FIGURE 7.5 Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) estimated for various types of coal-fired and natural-gas-fired power plants at zero carbon price. These estimates, like those for other technologies, do not necessarily include all of the site-specific costs of building a plant nor all of the real-world contingencies that may be needed depending on economic conditions (see Box 7.2 for more discussion). The price of coal is fixed at $1.71/GJ, or $1.80/million Btu HHV (approximately equivalent to $50/tonne, depending on the energy content of the coal), but results for two natural gas prices are also shown ($6/GJ or $6.33/million Btu HHV, and $16/GJ, or $16.88/million Btu HHV) to illustrate how strongly the competitiveness of natural gas plants depends on fuel price. The cost shown for CO2 disposal is estimated to be $6.30 per tonne CO2 for PC-CCS and $6.80 per tonne CO2 for IGCC-CCS and about $9 per tonne CO2 for natural gas. See Annex 7.A for a discussion of variability and uncertainties in the cost of CO2 disposal.

FIGURE 7.5 Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) estimated for various types of coal-fired and natural-gas-fired power plants at zero carbon price. These estimates, like those for other technologies, do not necessarily include all of the site-specific costs of building a plant nor all of the real-world contingencies that may be needed depending on economic conditions (see Box 7.2 for more discussion). The price of coal is fixed at $1.71/GJ, or $1.80/million Btu HHV (approximately equivalent to $50/tonne, depending on the energy content of the coal), but results for two natural gas prices are also shown ($6/GJ or $6.33/million Btu HHV, and $16/GJ, or $16.88/million Btu HHV) to illustrate how strongly the competitiveness of natural gas plants depends on fuel price. The cost shown for CO2disposal is estimated to be $6.30 per tonne CO2for PC-CCS and $6.80 per tonne CO2for IGCC-CCS and about $9 per tonne CO2for natural gas. See Annex 7.A for a discussion of variability and uncertainties in the cost of CO2disposal.

Source: Princeton Environmental Institute.

plant is considerably less than the cost of any first-of-a-kind plant that could be built today. Typical values of N are between 5 and 10.22

22

The estimation assumptions used here (exclusion of some contingencies that may be needed for first rather than Nth plants, contingencies that may be needed under some cost environments; various owner’s costs; no additional escalation beyond 2007 dollars; and so on) may result in plant cost estimates in Figure 7.4 that are lower than other quoted cost estimates by 20 to 50 percent or more (see Box 7.2 for a more detailed discussion of possible reasons for differences



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