Costs and Supply

As previously noted, the cost estimates for biochemical conversion and thermochemical conversion are based on only one biomass feedstock, Miscanthus. Moreover, Figures 5.4 to 5.6 do not show how much fuel could be produced at the estimated costs. To provide a more complete picture of alternative liquid fuels, the supply function from Figure 5.3 for all biomass feedstocks has been combined with the conversion-cost estimates. (The potential supply of gasoline and diesel from coal-to-liquids technology is discussed in the section below titled “Deployment of Alternative Transportation Fuels.”) The results are presented in Figures 5.7 and 5.8.

Figure 5.7 shows the potential gasoline-equivalent supply of ethanol from biochemical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass and corn grain, with technology deployable in 2020. The supply of grain ethanol satisfies the current legislative requirement to produce 15 billion gallons of ethanol per year in 2022. Figure 5.7

FIGURE 5.7 Estimated supply of cellulosic ethanol plus corn grain ethanol at different price points in 2020. The red solid and dotted lines show, for comparison, the supply of crude oil at $60 and $100 per barrel.

FIGURE 5.7 Estimated supply of cellulosic ethanol plus corn grain ethanol at different price points in 2020. The red solid and dotted lines show, for comparison, the supply of crude oil at $60 and $100 per barrel.



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