EMERGING COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE AND RELATED TECHNOLOGIES

Committee on Military and Intelligence Methodology for Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science Research in the Next Two Decades

Standing Committee for Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences

Division on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

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EmErging CognitivE nEurosCiEnCE and Related technologies Committee on Military and Intelligence Methodology for Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science Research in the Next Two Decades Standing Committee for Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences Division on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This is a report of work supported by contract HHM40205D0011 between the Defense Intel- ligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Emerging cognitive neuroscience and related technologies / Committee on Military and Intelligence Methodology for Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science Research in the Next Two Decades, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council of the National Academies. p. ; cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN-13: 978-0-309-11894-1 (pbk.) ISBN-10: 0-309-11894-8 (pbk.) 1. Cognitive neuroscience—Technological innovations. 2. Cognitive neuroscience— Forecasting. 3. Military intelligence. 4. Intelligence service. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Military and Intelligence Methodology for Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science Research in the Next Two Decades. [DNLM: 1. Cognitive Science—trends. 2. Neurosciences. 3. Military Science. 4. Security Measures. 5. Technology, Medical—trends. WL 100 E527 2008] QP360.5.E44 2008 612.8’2—dc22 2008041235 Limited copies of this report are Additional copies are available from: available from: Division on Engineering and Physical The National Academies Press Sciences 500 Fifth Street, N.W. National Research Council Lockbox 285 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20055 Washington, DC 20001 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (202) 334-3111 (in the Washington metropolitan area) Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examina- tion of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering com- munities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE METHODOLOGY FOR EMERGENT NEUROPHYSIOLOGICAL AND COGNITIVE/ NEURAL SCIENCE RESEARCH IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN, Chair, Wayne State University School of Medicine DIANE E. GRIFFIN, Vice Chair, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health JAMES J. BLASCOVICH, University of California, Santa Barbara JEFFREY M. BRADSHAW, Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition SCOTT C. BUNCE, Drexel University College of Medicine JOHN GANNON, BAE Systems, McLean, Virginia MICHAEL GAZZANIGA, SAGE Center for Study of the Mind, University of California, Santa Barbara ELIZABETH LOFTUS, University of California, Irvine GREGORY J. MOORE, Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine JONATHAN MORENO, University of Pennsylvania JOHN R. RASURE, Mind Research Network MARK (DANNY) RINTOUL, Sandia National Laboratories NATHAN D. SCHWADE, Los Alamos National Laboratory RONALD L. SMITH, University of Nevada School of Medicine KAREN S. WALCH, Thunderbird School of Global Management ALICE M. YOUNG, Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center Staff MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead DEPS Board Director CARTER W. FORD, Study Director DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Program Officer DETRA BODRICK-SHORTER, Administrative Coordinator (to February 2008) ENITA WILLIAMS, Research Associate URRIKKA WOODS, Program Associate DIONNA ALI, Anderson Commonweal Intern 

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STANDING COMMITTEE FOR TECHNOLOGY, INSIGHT—GAUGE, EVALUATE, AND REVIEW RUTH A. DAVID, Chair, ANSER, Inc., Arlington, Virginia RODNEY L. ADKINS, IBM Systems and Technology Group, Somers, New York STEVEN R.J. BRUECK, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque ANN N. CAMPBELL, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico STEPHEN W. DREW, Science Partners, LLC, Summit, New Jersey ALAN H. EPSTEIN, Pratt and Whitney, East Hartford, Connecticut ROBERT A. FUHRMAN, Lockheed Corporation (retired), Pebble Beach, California JOHN GANNON, BAE Systems, McLean, Virginia SHARON C. GLOTZER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN, Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan LESLIE GREENGARD, New York University, New York DIANE E. GRIFFIN, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland J.C. HERZ, Batchtags, LLC, Alexandria, Virginia J. JEROME HOLTON, ARES Systems Group, Alexandria, Virginia FREDERICK R. LOPEZ, AMC Incorporated, Goleta, California GILMAN G. LOUIE, Alsop-Louie Partners, San Francisco, California JULIE J.C.H. RYAN, George Washington University, Washington, D.C. JAMES B. SMITH, Raytheon Aircraft Company, Andover, Massachusetts DIANNE S. WILEY, The Boeing Company, Arlington, Virginia Staff MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead DEPS Board Director CARTER W. FORD, Program Officer DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Program Officer DETRA BODRICK-SHORTER, Administrative Coordinator (to February 2008) ENITA WILLIAMS, Research Associate URRIKKA WOODS, Program Associate RESHAWN ELLIS, Program Assistant i

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BOARD ON BEHAVIORAL, COGNITIVE, AND SENSORY SCIENCES PHILIP E. RUBIN, Chair, Haskins Laboratories and Department of Surgery, Yale University LINDA M. BARTOSHUK, Department of Psychology, University of Florida SUSAN E. CAREY, Department of Psychology, Harvard University MARTIN FISHBEIN, Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania LILA R. GLEITMAN, Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania ARIE W. KRUGLANSKI, Department of Psychology, University of Maryland RICHARD E. NISBETT, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor VALERIE F. REYNA, Department of Human Development, Cornell University LISA M. SAVAGE, Department of Psychology, State University of New York, Binghamton BRIAN A. WANDELL, Department of Psychology, Stanford University J. FRANK YATES, Judgment and Decision Laboratory, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Staff CHRISTINE R. HARTEL, Director (to December 2007) ii

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Preface The intelligence community (IC) faces voluminous amounts of scientific information produced and available on a global scale. To improve analysis of the information, the Technology Warning Division (TWD) of the Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA’s) Defense Warning Office (DWO) asked the National Research Council (NRC), in 2004, to establish the Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews. That committee authored the report Aoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Adances.1 Aoiding Surprise provided the IC with a technology warning methodology not previously available to it and led the DIA to request that the NRC establish a standing committee to continue to provide related assistance. In May 2005, the Standing Committee for Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review (TIGER) was established to assist the DWO of DIA in formulating future studies to be completed by NRC ad hoc committees. This report of the ad hoc Committee on Military and Intelligence Methodology for Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science Research in the Next Two Decades is the third report to be produced under the purview of the TIGER Standing Committee.2 We wish to express our sincere appreciation to the committee members, the staff of the DWO/TWD and their IC partners for their sponsorship and active participation, and Angelique Reitsma of the University of Pennsylvania. We also 1 National Research Council. 2005. Aoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Adances. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. Available from http://www.nap.edu/catalog. php?record_id=11286. 2 The previous reports in the series were Critical Technology Accessibility (2006) and Nano­ photonics: Accessibility and Applicability (2008), both published by the National Academies Press, Washington, D.C. ix

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x prEfACE appreciate the contribution of the staff of the TIGER Standing Committee led by Mike Clarke and the staff of the Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences led by Chris Hartel. Christopher C. (Kit) Green, Chair Diane E. Griffin, Vice Chair Committee on Military and Intelligence Methodology for Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science Research in the Next Two Decades

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Com- mittee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Floyd Bloom (NAS, IOM), The Scripps Research Institute, Ruth David (NAE), ANSER, Inc., Robert Desimone (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, David Dinges, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Stephen Drew (NAE), Drew Solutions LLC, Michelle Gelfand, University of Maryland, Gilbert Omenn (IOM), University of Michigan Medical School, Richard Pew, BBN Technologies, Mark Rise, Medtronic, Inc., Richard Thompson (NAS), University of Southern California, and Charles Wilson (IOM), HealthTech. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recom- mendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The xi

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xii ACKNOWLEDGMENT Of rEVIEWErS review of this report was overseen by John Bailar (IOM), University of Chicago (emeritus), and Richard Davidson, University of Wisconsin, Madison. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent exami- nation of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 THE BIG PICTURE: BRIDGING THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR THE DECISION MAKER 13 Introduction and Study Origin, 13 What Decision Makers Want to Know, 16 Report Structure, 17 References, 17 2 CURRENT COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY: SELECTED AREAS OF INTEREST 18 Introduction, 18 Challenges to the Detection of Psychological States and Intentions via Neurophysiological Activity, 18 Overview, 18 Barriers to Identifying Psychological States and Intentions via Neural Activity, 21 Detection of Deception as an Example of Efforts to Identify Accurate Neurophysiological Indexes of Specific Psychological States in Individuals, 32 Neuropsychopharmacology, 41 Overview, 41 Cognition Enhancers, 45 Implications for Agents That May Act to Change or Disrupt Various Aspects of Human Psychology, 46 xiii

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xi CONTENTS Nanotechnology in Medicine, 47 Functional Neuroimaging, 51 Introduction, 51 Electroencephalography, 54 Positron Emission Tomography, 56 Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging, 57 Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy, 58 Magnetoelectroencephalography, 61 Transcranial Ultrasonography, 61 Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy, 62 Monitoring Advanced Cognitive Processes via Neuroimaging, 65 References, 66 3 EMERGING AREAS OF COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE AND NEUROTECHNOLOGIES 76 Introduction, 76 Computational Biology Applied to Cognition, Functional Neuroimaging, Genomics, and Proteomics, 76 Analysis of Experimental Data, 77 Physiologically Plausible Models of Human Cognition and Affect, 79 Proteomics and Genomics, 80 Distributed Human-Machine Systems, 83 Brain-Machine Interfaces, 84 Robotic Prostheses and Orthotics, 86 Cognitive and Sensory Prostheses, 89 Software and Robotic Assistants, 94 References, 99 4 CULTURAL AND ETHICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF SOCIAL NEUROSCIENCE 103 Introductiom, 103 Cultural Underpinnings of Social Neuroscience, 103 Introduction, 103 Culture and the Unit of Analysis, 104 Need for Cultural Due Diligence, 105 Determination of Intent, 109 Finding and Recommendation, 112 Ethical Implications of Cognitive Neuroscience and Related Technologies, 113 Introduction, 113 Ethics, Cognitive Neuroscience, and National-Security Research, 119 International Standards and Controls, 120 References, 121

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x CONTENTS 5 POTENTIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MILITARY APPLICATIONS OF COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE AND RELATED TECHNOLOGIES 124 Introduction, 124 Market Drivers of Cognitive Neuroscience and Related Technologies as Indicators of the Demand for COTS Technologies, 127 Overview, 127 The Search for New and Patentable Neurophysiological Agents, 129 Market Barriers and How the Drivers May Change, 130 Technology Assessments: Neuropsychopharmacology, 134 Technology Assessments: Distributed Human-Machine Systems and Computational Biology, 140 Findings and Recommendation, 141 References, 144 APPENDIXES A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 149 B Meetings and Speakers 157 C Committee Methodology 162 D Background Information on Functional Neuroimaging 173 E Background Information on Neuroethics 182 F True and False Memories as an Illustrative Case of the Difficulty of Developing Accurate and Practical Neurophysiological Indexes of Psychological States 192

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Acronyms ABC ATP-binding cassette ACh acetylcholine AugCog augmented cognition BBB blood-brain barrier BCI brain–computer interface BMI brain–machine interface BOLD blood-oxygenation-level-dependent CBF cerebral blood flow CIA Central Intelligence Agency CIOMS Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences CNS central nervous system COM cultural orientation model COTS commercial off-the-shelf (technology) CT computed tomography CW continuous wave DEPS Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences DHMS distributed Human-Machine system DIA Defense Intelligence Agency DOD Department of Defense DoH Declaration of Helsinki DWO Defense Warning Office xii

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xiii ACrONYMS EAP electroactive polymer EEG electroencephalography EFGCP European Forum for Good Clinical Practice EMG electromyography ERP event-related potential FDA Food and Drug Administration fMRI functional magnetic resonance imaging fNIR functional near-infrared spectroscopic imaging fTDS functional transcranial Doppler sonography GABA gamma aminobutyric acid HPC high-performance computing HSCB human, social, cultural, and behavioral HTS Human Terrain System HTT Human Terrain Team IC intelligence community ICH International Conference on Harmonization IED improvised explosive device IQ intelligence quotient IR infrared IRB institutional review board LED light-emitting diode LSD lysergic acid diethylamide MAO monoamine oxidase MEG magnetoencephalography MOHME Ministry of Health and Medical Education MPTP 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine MR magnetic resonance MRI magnetic resonance imaging MRS magnetic resonance spectroscopy NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NIH CATIE National Institutes of Health Clinical Antipsychotic Trials of Intervention Effectiveness NIMH National Institute of Mental Health NIRS near-infrared spectroscopy NIRSI near-infrared spectroscopy imaging NLP neuro-linguistic programming

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xix ACrONYMS NRC National Research Council PET positron emission tomography PLA People’s Liberation Army POW prisoner of war PTSD post-traumatic stress disorder QEEG quantitative electroencephalography RNA ribonucleic acid SCP slow cortical potential SMR sensorimotor rhythm SQUID superconducting quantum interference device S&T science and technology tCDS transcranial direct current stimulation system THC tetrahydrocannabinol TIGER (Standing Committee on) Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate and Review TWD Technology Warning Division UN United Nations UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization WMA World Medical Association

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