FIGURE 2.14 Estimated gasoline-equivalent costs of alternative liquid fuels. For comparison, the costs of gasoline at crude oil prices of $60 per barrel and $100 per barrel are shown on the left. Estimated costs assume that a zero price is assigned to CO2 emissions. Liquid fuels would be produced using biochemical conversion to produce ethanol from Miscanthus or using thermochemical conversion via Fischer-Tropsch or methanol-to-gasoline. All costs are in 2007 dollars and are rounded to the nearest $5. Note: BTL = biomass-to-liquid fuel; CBTL = coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuel; CCS = carbon capture and storage; CTL = coal-to-liquid fuel.

FIGURE 2.14 Estimated gasoline-equivalent costs of alternative liquid fuels. For comparison, the costs of gasoline at crude oil prices of $60 per barrel and $100 per barrel are shown on the left. Estimated costs assume that a zero price is assigned to CO2emissions. Liquid fuels would be produced using biochemical conversion to produce ethanol from Miscanthus or using thermochemical conversion via Fischer-Tropsch or methanol-to-gasoline. All costs are in 2007 dollars and are rounded to the nearest $5. Note: BTL = biomass-to-liquid fuel; CBTL = coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuel; CCS = carbon capture and storage; CTL = coal-to-liquid fuel.

Source: Data from Chapter 5 in Part 2 of this report.

Additional reductions in petroleum imports would be possible by increasing the electrification of the vehicle fleet. The widespread deployment of electric and/or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles between 2035 and 2050 could lead to further and possibly substantial long-term reductions in liquid fuel consumption in the transportation sector. The National Research Council (2008), for example, estimated the potential reduction in petroleum use in 2050 from the deployment of hydrogen fuel-cell LDVs under a best-case scenario to be about 70 percent below the projected petroleum consumption of a fleet of comparable gasoline-fueled vehicles. The LDV fleet turns over every one to two decades, so the introduction of higher-efficiency vehicles would have relatively low impacts on petroleum use and CO2 emissions from the transportation sector until sometime after the 2020–2030 period.



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement