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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation
FIGURE 2.13Estimates of the potential liquid fuel supply from conversion of coal andbiomass to liquid fuels in 2020 and 2035 (relative to 2007) compared to total liquid fuelconsumption. The current (2007) U.S. liquid fuel consumption, in barrels of oil, for transportation is shown on the left (in green). To estimate supply, an accelerated deploymentof technologies as described inPart 2of this report is assumed. A mix of 60 percent coaland 40 percent biomass (on an energy basis) is assumed as well. The volume of liquidfuels estimated to be available in 2020 and 2035 depends primarily on the rate of plantdeployment and also assumes availability of 500 million dry tonnes per year of cellulosicbiomass for fuel production after 2020. The supply of cellulosic ethanol estimated inFigure 2.11cannot be achieved simultaneously with this coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuel(CBTL) supply, as the same biomass is used in each case. There is uncertainty associatedwith the technical potential for carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS technologies willneed to be successfully demonstrated over the next decade if they are to be used for liquid fuel production in 2035. Potential liquid fuel supplies are estimated individually foreach technology, and estimates do not account for future fuel demand, competition forbiomass, or competition among supply sources. Potential supplies are expressed in barrelsof gasoline equivalent. One barrel of oil produces about 0.85 barrels of gasoline equivalent of gasoline and diesel. All values have been rounded to two significant figures.
Sources: Data from Energy Information Administration (2008) andChapter 5inPart 2ofthis report.