TABLE 4.4 Estimated Additional Cost to Purchaser of Advanced Vehicles Relative to Baseline 2005 Average Gasoline Vehicle

Propulsion System

Additional Retail Price (2007 dollars)

Car

Light Truck

Current gasoline

0

0

Current diesel

1,700

2,100

Current hybrid

4,900

6,300

2035 gasoline

2,000

2,400

2035 diesel

3,600

4,500

2035 hybrid

4,500

5,500

2035 PHEV

7,800

10,500

2035 BEV

16,000

24,000

2035 HFCV

7,300

10,000

Note: Cost and price estimates depend on many assumptions and are subject to great uncertainty. For example, different companies may subsidize new vehicles and technologies with different strategies in mind. Costs listed are additional costs only, relative to baseline average new car and light truck purchase prices (in 2007 dollars) that were calculated as follows:

—Average new car: $14,000 production cost × 1.4 (a representative retail price equivalent factor) = an average purchase price of $19,600.

—Average new light truck: $15,000 × 1.4 = $21,000.

These are not meant to represent current average costs. Rather, they are the costs used in this analysis. Details on how the costs were estimated can be found in NAS-NAE-NRC (2009).

For the purpose of these estimates, the PHEV all-electric driving range is 30 miles; the BEV driving range is 200 miles. Advanced battery and fuel-cell system prices are based on target battery and fuel-cell costs from current development programs.

Source: Bandivadekar et al., 2008.

market shares of advanced technologies can grow, such as the need for breakthroughs in battery performance and for a hydrogen-distribution infrastructure.

Table 4.5 shows the AEF Committee’s judgment, based on the constraints just outlined, of the extent to which these advanced vehicle technologies could plausibly penetrate the new LDV market in the United States. (Note that Table 4.5 is not intended to imply that all these technologies would necessarily be deployed together.) The estimates are intended as illustrations of achievable deployment levels, based on historical case studies of comparable technology changes; these estimates suggest that relative annual increases of 8–10 percent in the deployment rate are plausible. With changes in the factors that affect vehicle attributes or purchases, such as stricter regulatory standards or high fuel prices, the timeline for reaching these market shares could be shortened.



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