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EmErging CognitivE nEurosCiEnCE
and Related technologies
Committee on Military and Intelligence Methodology for
Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science Research in
the Next Two Decades
Standing Committee for Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences
Division on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board
of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences
and with regard for appropriate balance.
This is a report of work supported by contract HHM40205D0011 between the Defense Intel-
ligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or
recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Emerging cognitive neuroscience and related technologies / Committee on Military and
Intelligence Methodology for Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science
Research in the Next Two Decades, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National
Research Council of the
National Academies.
p. ; cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN-13: 978-0-309-11894-1 (pbk.)
ISBN-10: 0-309-11894-8 (pbk.)
1. Cognitive neuroscience—Technological innovations. 2. Cognitive neuroscience—
Forecasting. 3. Military intelligence. 4. Intelligence service. I. National Research
Council (U.S.). Committee on Military and Intelligence Methodology for Emergent
Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science Research in the Next Two Decades.
[DNLM: 1. Cognitive Science—trends. 2. Neurosciences. 3. Military Science. 4. Security
Measures. 5. Technology, Medical—trends. WL 100 E527 2008]
QP360.5.E44 2008
612.8’2—dc22
2008041235
Limited copies of this report are Additional copies are available from:
available from:
Division on Engineering and Physical The National Academies Press
Sciences 500 Fifth Street, N.W.
National Research Council Lockbox 285
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20055
Washington, DC 20001 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313
(202) 334-3111 (in the Washington metropolitan area)
Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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COMMITTEE ON MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE METHODOLOGY
FOR EMERGENT NEUROPHYSIOLOGICAL AND COGNITIVE/
NEURAL SCIENCE RESEARCH IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES
CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN, Chair, Wayne State University School of Medicine
DIANE E. GRIFFIN, Vice Chair, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of
Public Health
JAMES J. BLASCOVICH, University of California, Santa Barbara
JEFFREY M. BRADSHAW, Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition
SCOTT C. BUNCE, Drexel University College of Medicine
JOHN GANNON, BAE Systems, McLean, Virginia
MICHAEL GAZZANIGA, SAGE Center for Study of the Mind, University of
California, Santa Barbara
ELIZABETH LOFTUS, University of California, Irvine
GREGORY J. MOORE, Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine
JONATHAN MORENO, University of Pennsylvania
JOHN R. RASURE, Mind Research Network
MARK (DANNY) RINTOUL, Sandia National Laboratories
NATHAN D. SCHWADE, Los Alamos National Laboratory
RONALD L. SMITH, University of Nevada School of Medicine
KAREN S. WALCH, Thunderbird School of Global Management
ALICE M. YOUNG, Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center
Staff
MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead DEPS Board Director
CARTER W. FORD, Study Director
DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Program Officer
DETRA BODRICK-SHORTER, Administrative Coordinator (to February 2008)
ENITA WILLIAMS, Research Associate
URRIKKA WOODS, Program Associate
DIONNA ALI, Anderson Commonweal Intern
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STANDING COMMITTEE FOR TECHNOLOGY, INSIGHT—GAUGE,
EVALUATE, AND REVIEW
RUTH A. DAVID, Chair, ANSER, Inc., Arlington, Virginia
RODNEY L. ADKINS, IBM Systems and Technology Group, Somers, New York
STEVEN R.J. BRUECK, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
ANN N. CAMPBELL, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico
STEPHEN W. DREW, Science Partners, LLC, Summit, New Jersey
ALAN H. EPSTEIN, Pratt and Whitney, East Hartford, Connecticut
ROBERT A. FUHRMAN, Lockheed Corporation (retired), Pebble Beach,
California
JOHN GANNON, BAE Systems, McLean, Virginia
SHARON C. GLOTZER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN, Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan
LESLIE GREENGARD, New York University, New York
DIANE E. GRIFFIN, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,
Baltimore, Maryland
J.C. HERZ, Batchtags, LLC, Alexandria, Virginia
J. JEROME HOLTON, ARES Systems Group, Alexandria, Virginia
FREDERICK R. LOPEZ, AMC Incorporated, Goleta, California
GILMAN G. LOUIE, Alsop-Louie Partners, San Francisco, California
JULIE J.C.H. RYAN, George Washington University, Washington, D.C.
JAMES B. SMITH, Raytheon Aircraft Company, Andover, Massachusetts
DIANNE S. WILEY, The Boeing Company, Arlington, Virginia
Staff
MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead DEPS Board Director
CARTER W. FORD, Program Officer
DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Program Officer
DETRA BODRICK-SHORTER, Administrative Coordinator (to February 2008)
ENITA WILLIAMS, Research Associate
URRIKKA WOODS, Program Associate
RESHAWN ELLIS, Program Assistant
i
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BOARD ON BEHAVIORAL, COGNITIVE, AND SENSORY SCIENCES
PHILIP E. RUBIN, Chair, Haskins Laboratories and Department of Surgery,
Yale University
LINDA M. BARTOSHUK, Department of Psychology, University of Florida
SUSAN E. CAREY, Department of Psychology, Harvard University
MARTIN FISHBEIN, Annenberg School for Communication, University of
Pennsylvania
LILA R. GLEITMAN, Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania
ARIE W. KRUGLANSKI, Department of Psychology, University of Maryland
RICHARD E. NISBETT, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor
VALERIE F. REYNA, Department of Human Development, Cornell University
LISA M. SAVAGE, Department of Psychology, State University of New York,
Binghamton
BRIAN A. WANDELL, Department of Psychology, Stanford University
J. FRANK YATES, Judgment and Decision Laboratory, University of
Michigan, Ann Arbor
Staff
CHRISTINE R. HARTEL, Director (to December 2007)
ii
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Preface
The intelligence community (IC) faces voluminous amounts of scientific
information produced and available on a global scale. To improve analysis of the
information, the Technology Warning Division (TWD) of the Defense Intelligence
Agency’s (DIA’s) Defense Warning Office (DWO) asked the National Research
Council (NRC), in 2004, to establish the Committee on Defense Intelligence
Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews. That committee authored the report
Aoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Adances.1 Aoiding Surprise
provided the IC with a technology warning methodology not previously available
to it and led the DIA to request that the NRC establish a standing committee to
continue to provide related assistance. In May 2005, the Standing Committee for
Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review (TIGER) was established to
assist the DWO of DIA in formulating future studies to be completed by NRC ad
hoc committees. This report of the ad hoc Committee on Military and Intelligence
Methodology for Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science
Research in the Next Two Decades is the third report to be produced under the
purview of the TIGER Standing Committee.2
We wish to express our sincere appreciation to the committee members, the
staff of the DWO/TWD and their IC partners for their sponsorship and active
participation, and Angelique Reitsma of the University of Pennsylvania. We also
1 National Research Council. 2005. Aoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Adances.
Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. Available from http://www.nap.edu/catalog.
php?record_id=11286.
2 The previous reports in the series were Critical Technology Accessibility (2006) and Nano
photonics: Accessibility and Applicability (2008), both published by the National Academies Press,
Washington, D.C.
ix
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x prEfACE
appreciate the contribution of the staff of the TIGER Standing Committee led by
Mike Clarke and the staff of the Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory
Sciences led by Chris Hartel.
Christopher C. (Kit) Green, Chair
Diane E. Griffin, Vice Chair
Committee on Military and Intelligence Methodology for
Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural
Science Research in the Next Two Decades
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures
approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Com-
mittee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical
comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as
possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity,
evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft
manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Floyd Bloom (NAS, IOM), The Scripps Research Institute,
Ruth David (NAE), ANSER, Inc.,
Robert Desimone (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
David Dinges, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine,
Stephen Drew (NAE), Drew Solutions LLC,
Michelle Gelfand, University of Maryland,
Gilbert Omenn (IOM), University of Michigan Medical School,
Richard Pew, BBN Technologies,
Mark Rise, Medtronic, Inc.,
Richard Thompson (NAS), University of Southern California, and
Charles Wilson (IOM), HealthTech.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com-
ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recom-
mendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The
xi
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xii ACKNOWLEDGMENT Of rEVIEWErS
review of this report was overseen by John Bailar (IOM), University of Chicago
(emeritus), and Richard Davidson, University of Wisconsin, Madison. Appointed
by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent exami-
nation of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures
and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the
final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the
institution.
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Contents
SUMMARY 1
1 THE BIG PICTURE: BRIDGING THE SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY FOR THE DECISION MAKER 13
Introduction and Study Origin, 13
What Decision Makers Want to Know, 16
Report Structure, 17
References, 17
2 CURRENT COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE RESEARCH AND
TECHNOLOGY: SELECTED AREAS OF INTEREST 18
Introduction, 18
Challenges to the Detection of Psychological States and Intentions via
Neurophysiological Activity, 18
Overview, 18
Barriers to Identifying Psychological States and Intentions via
Neural Activity, 21
Detection of Deception as an Example of Efforts to Identify
Accurate Neurophysiological Indexes of Specific Psychological
States in Individuals, 32
Neuropsychopharmacology, 41
Overview, 41
Cognition Enhancers, 45
Implications for Agents That May Act to Change or Disrupt
Various Aspects of Human Psychology, 46
xiii
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xi CONTENTS
Nanotechnology in Medicine, 47
Functional Neuroimaging, 51
Introduction, 51
Electroencephalography, 54
Positron Emission Tomography, 56
Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging, 57
Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy, 58
Magnetoelectroencephalography, 61
Transcranial Ultrasonography, 61
Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy, 62
Monitoring Advanced Cognitive Processes via Neuroimaging, 65
References, 66
3 EMERGING AREAS OF COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE AND
NEUROTECHNOLOGIES 76
Introduction, 76
Computational Biology Applied to Cognition, Functional Neuroimaging,
Genomics, and Proteomics, 76
Analysis of Experimental Data, 77
Physiologically Plausible Models of Human Cognition and Affect, 79
Proteomics and Genomics, 80
Distributed Human-Machine Systems, 83
Brain-Machine Interfaces, 84
Robotic Prostheses and Orthotics, 86
Cognitive and Sensory Prostheses, 89
Software and Robotic Assistants, 94
References, 99
4 CULTURAL AND ETHICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF SOCIAL
NEUROSCIENCE 103
Introductiom, 103
Cultural Underpinnings of Social Neuroscience, 103
Introduction, 103
Culture and the Unit of Analysis, 104
Need for Cultural Due Diligence, 105
Determination of Intent, 109
Finding and Recommendation, 112
Ethical Implications of Cognitive Neuroscience and Related
Technologies, 113
Introduction, 113
Ethics, Cognitive Neuroscience, and National-Security Research, 119
International Standards and Controls, 120
References, 121
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x
CONTENTS
5 POTENTIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MILITARY APPLICATIONS OF
COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE AND RELATED TECHNOLOGIES 124
Introduction, 124
Market Drivers of Cognitive Neuroscience and Related Technologies as
Indicators of the Demand for COTS Technologies, 127
Overview, 127
The Search for New and Patentable Neurophysiological Agents, 129
Market Barriers and How the Drivers May Change, 130
Technology Assessments: Neuropsychopharmacology, 134
Technology Assessments: Distributed Human-Machine Systems and
Computational Biology, 140
Findings and Recommendation, 141
References, 144
APPENDIXES
A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 149
B Meetings and Speakers 157
C Committee Methodology 162
D Background Information on Functional Neuroimaging 173
E Background Information on Neuroethics 182
F True and False Memories as an Illustrative Case of the Difficulty of
Developing Accurate and Practical Neurophysiological Indexes of
Psychological States 192
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Acronyms
ABC ATP-binding cassette
ACh acetylcholine
AugCog augmented cognition
BBB blood-brain barrier
BCI brain–computer interface
BMI brain–machine interface
BOLD blood-oxygenation-level-dependent
CBF cerebral blood flow
CIA Central Intelligence Agency
CIOMS Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences
CNS central nervous system
COM cultural orientation model
COTS commercial off-the-shelf (technology)
CT computed tomography
CW continuous wave
DEPS Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
DHMS distributed Human-Machine system
DIA Defense Intelligence Agency
DOD Department of Defense
DoH Declaration of Helsinki
DWO Defense Warning Office
xii
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xiii ACrONYMS
EAP electroactive polymer
EEG electroencephalography
EFGCP European Forum for Good Clinical Practice
EMG electromyography
ERP event-related potential
FDA Food and Drug Administration
fMRI functional magnetic resonance imaging
fNIR functional near-infrared spectroscopic imaging
fTDS functional transcranial Doppler sonography
GABA gamma aminobutyric acid
HPC high-performance computing
HSCB human, social, cultural, and behavioral
HTS Human Terrain System
HTT Human Terrain Team
IC intelligence community
ICH International Conference on Harmonization
IED improvised explosive device
IQ intelligence quotient
IR infrared
IRB institutional review board
LED light-emitting diode
LSD lysergic acid diethylamide
MAO monoamine oxidase
MEG magnetoencephalography
MOHME Ministry of Health and Medical Education
MPTP 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine
MR magnetic resonance
MRI magnetic resonance imaging
MRS magnetic resonance spectroscopy
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NIH CATIE National Institutes of Health Clinical Antipsychotic Trials of
Intervention Effectiveness
NIMH National Institute of Mental Health
NIRS near-infrared spectroscopy
NIRSI near-infrared spectroscopy imaging
NLP neuro-linguistic programming
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xix
ACrONYMS
NRC National Research Council
PET positron emission tomography
PLA People’s Liberation Army
POW prisoner of war
PTSD post-traumatic stress disorder
QEEG quantitative electroencephalography
RNA ribonucleic acid
SCP slow cortical potential
SMR sensorimotor rhythm
SQUID superconducting quantum interference device
S&T science and technology
tCDS transcranial direct current stimulation system
THC tetrahydrocannabinol
TIGER (Standing Committee on) Technology Insight—Gauge,
Evaluate and Review
TWD Technology Warning Division
UN United Nations
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization
WMA World Medical Association
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