TABLE B-1 (TABLE 7-14) Illustrative Strategy to Attain 0.075 ppm: Estimated Annual Reductions in the Incidence of Premature Mortality Associated with Ozone Exposure in 2020 (Incremental to Current Ozone Standard, Arithmetic Mean, 95% Confidence Intervals in Parentheses)b,c,d,e

Model or Assumptiona

Reference

National Full Attainment

NMAPS

Bell et al. 2004

71

(27-110)

Meta-Analysis

Bell et al. 2005

230

(120-340)

Ito et al. 2005

310

(200-430)

Levy et al. 2005

320

(230-420)

Assumption that association is not causal

 

0

aDoes not represent equal weighting among models or between assumption of causality vs no causality (see text in section 6.3.2.1 [of EPA 2008b]).

bWith the exception of the assumption of no causal relationship, the arithmetic mean and 95% credible interval around the mean estimates of the annual number of lives saved are based on an assumption of a normal distribution.

cA credible interval is a posterior probability interval used in Bayesian statistics, which is similar to a confidence interval used in frequentist statistics.

dAll estimates rounded to two significant figures. As such, confidence intervals may not be symmetrical.

eThis table reflects full attainment in all locations of the U.S. except two areas of California. These two areas, which have high levels of ozone, are not planning to meet the current standard until after 2020. The estimates in the table do not reflect benefits for the San Joaquin and South Coast Air Basins.

Source: EPA 2008b.



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