3
Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation

This chapter explores what is known about the potential impacts of climate change on transportation. First, the vulnerability of the transportation system to climate change is considered, recognizing, however, that not all changes will have negative impacts. Then, the potential impacts of the major climate change factors of relevance for U.S. transportation identified in the previous chapter are described for each transportation mode. Next, the few studies that have actually assessed the impacts of climate change on transportation in a particular region or metropolitan area are reviewed; these studies provide a good illustration of regional differences in both expected climate changes and impacts. The chapter ends with the committee’s findings on the impacts of climate change on transportation.

VULNERABILITY OF THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM TO CLIMATE CHANGE

No comprehensive inventory exists of U.S. transportation infrastructure vulnerable to climate change impacts, the potential extent of that exposure, or the potential damage costs. Nevertheless, some salient data can be pieced together from various sources. For example, 53 percent of the U.S. population lives in counties with coastal areas, although such areas make up only 17 percent of the nation’s contiguous land area (Crossett et al. 2004; U.S. Census Bureau 2005, 28).1 Population density in coastal counties (exclud-

1

Coastal areas are defined by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as counties and equivalent areas with at least 15 percent of their land area either in a coastal watershed or in a coastal area between watersheds.



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3 Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation T his chapter explores what is known about the potential impacts of climate change on transportation. First, the vulnerability of the trans- portation system to climate change is considered, recognizing, however, that not all changes will have negative impacts. Then, the potential impacts of the major climate change factors of relevance for U.S. transportation iden- tified in the previous chapter are described for each transportation mode. Next, the few studies that have actually assessed the impacts of climate change on transportation in a particular region or metropolitan area are reviewed; these studies provide a good illustration of regional differences in both expected climate changes and impacts. The chapter ends with the com- mittee’s findings on the impacts of climate change on transportation. VULNERABILITY OF THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM TO CLIMATE CHANGE No comprehensive inventory exists of U.S. transportation infrastructure vulnerable to climate change impacts, the potential extent of that exposure, or the potential damage costs. Nevertheless, some salient data can be pieced together from various sources. For example, 53 percent of the U.S. popula- tion lives in counties with coastal areas, although such areas make up only 17 percent of the nation’s contiguous land area (Crossett et al. 2004; U.S. Census Bureau 2005, 28).1 Population density in coastal counties (exclud- Coastal areas are defined by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as counties 1 and equivalent areas with at least 15 percent of their land area either in a coastal watershed or in a coastal area between watersheds. 79

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80 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation ing Alaska) is significantly higher than the national average—300 versus 98 persons per square mile—reflecting the limited land area involved (Crossett et al. 2004). This population swells in the summer months, as beaches are the top tourist destination (Douglass et al. 2005). Coastal areas are projected to experience continued development pressures as both retirement magnets and tourist destinations. For example, many of the most populous coastal counties located in California, south Florida, and Texas (Harris County), which already experience the effects of hurricanes and other tropical storms, are expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades (Crossett et al. 2004). This growth will generate demand for more transportation infrastructure and increase the difficulty of evacuation in an emergency. Sea level rise, which climate scientists now believe to be virtually cer- tain, in combination with expected population growth, will aggravate the situation, making housing and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas even more vulnerable to extensive flooding and higher storm surges. An estimated 60,000 miles of coastal highways is already exposed to periodic coastal storm flooding and wave action (Douglass et al. 2005).2 Those high- ways that currently serve as evacuation routes during hurricanes and other coastal storms could be compromised in the future. Although coastal high- way mileage is a small fraction of the nearly 4 million miles of public roads in the United States, the vulnerability of these highways is concentrated in a few states, and some of these routes also serve as barriers to sea intrusion and as evacuation routes (Titus 2002). Coastal areas are also major centers of economic activity. Six of the nation’s top 10 U.S. freight gateways (by value of shipments) (BTS 2007) will be at risk from sea level rise (see Table 3-1). Seven of the 10 largest ports (by tons of traffic) (BTS 2007, 30) are located in the Gulf Coast, whose vulnerability was amply demonstrated during the 2005 tropical storm season.3 The Gulf Coast is also home to the U.S. oil and gas indus- tries, providing nearly 30 percent of the nation’s crude oil production and 2 These estimates were made by using geographic information systems to measure the length of roads in coastal counties, superimposing data from the Flood Insurance Rate Maps of the Federal Emergency Management Agency to indicate those roads along the coast or tidal rivers likely to be inundated by storm surge in a 100-year storm, and finally adjusting the estimate to eliminate flooding from rainfall runoff. 3 The Port of South Louisiana is the nation’s largest port by tonnage and the largest agricultural export facility in the United States (Mineta 2005). Fortunately, it suffered only minor structural damage from Hurricane Katrina.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation 81 TABLE 3-1 Top 10 U.S. Foreign Trade Freight Gateways by Value of Shipments, 2005 Shipment Value Rank Port Mode ($ billions) 1 John F. Kennedy International Airport, New York Air 134.9 2 Los Angeles, California Vessel 134.3 3 Detroit, Michigan Land 130.5 4 New York, New York, and New Jersey Vessel 130.4 5 Long Beach, California Vessel 124.6 6 Laredo, Texas Land 93.7 7 Houston, Texas Vessel 86.1 8 Chicago, Illinois Air 73.4 9 Los Angeles International Airport, California Air 72.9 10 Buffalo–Niagara Falls, New York Land 70.5 Source: BTS 2007, 39. approximately 20 percent of its natural gas production (Felmy 2005). Several thousand off-shore drilling platforms, dozens of refineries, and thousands of miles of pipelines are vulnerable to disruption and dam- age from storm surge and high winds of tropical storms, as was recently demonstrated by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Those hurricanes halted all oil and gas production from the Gulf, disrupted nearly 20 percent of the nation’s refinery capacity, and closed oil and gas pipelines (CBO 2006).4 Climate scientists believe that global warming is likely to increase the inten- sity of strong hurricanes making landfall, increasing the risk of damage to or lengthening the disruption in the operation of these vital facilities. Inland areas are also likely to experience the effects of climate change. Increased intense precipitation predicted by climate scientists for the con- tinental United States could increase the severity of such events as the great flood of 1993. That event caused catastrophic flooding along 500 miles of the Mississippi and Missouri River system, paralyzing surface transporta- tion systems, including rail, truck, and marine traffic. Major east–west traffic was halted for roughly 6 weeks in an area stretching from St. Louis 4 By the end of 2005—4 months after Hurricane Katrina and a little more than 3 months after Hurricane Rita—roughly one-quarter of crude oil production and one-fifth of natural gas production from the Gulf remained shut down (CBO 2006). Two percent of the nation’s refinery capacity still was not operating.

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82 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation west to Kansas City and north to Chicago, affecting one-quarter of all U.S. freight that either originated or terminated in the flood-affected region (Changnon 1996). Drier conditions are likely to prevail in the summer in midcontinental regions, such as the Saint Lawrence Seaway. Weather and vessel incidents cause most of the lock downtime on the seaway, but in 2000 and 2001, water levels were at their lowest point in 35 years, reducing vessel carrying capacity to about 90 percent of normal (BTS 2005, 140). If low water levels become more common because of dryer conditions due to climate change, freight movements in the region could be seriously impaired, and extensive dredging could be required to keep shipping chan- nels open (Great Lakes Regional Assessment Team 2000; Quinn 2002). A longer shipping season afforded by a warmer climate, however, could off- set some of the resulting adverse economic effects. The vulnerability of transportation infrastructure to climate change is in part a function of its robustness and degree of protection from exposure to climate change effects (as is the case, for example, with seawalls and lev- ees). It also depends on the amount of redundancy in the system. Box 3-1 illustrates how system redundancies proved critical to the rapid restora- tion of partial rail service during both Hurricane Katrina and the 1993 Mississippi River flood.5 Yet the predominant trend has been for the rail- roads (as well as other owners of infrastructure) to shed uneconomical unused capacity by consolidating operations and abandoning underused lines. Likewise, major businesses, both manufacturing and retail, have reduced operating costs through just-in-time delivery strategies, but with the effect of increasing their vulnerability to disruptions or failures of the transportation system from either natural or human causes. The network character of the transportation system can help mitigate the negative economic consequences of a shock to the system, particularly in the longer term, as shipments can be shifted to alternative modes or other regions can pick up the interrupted service. To illustrate, the Port of Gulfport, Mississippi, which was competing with New Orleans to be the second-largest container port in the Gulf, was 95 percent destroyed by the 30-foot storm surge from Hurricane Katrina (Plume 2005). Subsequently, much of the traffic shifted to other ports while Gulfport undertook major reconstruction of its facilities. On the other hand, the network character 5 See also the discussion later in this chapter of the results of a case study of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita commissioned for this study.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation 83 BOX 3-1 Examples of the Role of System Redundancies in the Restoration of Critical Infrastructure Following Natural Disasters Hurricane Katrina significantly damaged rail transport in the Gulf Coast region, particularly east–west traffic through the New Orleans interchange rail gateway—one of only four major rail crossings of the Mississippi River. CSX was the rail carrier most affected, sustaining significant damage to two-thirds of its track mileage between Mobile and New Orleans and to five railroad bridges between Biloxi and New Orleans (M. Hinsdale, presenta- tion to the committee, Jan. 5, 2006). Estimated reconstruction costs were approximately $300 million, or about one-quarter of CSX’s annual operat- ing revenues available for capital investment. Nevertheless, CSX coped with the situation by using “borrowed” track of other, less hard-hit railroads in the region and by rerouting freight as far north as the St. Louis Mississippi River crossing. CSX has committed to rebuilding its coastal track in the short term but is evaluating less vulnerable alternative routes using exist- ing rail corridors or constructing farther inland. At the time, the flood of 1993 was hailed as the worst natural disaster ever experienced by the U.S. railroad industry. Total physical damages amounted to more than $282 million in 2005 dollars—23 percent of which included costs to operate detoured trains (Changnon 2006). In addi- tion, because of the delays, the railroads lost revenues of $198 million. Nevertheless, nearly 3,000 long-distance trains were rerouted onto other railroad lines and some little-used lines bordering on abandonment. System redundancies and operating arrangements with other carriers enabled the affected railroads to continue operating—more slowly and at increased cost— but operating nonetheless. of the transportation system can work to magnify the effects of a shock to the system, particularly when critical links are damaged or destroyed. This situation was well illustrated during Hurricane Katrina with the loss of critical highway and rail bridges. POTENTIAL IMPACTS BY TRANSPORTATION MODE The impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructure will differ depending on the particular mode of transportation, its geographic loca-

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84 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation tion, and its condition. This section is focused on those climate changes and weather parameters identified in the previous chapter (see Table 2-1) that climate scientists agree are most likely to occur over the course of this century and are of greatest relevance to transportation. Potential impacts on all modes of transport—land, marine, and aviation—are considered. However, the discussion is intended to be illustrative rather than com- prehensive in coverage, highlighting major impacts, similarities and differences among modes, and implications for adaptation strategies. Annex 3-1 gives the relevant climate and weather parameters along with potential impacts by transportation mode. In preparing this table, the committee drew on past efforts to identify transportation-sensitive weather conditions, as well as the collective expertise of the committee members. Some notable past reports include the Weather Information for Surface Transportation National Needs Assessment Report (OFCM 2002), the Metropolitan East Coast Assessment (Gornitz and Couch 2000; see detail in the next section), the U.S. Department of Transportation Workshop on Transportation and Climate Change (USDOT 2002), and an article by Black (1990). In addition, the discussion in this section draws heavily on a paper commissioned for this study (Peterson et al. 2006; see Appendix C) that provides a more detailed discussion of the potential impacts of climate change on transportation on the basis of recent global climate simulations. The primary focus here is on the direct impacts of potential climate changes on transportation infrastructure. Nevertheless, many of these effects will be influenced by the environment in which the infrastructure is located. For example, increased precipitation levels in some regions will affect moisture levels in the soil and hydrostatic buildup behind retaining walls and abutments and the stability of pavement subgrades. Runoff from increased precipitation levels will also affect stream flow and sedi- ment delivery in some locations, with potentially adverse effects on bridge foundations. Permafrost decline will affect Arctic land forms and hydrol- ogy, with potentially adverse effects on the stability of road- and rail beds. And sea level rise will affect coastal land forms, exposing many coastal areas to storm surge as barrier islands and other natural barriers dis- appear. Such changes are noted here, but their variability from region to region prohibits further elaboration. There are also likely to be many indirect effects of potential climate changes on transportation. For example, possible climate-caused shifts in

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Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation 85 demographics or in the distribution of agricultural production, forests, and fisheries would have implications for road usage and other transport pat- terns between emerging economic centers and urban areas. Transportation patterns could also shift as the tourism industry responds to changes in eco- logically or recreationally interesting destinations. Similarly, climate changes elsewhere in the world that shift markets or demographics could affect the U.S. transportation system. Other indirect effects may be manifested at the interface between mit- igation and adaptation. Likely U.S. regulation of greenhouse gas emissions by the Environmental Protection Agency will affect transportation activities, potentially shifting travel to more energy-efficient modes (see Appendix B). Furthermore, climate changes may present additional challenges to meeting air and water quality standards. For example, warmer summertime temperatures will exacerbate air pollution, partic- ularly ground-level ozone, likely requiring further action to mitigate transportation-related emissions of pollutants. Similarly, changes in runoff resulting from modified precipitation regimes could affect water quality, with implications for roadway treatments. Impacts of Warming Temperatures and Temperature Extremes Land Transportation Modes Land transportation modes comprise highways (including bridges and tunnels); rail (including private rail lines and public transportation); the vehicles that use these facilities—passenger cars, trucks, buses, rail and rail transit cars—and pipelines (recognizing that the latter are buried under- ground in many areas). Projected warming temperatures and more heat extremes will affect all of these modes (see Annex 3-1). The effects of temperature warming are already being experienced in Alaska in the form of continued retreat of permafrost regions (see the discussion of Alaska below), creating land subsidence issues for some sections of the road and rail systems and for some of the elevated supports for aboveground sections of the Trans- Alaska pipeline. Warming winter temperatures have also shortened the season for ice roads that provide vital access to communities and indus- trial activities in remote areas. Alaska’s situation is quite different from that of many of the lower 48 states, however, where warming temperatures should have less dra-

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86 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation matic, and in some cases beneficial, effects. In many northern states, for example, warming winter temperatures will bring about reductions in snow and ice removal costs, lessen adverse environmental impacts from the use of salt and chemicals on roads and bridges, extend the construc- tion season, and improve the mobility and safety of passenger and freight travel through reduced winter hazards. Expected increases in temperature extremes, however, will have less positive impacts. More freeze–thaw con- ditions may occur, creating frost heaves and potholes on road and bridge surfaces and resulting in load restrictions on certain roads to minimize the damage. With the expected earlier onset of seasonal warming, the period of springtime load restrictions may be reduced in some areas but is likely to expand in others with shorter winters but longer thaw seasons. Periods of excessive summer heat are likely to increase wildfires, threat- ening communities and infrastructure directly and bringing about road and rail closures in affected areas. Longer periods of extreme heat may compromise pavement integrity (e.g., softening asphalt and increasing rut- ting from traffic); cause deformation of rail lines and derailments or, at a minimum, speed restrictions (Rossetti 2002);6 and cause thermal expan- sion of bridge joints, adversely affecting bridge operation and increasing maintenance costs. Pipelines in the lower 48 states are not likely to experi- ence adverse effects from heat extremes. Marine Transportation Marine transportation infrastructure includes ports and harbors and supporting intermodal terminals and the ships and barges that use these facilities. Expected climate change impacts differ for coastal and inland waterways. Warming winter temperatures, particularly in northern coastal areas, could be a boon for marine transportation. Fewer days below freezing would reduce problems with ice accumulation on vessels, decks, riggings, and docks; the occurrence of dangerous ice fog; and the likelihood of ice jams in ports. The striking thinning (Rothrock and Zhang 2005) and over- all downward trend in the extent (Stroeve et al. 2005) of Arctic sea ice are regarded as a major opportunity for shippers (Annex 3-1). In the short 6 Proper installation of continuous welded rail usually prevents kinks from occurring, but not always (Changnon 2006).

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Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation 87 term, continued reduction in Arctic sea ice should result in more ice-free ports, improved access to both ports and natural resources in remote areas, and longer shipping seasons. In the longer term, shippers are look- ing forward to new Arctic shipping routes that could provide significant cost savings in shipping times and distances (see the discussion of Alaska below). For the next several decades, however, warming temperatures and melting sea ice are likely to result in increased variability in year-to-year shipping conditions and higher costs due to requirements for stronger ships and support systems (e.g., ice-capable ship designs, icebreaker escorts, search and rescue support) (ACIA 2004). In addition, improved access to remote areas may increase the risk of environmental degradation to fragile ecosystems. Warming temperatures are also likely to provide longer shipping sea- sons for the St. Lawrence Seaway and the Great Lakes (Annex 3-1). Because of the complex interaction among warmer temperatures, reduced lake ice, and increased evaporation, however, all nine climate model simulations suggest lower lake levels as the climate warms (Great Lakes Regional Assessment Team 2000).7 With lower lake levels, ships will be unable to carry as much cargo, and hence shipping costs will increase, although some of the adverse economic impacts could be offset by a longer shipping sea- son.8 A recent study of the economic impact of climate change on Canadian commercial navigation on the Great Lakes, for example, found that predicted lowering of Great Lakes water levels would result in an esti- mated increase in shipping costs for Canadian commercial navigation of between 13 and 29 percent by 2050, all else remaining equal (Millard 2005).9 Lower water levels could also create periodic problems for river traffic, reminiscent of the stranded barges on the Mississippi River during the drought of 1988 (du Vair et al. 2002). In the longer run, of course, less See in particular Chapter 4 on climate change and shipping/boating. 7 According to the Lake Carriers’ Association, a 1,000-foot-long vessel typically used for intralake 8 transport loses 270 tons of capacity for each inch of draft loss. (Draft is the distance between the water line and the bottom of the vessel.) Oceangoing vessels, sized for passage through the St. Lawrence Seaway, are approximately 740 feet long and lose 100 tons of capacity for each inch of draft lost (Great Lakes Regional Assessment Team 2000). 9 Impacts were estimated on the basis of three climate scenarios: one that assumes a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 by midcentury and two that assume a more gradual increase in greenhouse gases and include the cooling effects of sulfate aerosols. The study found that economic impacts varied widely by commodity and route.

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88 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation efficient waterborne commodity movement would likely result in shifts to other transportation modes, such as truck and rail. Increased dredging could offset some of the impacts of climate change, but at a high cost and with potentially negative environmental consequences. Air Transportation Air transportation comprises airports and ground facilities, as well as the airplanes that carry both passengers and freight and the air traffic control system. Warming temperatures and possible increases in temperature extremes will affect airport ground facilities—runways in particular—in much the same way that they will affect roads. In Alaska, where use of air transport is atypically high relative to land transportation modes and many airstrips are built on permafrost, continued retreat and thawing of permafrost could undermine runway foundations, necessitating major repairs or even relocation of some landing strips (Annex 3-1; U.S. Arctic Research Commission Permafrost Task Force 2003). In contrast, airports in many of the lower 48 northern states are likely to benefit from reduc- tions in the cost of snow and ice removal and in the environmental impacts of salt and chemical use. Airlines could benefit as well from reduced need for deicing of airplanes. The amount of any reduction, how- ever, will depend on the balance between expected warming and increased precipitation. More heat extremes, however, are likely to be problematic. They could cause heat buckling of runways. Extreme heat can also affect aircraft lift; hotter air is less dense, reducing mass flowing over the wing to create lift. The problem is exacerbated at high-altitude airports. If runways are not sufficiently long for large aircraft to build up enough speed to generate lift, aircraft weight must be reduced or some flights canceled altogether. Thus, increases in extreme heat are likely to result in payload restrictions, flight cancellations, and service disruptions at affected airports, and could require some airports to extend runway lengths, if feasible. An analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the Denver and Phoenix airports estimated summer cargo loss (June through August) for a single Boeing 747 of about 17 and 9 percent, respectively, by 2030 because of the effects of increased temperature and water vapor (T. R. Karl and D. M. Anderson, Emerging Issues in Abrupt Climate Change, brief- ing, March 12, 2007).

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Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation 89 Impacts of Increased Heavy Precipitation and Sea Level Rise Land Transportation Modes The frequency, intensity, and duration of intense precipitation events are important factors in design specifications for transportation infrastruc- ture. Probabilistic estimates of rainfall intensities for a range of durations (5 minutes to 24 hours) for return periods, or recurrence intervals, of 20, 50, and 100 years have been used by civil engineers for designs of road cul- verts, storm water drainage systems, and road- and rail beds. Projected increases in intense precipitation events will necessitate updating design specifications to provide for greater capacity and shorter recurrence inter- vals, increasing system costs. The most immediate impact of more intense precipitation will be increased flooding of coastal roads and rail lines (Annex 3-1). Expected sea level rise will aggravate the flooding because storm surges will build on a higher base, reaching farther inland (Titus 2002). In fact, the chapter in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report on North America identifies coastal flooding from expected sea level rise and storm surge, especially along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, as one of the most serious effects of climate change (Burkett 2002 in Field et al. 2007). Indeed, several studies of sea level rise project that transporta- tion infrastructure in some coastal areas along the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic will be permanently inundated sometime in the next century (Dingerson 2005; Gornitz and Couch 2000; Leatherman et al 2000; Titus 2002). Low-lying bridge and tunnel entrances for roads, rail, and rail tran- sit will also be more susceptible to flooding, and thousands of culverts could be undersized for flows. Engineers must be prepared to deal with the resulting erosion and subsidence of road bases and rail beds, as well as ero- sion and scouring of bridge supports.10 Interruption of road and rail traffic is likely to become more common with more frequent flooding. The impact of sea level rise is limited to coastal areas, but the effect of intense precipitation on land transportation infrastructure and opera- tions is not. For example, a record-breaking 24-hour rainstorm in July 10 Scour is the hole left behind when sediment (sand and rocks) is washed away from the bottom of a river. Although scour may occur at any time, scour action is especially strong during floods. Swiftly flowing water has more energy than calm water to lift and carry sediment downriver. Removal of sediment from around bridge piers or abutments (piers are the pillars supporting a bridge and abutments the supports at each end of a bridge) can weaken and ultimately undermine the integrity of bridges (Warren 1993).

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Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation 113 experience. Expected changes in climate extremes, such as more extreme temperatures, more intense precipitation, and more intense storms, could push environmental conditions outside the range for which the system was designed. This in turn could necessitate changes in design, materials, construction, and operating and maintenance practices. For example, increased flooding from more intense storms could require a combination of physical improvements (e.g., greater pumping capacity, more elevated bridges) and operational measures (e.g., better flood warning and evacua- tion plans, better real-time micro-level weather forecasts). Climate change will create both winners and losers. For example, the marine transportation sector could benefit from more open seas in the Arctic, reducing shipping routes, times, and costs in the long run. In cold regions, expected temperature warming, particularly decreases in very cold days and later onset of seasonal freeze and earlier onset of seasonal thaw, could mean less snow and ice control for departments of transportation and safer travel conditions for passenger vehicles and freight. In all cases, transportation professionals will have to confront and adapt to climate change without knowing the full magnitude of expected changes. The greatest challenge is the uncertainty as to exactly what changes to expect and when. Thus, transportation decision makers will need to adopt a more probabilistic risk management approach to infrastructure planning, design, and operations to accommodate uncertainties about the nature and timing of expected climate changes—a major focus of the next chapter. REFERENCES Abbreviations ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics CBO Congressional Budget Office FHWA Federal Highway Administration NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration OFCM Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research USDOT U.S. Department of Transportation ACIA. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom.

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114 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation Barras, J. A. 2006. Land Area Changes in Coastal Louisiana After the 2005 Hurricanes: A Series of Three Maps. USGS Open File Report 06-1274. U.S. Geological Survey. Black, W. R. 1990. Global Warming: Impacts on the Transportation Infrastructure. TR News, No. 150, Sept.–Oct., pp. 2–8, 34. BTS. 2005. Transportation Statistics Annual Report. Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Nov. BTS. 2007. Pocket Guide to Transportation. Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Jan. Burkett, V. 2002. Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation in the Gulf Coast/Mississippi Delta Region. In The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation, Summary and Discussion Papers, Federal Research Partnership Workshop, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., Oct. 1–2, pp. 103–113. CBO. 2006. The Macroeconomic Effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2007 to 2016, Jan. Changnon, S. A. (ed.). 1996. The Great Flood of 1993: Causes, Impacts, and Responses. Westview Press, Inc., Boulder, Colo. Changnon, S. A. 1999. Record Flood-Producing Rainstorms of 17–18 July 1996 in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Part III: Impacts and Responses to the Flash Flooding. Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 38, No. 3, March, pp. 273–280. Changnon, S. A. 2006. Railroads and Weather: From Fogs to Floods and Heat to Hurricanes, the Impacts of Weather and Climate on American Railroading. American Meteorological Society, Boston, Mass. Chan, S. 2007. Flooding Cripples Subway System. New York Times, Aug. 8. Crossett, K. M., T. J. Culliton, P. C. Wiley, and T. R. Goodspeed. 2004. Population Trends Along the Coastal United States: 1980–2008. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Sept. Dingerson, L. 2005. Predicting Future Shoreline Condition Based on Land Use Trends, Logistic Regression, and Fuzzy Logic. Thesis. Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Gloucester, Va. Douglass, S. L., J. M. Richards, J. Lindstrom, and J. Shaw. 2005. An Estimate of the Extent of U.S. Coastal Highways. Presented at 84th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board to the Committee on Hydraulics, Hydrology, and Water Quality, Washington, D.C., Jan. 10. du Vair, P., D. Wickizer, and M. Burer. 2002. Climate Change and the Potential Implications for California’s Transportation System. In The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation, Summary and Discussion Papers, Federal Research Partnership Workshop, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., Oct. 1–2, pp. 125–134. Felmy, J. 2005. Statement of the American Petroleum Institute before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittees on Water Resources and Environment and on Economic Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management, House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Joint Hearing on a Vision and Strategy for Rebuilding New Orleans, U.S. House of Representatives, Oct. 18.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation 115 FHWA. 2005. Coastal Bridges and Design Storm Frequency. Office of Bridge Technology, Washington, D.C., Sept. 28. Field, C. B., L. D. Mortsch, M. Brklacich, D. L. Forbes, P. Kovacs, J. A. Patz, S. W. Running, and M. J. Scott. 2007. North America. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden, and C. E. Hanson, eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, pp. 617–652. Gornitz, V., and S. Couch. 2000. Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Hazards. In Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region, United States Global Change Research Program, Washington, D.C., pp. 21–46. ccsr.columbia.edu/cig/mec/03_Sea_Level_Rise_and_Coast.pdf. Great Lakes Regional Assessment Team. 2000. Preparing for a Changing Climate: Great Lakes. In A Summary by the Great Lakes Regional Assessment Group (P. J. Sousounis and J. M. Bisanz, eds.), U.S. Global Change Research Program, Oct. Grenzeback, L. R., and A. T. Lukmann. 2007. Case Study of the Transportation Sector’s Response to and Recovery from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Jan. 10. Institute for Water Resources. 2005. Climate Impacts on Inland Waterways. Final Report. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Alexandria, Va., July. Jacob, K. H., N. Edelblum, and J. Arnold. 2000. Risk Increase to Infrastructure due to Sea Level Rise. Sector Report: Infrastructure, the MEC Regional Assessment. In Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast (MEC) Region (C. Rosenzweig and W. D. Solecki, eds.). metroeast_climate.ciesin. columbia.edu/reports/infrastructure.pdf. Accessed Apr. 14, 2006. Jacob, K., V. Gornitz, and C. Rosenzweig. 2007. Vulnerability of the New York City Metropolitan Area to Coastal Hazards, Including Sea Level Rise—Inferences for Urban Coastal Risk Management and Adaptation Policies. In Managing Coastal Vulnerability (L. McFadden, R. Nicholls, and E. Penning-Roswell, eds.), Elsevier Publishing, Oxford, United Kingdom, pp. 141–158. Kirshen, P. n.d. CLIMB: Climate’s Long-Term Impacts on Metro Boston, Summary. www.tufts.edu/tie/climb. Accessed April 19, 2006. Kirshen, P., M. Ruth, W. Anderson, and T. R. Lakshmanan. 2004. Infrastructure Systems, Services and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area. EPA Grant No. R. 827450-01. Aug. 13. Leatherman, S. P., K. Zhang, and B. C. Douglas. 2000. Sea-Level Rise Shown to Drive Coastal Erosion. Eos, Transactions, Vol. 81, No. 6, pp. 55–57. Meyer, M. D. 2006. Design Standards for U.S. Transportation Infrastructure: The Implications of Climate Change. Georgia Institute of Technology, Dec. 18. Millard, F. 2005. The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Canadian Commercial Navigation on the Great Lakes. Canadian Water Resources Journal, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 269–280. Mineta, N. Y. 2005. Statement of the Honorable Norman Y. Mineta, Secretary of Transportation, before the Subcommittee on Transportation, Treasury, Housing, and Urban Development, the Judiciary, District of Columbia, and Independent Agencies, Committee on Appropriations, U.S. House of Representatives, Oct. 6.

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ANNEX 3-1 Potential Climate Changes and Impacts on Transportation Impacts on Land Transportation (Highways, Rail, Pipeline) Impacts on Marine Transportation Impacts on Air Transportation Potential Climate Operations and Operations and Operations and Change Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Temperature: Limitations on Impacts on Impacts on ship- Delays due to Heat-related pavement and increases in very periods of ping due to excessive heat weathering and concrete hot days and construction warmer water in Impact on lift-off buckling of construction heat waves activity due to rivers and lakes load limits at pavements and practices health and high-altitude or concrete Thermal expansion safety concerns; hot-weather facilities on bridge expan- restrictions airports with Heat-related sion joints and typically begin at insufficient weathering of paved surfaces 29.5°C (85°F); runway lengths, vehicle stock Impacts on land- heat exhaustion resulting in scaping in possible at flight cancella- highway and 40.5°C (105°F) tions and/or street rights- Vehicle overheating limits on pay- of-way and tire load (i.e., weight Concerns regard- deterioration restrictions) ing pavement More energy con- integrity, e.g., sumption on the softening, ground traffic-related rutting, migra- tion of liquid (continued) asphalt;

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ANNEX 3-1 (continued) Potential Climate Changes and Impacts on Transportation Impacts on Land Transportation (Highways, Rail, Pipeline) Impacts on Marine Transportation Impacts on Air Transportation Potential Climate Operations and Operations and Operations and Change Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure sustained air temperature over 32°C (90°F) is a significant threshold Rail-track deformi- ties; air temp- erature above 43°C (110°F) can lead to equipment failure Decreased utility of Temperature: Regional changes Less ice accumula- Changes in snow unimproved decreases in in snow and ice tion on vessels, and ice removal roads that rely very cold days removal costs decks, riggings, costs and envi- on frozen ground and environ- and docks; less ronmental for passage mental impacts ice fog; fewer impacts from from salt and ice jams in ports salt and chemi- chemical use cal use (reduction Reduction in need overall, but for deicing increases in Fewer limitations some regions) on ground crew

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Fewer cold-related work at airports, restrictions for typically maintenance restricted at workers wind chills below −29°C (−20°F) Temperature: Thawing of per- Longer ocean Thawing of increases in Arctic mafrost, causing transport season permafrost, temperatures subsidence of and more ice- undermining roads, rail beds, free ports in runway bridge supports northern regions foundations (cave-in), and Possible availabil- pipelines ity of a Northern Shorter season for Sea Route or a ice roads Northwest Passage Temperature: later Changes in Reduced pavement Extended shipping onset of seasonal seasonal weight deterioration season for freeze and earlier restrictions resulting from inland water- onset of seasonal Changes in less exposure to ways (especially thaw seasonal fuel freezing, snow, the St. Lawrence requirements and ice, but Seaway and the Improved mobility possibility of Great Lakes) due and safety more freeze– to reduced ice associated with thaw conditions coverage a reduction in in some winter weather locations Longer construction (continued) season

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ANNEX 3-1 (continued) Potential Climate Changes and Impacts on Transportation Impacts on Land Transportation (Highways, Rail, Pipeline) Impacts on Marine Transportation Impacts on Air Transportation Potential Climate Operations and Operations and Operations and Change Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Sea level rise, added More frequent Inundation of More severe storm Changes in harbor Potential for Inundation of and port to storm surge interruptions in roads and rail surges, requir- closure or airport runways facilities to travel on coastal lines in coastal ing evacuation restrictions for located in accommodate and low-lying areas several of the coastal areas higher tides and roadways and More frequent or top 50 airports storm surges rail service due severe flooding that lie in Reduced clearance to storm surges of underground coastal zones, under waterway More severe storm tunnels and low- affecting service bridges surges, requir- lying infra- to the highest- Changes in ing evacuation structure density navigability of Erosion of road populations in channels; some base and bridge the United will be more supports States accessible (and Bridge scour farther inland) Reduced clearance because of under bridges deeper waters, Loss of coastal while others will wetlands and be restricted barrier shoreline because of Land subsidence changes in sedimentation rates and shoal locations

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Precipitation: Increases in Increases in flood- Increases in Impacts on harbor Increases in delays Impacts on struc- increase in weather-related ing of roadways, weather-related infrastructure due to convec- tural integrity of intense delays rail lines, and delays from wave dam- tive weather airport facilities precipitation Increases in traffic subterranean age and storm Storm water runoff Destruction or dis- events disruptions tunnels surges that exceeds the abling of Increased flooding Overloading of Changes in under- capacity of col- navigation aid of evacuation drainage sys- water surface lection systems, instruments routes tems, causing and silt and causing flood- Runway and other Disruption of backups and debris buildup, ing, delays, and infrastructure construction street flooding which can affect airport closings damage due to activities Increases in road channel depth Implications for flooding Changes in rain, washout, dam- emergency Inadequate or snowfall, and ages to rail bed evacuation plan- damaged pave- seasonal flood- support struc- ning, facility ment drainage ing that affect tures, and maintenance, systems safety and landslides and and safety maintenance mudslides that management operations damage road- ways and tracks Impacts on soil moisture levels, affecting struc- tural integrity of roads, bridges, and tunnels Adverse impacts of standing water on the road base (continued)

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ANNEX 3-1 (continued) Potential Climate Changes and Impacts on Transportation Impacts on Land Transportation (Highways, Rail, Pipeline) Impacts on Marine Transportation Impacts on Air Transportation Potential Climate Operations and Operations and Operations and Change Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Increases in scour- ing of pipeline roadbeds and damages to pipelines Precipitation: Increased Increased Impacts on river Decreased visibility increases susceptibility susceptibility to transportation for airports in drought to wildfires, wildfires that routes and located in conditions causing road threaten trans- seasons drought- for some closures due to portation susceptible regions fire threat or infrastructure areas with reduced directly potential for visibility Increased suscep- increased tibility to mud- wildfires slides in areas deforested by wildfires Precipitation: Benefits for safety Increased risk of Periodic channel Changes in silt Inadequate or Benefits for safety changes in and reduced floods from closings or deposition lead- damaged pave- and reduced seasonal interruptions if runoff, land- restrictions if ing to reduced ment drainage interruptions if precipitation frozen precipita- slides, slope flooding depth of some systems frozen precipita- and river flow tion shifts to failures, and increases inland water- tion shifts to patterns ways and rainfall

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rainfall, depend- damage to roads Benefits for safety impacts on ing on terrain if precipitation and reduced long-term via- changes from interruptions if bility of some snow to rain in frozen precipita- inland naviga- winter and tion shifts to tion routes spring thaws rainfall Storms: more More debris on Greater probability Implications for Greater challenge More frequent Damage to frequent roads and rail of infrastructure emergency to robustness of interruptions in landside strong lines, interrupt- failures evacuation infrastructure air service facilities (e.g., hurricanes ing travel and Increased threat to planning, Damage to harbor terminals, (Category 4–5) shipping stability of facility infrastructure navigation aids, More frequent and bridge decks maintenance, from waves and fencing around potentially more Increased damage and safety storm surges perimeters, extensive to signs, light- management Damage to cranes signs) emergency ing fixtures, and and other dock evacuations supports and terminal Decreased expected facilities lifetime of high- ways exposed to storm surge