5
Meeting the Challenges

Adaptation to climate change would be necessary even if drastic mitigation measures were taken immediately to stabilize or even eliminate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IPCC 2007). The effects of such global climate changes as warming temperatures and sea level rise occurring today reflect emissions of GHGs released into the atmosphere over the past century. Because of these long-lasting effects, the actions taken by transportation professionals today have implications for how the transportation system will respond to climate change in the near and long terms.

The first section of this chapter is organized on the basis of timescales that transportation decision makers must consider in determining how best to adapt to climate change. In the short term (i.e., the next several decades), transportation professionals are likely to have operational responses to changing climate conditions and climate extremes. Operators of transportation systems already react to many climate changes, particularly extreme events (e.g., intense precipitation, intense tropical storms) and can rapidly adapt operating and maintenance practices for those climate conditions projected to increase in frequency or intensity.

Rehabilitating or retrofitting infrastructure requires a longer time horizon because engineers design many infrastructure facilities with long service lives in mind (see Chapter 4), thereby providing fewer opportunities for adapting to changing climate conditions without incurring significant costs. Adapting facilities for climate change may also involve the reevaluation and development of design standards—a process that typically entails a lengthy research and testing program.

Finally, constructing new transportation infrastructure or providing major additions to existing transportation systems requires the longest time horizon. Transportation systems shape land use and development



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5 Meeting the Challenges A daptation to climate change would be necessary even if drastic mitigation measures were taken immediately to stabilize or even eliminate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IPCC 2007). The effects of such global climate changes as warming temperatures and sea level rise occurring today reflect emissions of GHGs released into the atmosphere over the past century. Because of these long-lasting effects, the actions taken by transportation professionals today have implications for how the trans- portation system will respond to climate change in the near and long terms. The first section of this chapter is organized on the basis of timescales that transportation decision makers must consider in determining how best to adapt to climate change. In the short term (i.e., the next several decades), transportation professionals are likely to have operational responses to changing climate conditions and climate extremes. Operators of transportation systems already react to many climate changes, particu- larly extreme events (e.g., intense precipitation, intense tropical storms) and can rapidly adapt operating and maintenance practices for those cli- mate conditions projected to increase in frequency or intensity. Rehabilitating or retrofitting infrastructure requires a longer time hori- zon because engineers design many infrastructure facilities with long service lives in mind (see Chapter 4), thereby providing fewer opportunities for adapting to changing climate conditions without incurring significant costs. Adapting facilities for climate change may also involve the reevaluation and development of design standards—a process that typically entails a lengthy research and testing program. Finally, constructing new transportation infrastructure or providing major additions to existing transportation systems requires the longest time horizon. Transportation systems shape land use and development 148

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Meeting the Challenges 149 patterns, and in turn, population growth and economic development stimulate demand for new infrastructure facilities to support growth. In both cases, decisions made today about where to locate or expand trans- portation infrastructure establish development patterns that persist for generations and are difficult to change. These decisions should be weighed carefully to ensure that people and businesses are not placed in harm’s way as projected climate changes unfold. Following discussion of these topics, the chapter turns to many cross- cutting issues—flood insurance; monitoring technologies and new materials; data, models, and decision support tools; and new partnerships and organizational arrangements—that can help facilitate adaptation to climate change or bring climate change issues into the decision-making process. The chapter ends with the committee’s findings. ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Annexes 5-1A through 5-1C summarize a wide range of adaptation mea- sures that can be used to address many of the climate change impacts discussed in Chapter 3 (see Annex 3-1). Potential adaptations are identi- fied for land, marine, and air transportation, respectively, by response category: (a) changes in operations, (b) changes in infrastructure design and materials, and (c) other. No attempt is made to estimate the relative costs or effectiveness of these measures, although such analyses would be necessary to evaluate specific infrastructure investment alternatives. The remainder of this section addresses the key issues and opportunities for adaptation in each response category. Operational Responses The most rapid response to the impacts of climate change is likely to come through changes in transportation operating and maintenance practices.1 Every U.S. transportation provider already experiences the adverse impacts of weather on operations under a diverse range of climate conditions. For example, approximately 75 percent of air travel delays in the National Airspace System are weather related (L. Maurice and M. Gupta, presenta- tion to the committee, Jan. 4, 2007). Slick pavement and adverse weather This section draws heavily on the paper by Lockwood (2006) commissioned for this study. 1

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150 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation contribute to nearly one-quarter of all highway crashes and about 7,400 fatalities annually.2 In addition, snow, ice, rain, and fog cause about 15 per- cent of total delays on the nation’s highways (FHWA 2004; NRC 2004b). Weather also causes delays and interruptions in service for railroad and marine transportation.3 Transportation agencies expend considerable resources to address these conditions. For example, snow and ice control accounts for about 40 percent of annual highway operating budgets in snowbelt states (FHWA 2006a). Hurricane response is a major focus of transportation operations in states bordering the Gulf Coast. Collaboration between departments of transportation (DOTs) and emergency response personnel has improved, particularly in those areas of the country subject to recurring natural disasters—the Gulf Coast (hurricanes) and California (earthquakes and wildfires)—but still has a long way to go. Climate change is altering the frequency, intensity, and incidence of weather events. Changes in Frequency of Extreme Weather Events With changes in the frequency of extreme weather events, operational responses treated today on an ad hoc, emergency basis are likely to become part of mainstream operations. One could imagine, for example, that if strong (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes increased in frequency as is likely, widespread establishment of evacuation routes and use of contraflow operations4 in affected areas might become as commonplace as snow emergency routes in the Northeast and Midwest. Mainstreaming such responses will require expanding the scope of the traditional operating focus of DOTs on traffic and incident management to include weather management, as well as improved training for operating personnel. Increases in Intensity of Weather Events Climate change is expected to trigger more extreme weather events, such as more intense precipitation, which are likely to produce areawide emergen- 2 Based on averages from 1995–2004 data collected by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and analyzed by Mitretek Systems. 3 See, for example, Changnon (2006) on the impacts of weather and climate on American railroading and a report by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research on the impacts of weather on surface transportation modes (OFCM 2002). 4 Contraflow involves the reversal of traffic flow on one or more of the inbound lanes and shoulders of roads and highways for use in the outbound direction to increase evacuation capacity in an emergency by using both sides of a roadway.

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Meeting the Challenges 151 cies and may require evacuation of areas vulnerable to flooding and storm surge. In the wake of September 11, 2001, and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has mandated an all-hazards approach to emergency planning and response and encouraged better evacuation planning (DHS 2006). Coordination among state and local emergency managers—the first responders in an emergency—has improved, and emergency operations centers (EOCs) have been estab- lished in many metropolitan areas as command posts that can be activated rapidly in an emergency. Typically, transportation is a support function, but the critical role it plays in emergency response and especially in evac- uation—a role that is likely to become more important as the climate changes—should be strengthened through increased collaboration between emergency managers and transportation providers and more representa- tion of transportation agencies and private transportation providers at EOCs. Operators of transportation systems also need to work more closely with weather forecasters and emergency response planners to convey their own lead-time requirements for providing the necessary personnel and equipment in an evacuation and protecting their own assets. Finally, a greater emphasis on emergency management as a separate functional responsibility within DOTs and other transportation providers is needed. Regional transportation management centers (TMCs) provide one location through which collaboration between transportation providers and emergency managers can occur (see Box 5-1). TMCs are currently focused on traffic monitoring and incident management through rapid deployment of police, fire and rescue, and emergency medical services. In some metropolitan areas, new functions are being added, such as better weather information and greater use of real-time traffic advisories, as well as links with emergency managers. Some TMCs are also serving as EOCs. However, integration of weather and emergency management functions in TMCs is still in its infancy according to a recent U.S. Department of Transportation assessment (FHWA 2006b). Changes in Incidence of Weather Patterns Climate changes will bring new weather patterns to previously unaffected areas of the United States. These changes, however, may not necessarily require the development of new operating and maintenance strategies. The United States has a diverse climate, ranging from subtropical to arctic

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152 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation BOX 5-1 Transportation Management Centers Improving the efficiency of the existing highway network involves the appli- cation of technologies, such as intelligent transportation systems (ITS), and control strategies, such as ramp metering, dynamic message signs, and incident management. In many large metropolitan areas, these devel- opments have been accompanied by establishment of regional transportation management centers (TMCs), which are seen as the cockpit or nerve center for monitoring traffic incidents and providing rapid police response, crash clearance, and travel advisories. Many TMCs are manned by staff from mul- tiple agencies and jurisdictions working as a team. Some TMCs are focused primarily on traffic and incident management. Others, such as Houston TranStar, have a broader scope. Opened in 1996, Houston TranStar is a consortium partnership of transportation and emer- gency management agencies in the greater Houston area housing engineers, law enforcement personnel, information technology specialists, and emer- gency managers. In addition to traffic monitoring and incident control, emergency management personnel from the Harris County Office of Emer- gency Management monitor potential emergencies due to severe weather using state-of-the-art technology, such as flood warning monitors, Doppler radar, satellite imagery, and weather data from the National Weather Service, to provide the public with real-time information. The city of Chicago recently opened a new City Incident Center (CIC), which integrates the city’s homeland security efforts with traffic services, among other activities. CIC follows on the creation of a Traffic Management Authority in 2005, dedicated to improving traffic flow through ITS technol- ogy and centralized control systems. The new facility will have positions dedicated to traffic management but will also provide a central location for communication among dispatch operators from all the relevant city depart- ments so they can respond rapidly and effectively in the event of an emergency (Inside ITS 2006). and from arid to wet, with several regions being subject to temperature extremes and such events as blizzards, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, wild- fires, avalanches, and mudslides. As climate patterns change, the transfer of best practices from one location to another will be essential. A mecha- nism is needed to encourage such information exchange, involving all

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Meeting the Challenges 153 transportation modes. This effort should build on existing technology transfer mechanisms, such as the Technology Implementation Group of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO).5 Design Strategies Operational responses are geared to addressing near-term impacts of climate change. To make decisions today about rehabilitating or retro- fitting transportation facilities, especially those with long design lives (see Table 4-2 in the previous chapter), transportation planners and engineers must consider how climate changes will affect these facilities 50 years or more from now. Adapting to climate change will also require reevaluation, development, and regular updating of design standards that guide infrastructure design. The purpose of design standards is to provide engineers with guidance on how to construct infrastructure for safe and reliable performance.6 These standards represent the uniform application of the best engineering knowledge, developed through years of experimental study and actual experience. Often they become embedded in regulatory requirements and funding programs.7 Design standards embody trade-offs between per- formance (e.g., safety, reliability) and cost. Faced with a myriad of factors that can affect performance, engineers typically select the most demand- ing parameter—the 100-year storm, the heaviest truck, the most powerful wind speed—as the basis for design, thereby building in a safety margin to minimize the chances of failure. Environmental factors are integral to the design of transportation infrastructure. Conditions such as temperature, freeze–thaw cycles, and duration and intensity of precipitation determine subsurface and founda- 5 The primary objective of AASHTO’s Technology Implementation Group, which grew out of an AASHTO task force’s successful effort to implement products of the Strategic Highway Research Program, is to provide leadership to state DOTs, local governments, and industry in the selection and promotion of ready-to-implement technologies. 6 This section draws heavily on the paper by Meyer (2006) commissioned for this study. 7 To be eligible for federal funding, for example, state and local governments must comply with federal standards with respect to lane and shoulder widths on highways and bridge clearances over navigable waterways. If the infrastructure is damaged or destroyed, federal agencies and insurers typically allow renovation or rebuilding only to replacement standards; upgrading is not a reimbursable cost.

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154 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation tion designs, choices of materials, and drainage capacity. The issue is whether current design standards are adequate to accommodate the cli- mate changes projected by scientists. Table 5-1 provides an assessment by Meyer (2006) of the principal climate-induced changes and their implica- tions for infrastructure design in both the short and long terms. Looking across all climate changes, the author notes that the most dominant impact is on those design elements most associated with forces resulting from water flows. This finding is not surprising in view of the extensive damage to transportation infrastructure and buildings caused by flooding and storm surge in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Climate changes, however, will not affect the design of all infrastructure modes equally, a second important observation. For example, wave action is more critical than temperature changes for coastal bridge design. Finally, climate extremes, such as stronger wind speeds, increased storm surges, and greater wave heights, will place the greatest demands on infrastructure because they are likely to push the limits of the performance range for which facilities were designed. How should engineering design decisions be modified to address cli- mate change, particularly for longer-lived infrastructure for which the uncertainties are greater regarding the magnitude and timing of climate changes? One option is to build to a more robust standard, assuming a greater frequency and magnitude of extreme events, without a full under- standing of future risks and presumably at greater cost. This strategy could be appropriate for major facilities in vulnerable locations (e.g., critical bridges and evacuation routes), but its high costs necessitate a highly selective approach. Another option is to upgrade parallel routes, but this alternative depends on the availability of right-of-way and the cost of upgrading. A third option is to build infrastructure with shorter design lives, presumably at lower cost, to be retrofitted as more knowledge about future climate conditions is gained. This alternative probably is not viable in the United States because of the disruption and negative public reaction resulting from more frequent retrofits of major facilities. Most states are adopting a “fast in, fast out, and stay out” approach to major reconstruc- tion projects. A final option is to hedge by building to current standards or making marginal improvements, recognizing that the infrastructure remains at risk and may require major improvements in the future. This alternative poses many of the same problems as the previous one. All four options involve important cost–risk reduction trade-offs that engineers

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TABLE 5-1 Climate-Induced Changes That Could Influence Transportation Infrastructure Design Climate-Change Changes in Phenomenon Environmental Condition Design Implications Temperature Over the short term,a minimal impact on Rising maximum change temperature; lower pavement or structural design; potential minimum tem- significant impact on road, bridge scour, and perature; wider culvert design in cold regions temperature range; Over the long term, possible significant impact on possible significant pavement and structural design; need for new impact on permafrost materials and better maintenance strategies Changing Worst-case scenario, Over the short term, could affect pavement and precipitation more precipitation; drainage design; need for greater attention to levels higher water tables; foundation conditions, more probabilistic greater levels of approaches to design floods, more targeted flooding; higher maintenance moisture content Over the long term, definite impact on foundation in soils design and design of drainage systems and culverts; impact on design of pavement subgrade and materials Wind loads Stronger wind speeds Over the short term, design factors for design and thus loads on wind speed might change; wind tunnel bridge structures; testing will have to consider more turbulent more turbulence wind conditions Over the long term, need for materials of greater strength; impact on design considerations for suspended and cable-stayed bridges Sea level rise Rising water levels in Over the long term, greater inundation of coastal coastal areas and areas; need for more stringent design stan- rivers; increases in dards for flooding and building in saturated severe coastal soils; greater protection of infrastructure flooding needed when higher sea levels combine with storm surges Greater storm Larger and more fre- Over the short term, need for design changes to surges and quent storm surges; bridge height in vulnerable areas; need for wave heights more powerful wave more probabilistic approach to predicting action storm surges Over the long term, need for changes to bridge design, both superstructure and founda- tions; changes in materials specifications; and more protective strategies for critical components a For purposes of this table, short term is defined as the next 30 to 40 years; long term is from 40 to 100 years. Source: Meyer 2006, Table 1.

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156 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation and planners can best address through a more strategic, risk-based approach to design and investment decisions, such as that described in the previous chapter. The approach taken by Transit New Zealand to deter- mine the necessity and feasibility of taking action now to protect the state highway network from the potential future impacts of climate change could also be instructive (see Box 5-2). More fundamentally, the scientific community and professional associ- ations must reevaluate design standards for transportation infrastructure that take climate change into account and begin the lengthy process of developing new standards where appropriate. Reexamination of design standards can be prompted by a single event, such as the damage to coastal highway bridges from Hurricane Katrina, when it became evident that the current state of practice—designing bridges for a riverine environment and a 50-year storm—was inadequate. The Federal Highway Admin- istration (FHWA) not only approved and shared in the cost of rebuilding the damaged bridges to a higher design standard but also recommended the development of more appropriate bridge design standards in general for a coastal environment that would take into account the combined effects of storm surge and wave action and assume a more severe storm event (e.g., a 100-year or even 500-year storm) (FHWA 2005a).8 Typically, however, the development of design standards follows a time-consuming and systematic process that involves professional organi- zations in an extensive research and testing program over a period of decades. Once the standards are in place, engineers are understandably reluctant to change them. A combination of the length of time required to modify or develop new standards, the institutional procedures for approval of standards (vetting any changes through professional committees of practicing engineers), and the use of well-established standards as evi- dence of “good practice” in litigation leads to a conservative approach to change. Developing standards to address climate change in a timely manner thus will require leadership by the scientific community and professional associations and, given the scope of potential impacts, a broad-based, federally sponsored research program that must begin soon. A good model is the congressionally mandated National Earthquake 8 AASHTO and state DOTs are leading this initiative, and research on wave forces and wave load design practices is now being undertaken by universities and the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Turner–Fairbank Highway Research Center, among others.

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Meeting the Challenges 157 BOX 5-2 Climate Change and Asset Management: New Zealand Transit’s Approach to Addressing Impacts of Climate Change Under the 2004 Resource Management (Energy and Climate Change) Amendment Act—New Zealand’s principal legislation for environmental management—Transit New Zealand was required to take into account the effects of climate change as it plans, constructs, and maintains the state highway network (Kinsella and McGuire 2005). The key climate changes of concern to state highways are sea level rise, coastal storm surges, and increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events. The primary assets at risk are bridges, culverts, causeways and coastal roads, pavement sur- faces, surface drainage, and hillside slopes. Transit New Zealand proceeded with a two-stage assessment to identify those areas requiring action. Stage 1 involved assessing the need to act now to manage future potential impacts of climate change. Three criteria were used: • Level of certainty that the climate change impact will occur at the magnitude predicted in the specified time frame, • Intended design life of the state highway asset, and • Capacity of the agency’s current asset management practice to man- age the impact. The results of the Stage 1 assessment revealed that current asset manage- ment practice is generally adequate to deal with impacts of climate change for most of the network, but that bridges and culverts with an intended design life of more than 25 years may require case-by-case consideration to ensure protection (Kinsella and McGuire 2005). Stage 2 involved assessing the economic feasibility of acting now to man- age future potential impacts of climate change and was focused on bridges and culverts with design lives of greater than 25 years. Making several sim- plifying assumptions, the analysis examined three options: (a) doing nothing, (b) retrofitting all existing bridges and culverts now to avoid future climate change impacts, and (c) designing all new bridges and culverts to accommo- date future climate changes to 2080. The analysis revealed that it would not be economical to retrofit the existing stock of bridges and culverts, but it (continued)

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158 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation BOX 5-2 (continued) Climate Change and Asset Management: New Zealand Transit’s Approach to Addressing Impacts of Climate Change would be preferable to repair the assets when a specific loss or need became evident. The primary reasons for this conclusion were uncertainties about where and when the impacts of climate change will manifest themselves and the historical number of bridges and culverts lost prematurely because of other events. Retrofitting all new bridges and culverts to take climate change into account was also determined not to be economical. Nevertheless, the agency decided that, where possible, provision should be made for subse- quent retrofitting (either lifting or lengthening the bridge) in the event impacts are experienced. For major bridges (and culverts) where retrofitting is not practical, the structure should be designed for projected future impacts of cli- mate change on the basis of the best available information (Kinsella and McGuire 2005). Transit New Zealand has amended its Bridge Manual to include consid- eration of relevant impacts of climate change as a design factor. In addition, the agency will continue to monitor climate change data and developments and review its policy when appropriate. Hazard Reduction Program, begun in 1977, which has provided much of the underlying research for seismic standards (see Box 5-3). New Infrastructure Investment, Transportation Planning, and Controls on Land Use One of the most effective strategies for reducing the risks of climate change is to avoid placing people and infrastructure in vulnerable locations, such as coastal areas. Chapter 3 described the continuing development pressures on coastal counties despite the increased risk of flooding and damage from storm surge and wave action accompanying projected rising sea levels. Many areas along the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts will be affected. Once in place, settlement patterns and supporting infrastructure are difficult to change. In New York City, for example, a major concern of emergency planners is handling the evacuation of some 2.3 million New Yorkers from flood-prone areas in the event of a Category 3 or greater hurricane (New York City Transit 2007). Continued development of such vulnerable areas

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ANNEX 5-1A (continued) Potential Climate Changes, Impacts on Land Transportation, and Adaptation Options Impacts on Land Transportation (Highways, Rail, Pipeline) Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Return of some coastal areas to nature Precipitation: Increases in weather- Increases in flooding of Expansion of systems Protection of critical Greater use of sen- increase in related delays roadways, rail lines, and for monitoring scour evacuation routes sors for intense precipi- Increases in traffic dis- subterranean tunnels of bridge piers and Upgrading of road monitoring water tation events ruptions Overloading of drainage abutments drainage systems flows Increased flooding of systems, causing back- Increase in monitoring Protection of bridge Restriction of devel- evacuation routes ups and street flooding of land slopes and piers and abutments opment in Disruption of construc- Increases in road scouring, drainage systems with riprap floodplains tion activities road washout, damages Increases in monitoring Increases in culvert Changes in rain, snow- to railbed support struc- of pipelines for expo- capacity fall, and seasonal tures, and landslides sure, shifting, and Increases in pumping flooding that affect and mudslides that scour in shallow capacity for tunnels safety and mainte- damage roadways and waters Addition of slope reten- nance operations tracks Increases in real-time tion structures and Impacts on soil moisture monitoring of flood retaining facilities levels, affecting struc- levels for landslides tural integrity of roads, Integration of emergency Increases in the stan- bridges, and tunnels evacuation proce- dard for drainage dures into operations capacity for new

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Adverse impacts of stand- transportation infra- ing water on road bases structure and major Increases in scouring of rehabilitation projects pipeline roadbeds and (e.g., assuming a damages to pipelines 500-year rather than a 100-year storm) Precipitation: Increased susceptibility Increased susceptibility to Vegetation manage- increases in to wildfires, causing wildfires that threaten ment drought condi- road closures due to transportation infra- tions for some fire threat or reduced structure directly regions visibility Increased susceptibility to mudslides in areas deforested by wildfires Precipitation: Benefits for safety and Increased risk of floods changes in reduced interrup- from runoff, landslides, seasonal precipi- tions if frozen slope failures, and tation and river precipitation shifts damage to roads if pre- flow patterns to rainfall, depend- cipitation changes from ing on terrain snow to rain in winter and spring thaws Strengthening and Storms: more fre- More debris on roads Greater probability of infra- Emergency evacuation Changes in bridge heightening of quent strong and rail lines, inter- structure failures procedures that design to tie decks levees hurricanes rupting travel and Increased threat to stability become more routine more securely to Restriction of further (Category 4–5) shipping of bridge decks Improvements in ability substructure and development in More frequent and Increased damage to signs, to forecast landfall strengthen founda- vulnerable coastal potentially more lighting fixtures and and trajectory of tions locations extensive emergency supports hurricanes evacuations (continued)

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ANNEX 5-1A (continued) Potential Climate Changes, Impacts on Land Transportation, and Adaptation Options Impacts on Land Transportation (Highways, Rail, Pipeline) Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Decreased expected life- Improvements in moni- Increases in drainage Increase in flood time of highways toring of road capacity for new insurance rates to exposed to storm surge conditions and transportation infra- help restrict issuance of real-time structure or major development messages to rehabilitation proj- Return of some motorists ects (e.g., assuming coastal areas to Improvements in mod- more frequent return nature eling of emergency periods) evacuation Removal of traffic bot- tlenecks on critical evacuation routes and building of more system redundancy Adoption of modular construction tech- niques where infra- structure is in danger of failure Development of modular traffic features and road sign systems for easier replacement

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ANNEX 5-1B Potential Climate Changes, Impacts on Marine Transportation, and Adaptation Options Impacts on Marine Transportation Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Temperature: Impacts on shipping increases in very due to warmer water hot days and in rivers and lakes heat waves Temperature: Less ice accumulation Improvement in operat- decreases in very on vessels, decks, ing conditions from cold days riggings, and docks; less ice accumula- less ice fog; fewer tion, fog, and jams ice jams in ports Temperature: Longer ocean transport Longer ice-free ship- increases in season and more ping season and Arctic tempera- ice-free ports in increased access to tures northern regions more ice-free ports Possible availability of and resources in a Northern Sea Route remote areas or a Northwest Longer season for Passage barge transport (continued)

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ANNEX 5-1B (continued) Potential Climate Changes, Impacts on Marine Transportation, and Adaptation Options Impacts on Marine Transportation Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Temperature: later Extended shipping Increases in summer Design of shallower- More dredging, but onset of seasonal season for inland load restrictions bottom vessels for environmental and freeze and earlier waterways (especially seaway travel institutional issues onset of seasonal the St. Lawrence Shifts to other trans- thaw Seaway and the portation modes Great Lakes) due to reduced ice coverage Sea level rise, More severe storm More dredging of More frequent bridge Raising of dock and Changes in harbor and port added to storm surges, requiring some channels openings to handle wharf levels and facilities to accommo- surge evacuation Raising or construc- shipping retrofitting of other date higher tides and tion of new jetties facilities to provide storm surges and seawalls to adequate clearance Reduced clearance under protect harbors Protection of terminal bridges and warehouse Impacts on navigability of entrances channels: some will be Elevation of bridges more accessible (and and other structures farther inland) because of deeper waters, while others will be restricted because of changes in sedimentation

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Precipitation: Increases in weather- Impacts on harbor infra- Strengthening of harbor More dredging on increase in related delays structure from wave infrastructure to pro- some shipping intense precipita- damage and storm tect it from storm channels tion events surges surge and wave Changes in underwater damage surface and silt and Protection of terminal debris buildup can affect and warehouse channel depth entrances from flooding Precipitation: Impacts on river trans- Restrictions on ship- More dredging on increases in portation routes and ping due to channel some shipping drought condi- seasons depth along inland channels and tions for some waterways and on harbors regions other river travel Release of water from upstream sources Shifts to other trans- portation modes Precipitation: Periodic channel clos- Changes in silt deposition Restrictions on ship- More dredging on changes in ings or restrictions if leading to reduced depth ping due to channel some shipping seasonal precipi- flooding increases of some inland water- depth along inland channels tation and river Benefits for safety and ways and impacts on waterways and on flow patterns reduced interrup- long-term viability of other river travel tions if frozen some inland navigation precipitation shifts routes to rainfall (continued)

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ANNEX 5-1B (continued) Potential Climate Changes, Impacts on Marine Transportation, and Adaptation Options Impacts on Marine Transportation Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Storms: more fre- Implications for emer- Greater challenge to robust- Emergency evacuation Hardening of docks, quent strong gency evacuation ness of infrastructure procedures that wharves, and termi- hurricanes planning, facility Damage to harbor infra- become more routine nals to withstand (Category 4–5) maintenance, and structure from waves storm surge and safety management and storm surges wave action Damage to cranes and other dock and terminal facilities

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ANNEX 5-1C Potential Climate Changes, Impacts on Air Transportation, and Adaptation Options Impacts on Aviation Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Temperature: Delays due to excessive Heat-related weathering Increase in payload Development of new increases in very heat and buckling of pave- restrictions on air- heat-resistant run- hot days and Impact on lift-off load ments and concrete craft at high-altitude way paving materials heat waves limits at high-alti- facilities or hot-weather air- Extension of runway tude or hot-weather Heat-related weathering of ports lengths at high- airports with in- vehicle stock Increase in flight can- altitude or hot- sufficient runway cellations weather airports, if lengths, resulting in feasible flight cancellations or limits on payload (i.e., weight restric- tions), or both More energy consump- tion on the ground Temperature: Changes in snow and Reduction in snow and decreases in very ice removal costs ice removal cold days and environmental Reduction in airplane impacts from salt deicing and chemical use Reduction in need for (continued) deicing

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ANNEX 5-1C (continued) Potential Climate Changes, Impacts on Air Transportation, and Adaptation Options Impacts on Aviation Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Fewer limitations on ground crew work at airports, typically restricted at wind chills below −29°C (−20°F) Temperature: Thawing of permafrost, Development of new Relocation of some increases in undermining runway runway paving mate- landing strips Arctic tempera- foundations rials tures Major repair of some runways Temperature: later onset of seasonal freeze and earlier onset of seasonal thaw Sea level rise, Potential for closure or Inundation of airport run- Elevation of some run- Construction or rais- added to storm restrictions for sev- ways located in coastal ways ing of protective surge eral of the top 50 areas dikes and levees airports that lie in

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coastal zones, Relocation of some affecting service to runways, if the highest-density feasible populations in the United States Precipitation: Impacts on structural More disruption and Increases in drainage Increases in delays due increase in integrity of airport facili- delays in air service capacity and to convective intense precipita- ties More airport closures improvement of weather tion events Destruction or disabling of drainage systems Storm water runoff that navigation aid instru- supporting runways exceeds the capacity ments and other paved sur- of collection sys- Runway and other infra- faces tems, causing structure damage due to flooding, delays, and flooding airport closings Inadequate or damaged Implications for emer- pavement drainage gency evacuation systems planning, facility maintenance, and safety management Precipitation: Decreased visibility at increases in airports located in drought condi- drought-susceptible tions for some areas with potential regions for increased wild- fires (continued)

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ANNEX 5-1C (continued) Potential Climate Changes, Impacts on Air Transportation, and Adaptation Options Impacts on Aviation Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Precipitation: Benefits for safety and Inadequate or damaged Increases in drainage changes in reduced interrup- pavement drainage capacity and seasonal precipi- tions if frozen systems improvement of tation and river precipitation shifts drainage systems flow patterns to rainfall supporting runways and other paved sur- faces Storms: more fre- More frequent interrup- Damage to landside facili- Hardening of terminals quent strong tions in air service ties (e.g., terminals, and other facilities hurricanes navigation aids, (Category 4–5) fencing around perimeters, signs)