of overall savings in fuel consumption

Critical assessment of the literature on industry-wide savings, industry-specific savings, and savings from specific crosscutting technologies

Key cost-effectiveness criteria

Levelized cost of energy savings is less than the average national electricity and natural gas prices

Recovery of discounted costs of energy savings over the life of the vehicle

Energy savings provide an internal rate of return on investment of at least 10 percent or exceed the company’s cost of capital by a risk premium

Technology lifetimes

Technology specific

Average vehicle lifetime

Technology specific

Before-tax discount rate (percent/yr)




Other considerations

Assessment accounts for stock turnover in buildings and equipment

For LDVs, assessment considers how the distribution of specific vehicle types in the new-vehicle fleet affects the on-the-road fleet

Assessment of savings in specific industries used to confirm industry-wide estimates

aManufacturing only.

bThis is a “no-change” baseline in which, beyond 2020 (when Energy Independence and Security Act targets are met), any efficiency improvements are fully offset by increases in vehicle performance, size, and weight.

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