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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation
FIGURE 2.12Estimates of the potential liquid fuel supply from conversion of coal toliquid fuels in 2020 and 2035 (relative to 2007) compared to total liquid fuel consumption. The current (2007) U.S. liquid fuel consumption, in barrels of oil, for transportation is shown on the left (in green). To estimate supply, an accelerated deployment oftechnologies as described inPart 2of this report is assumed for coal-to-liquid fuel (CTL)with carbon capture and storage (CCS). It is assumed that CTL without CCS would notbe deployed. There is uncertainty associated with the technical potential for CCS. CCStechnologies will need to be successfully demonstrated over the next decade if they areto be used for liquid fuel production in 2035. The volume of liquid fuel estimated to beavailable in 2020 and 2035 depends primarily on the rate of plant deployment. Potentialliquid fuel supplies are estimated individually for each technology, and estimates do notaccount for future fuel demand or competition among supply sources. Potential suppliesare expressed in barrels of gasoline equivalent. One barrel of oil produces about 0.85barrels of gasoline equivalent of gasoline and diesel. All values have been rounded totwo significant figures.
Sources: Data from Energy Information Administration (2008) andChapter 5inPart 2ofthis report.
liquid fuels; Figure 2.13). Cellulosic ethanol is in the early stages of demonstration, but coal-to-liquid fuels are being commercially produced today (but without geologic storage of CO2) outside the United States. Coal-to-liquid fuels technologies could be deployed domestically, but these technologies would have to be integrated with CCS to produce fuels with CO2 emissions similar to or less than those from petroleum-based fuels.