FIGURE 2.4 Estimates of potential for gasoline consumption reduction in the U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet in 2020 and 2035 (relative to 2007). Current (2007) U.S. gasoline consumption in LDVs is shown on the left. This consumption estimate, which was developed by the committee, includes gasoline-equivalent diesel fuel consumption in LDVs as well as fuel consumption in LDVs between 8,500 and 10,000 lb weight (the new Environmental Protection Agency upper limit on light trucks). Projected gasoline consumption in LDVs in 2020 and 2035 is shown by the middle set of bars. The projected consumption shown is an illustrative, no-change baseline scenario, where any efficiency improvements in powertrain and vehicle are offset by increases in vehicle performance, size, and weight. This baseline is described in more detail in Chapter 4 in Part 2 of this report. To estimate savings, an accelerated deployment of technologies as described in Part 2 of this report is assumed. Specifically, fuel efficiency improvements result from an optimistic illustrative scenario in which the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 are met in 2020. This scenario assumes that fuel economy for new LDVs continues to improve until it reaches, in 2035, double today’s value. Combining the projected growth in vehicle fleet size with the potential efficiency savings results in only slightly higher gasoline consumption in vehicles in 2020 and 2035 than exists today. A more conservative illustrative scenario, which results in savings of 1.0 and 4.3 million barrels of gasoline per day in 2020 and 2035, respectively, is also shown in Part 2 of this report. Beyond 2020, a 1 percent compounded annual growth in new vehicle sales and annual mileage per vehicle, combined, is assumed. Gasoline consumption can be further reduced if vehicle use (vehicle miles traveled) is reduced. All values have been rounded to two significant figures.
Source: Data from Chapter 4 in Part 2 of this report.