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Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change (2008)
Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications (BMSA)
Board on Life Sciences (BLS)

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. "Appendix J: Reprinted Interim Report." Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.

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Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change

Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis


Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis


Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications


Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences


NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES


THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu

Page
127
Front Matter (R1-R14)
Summary (1-5)
1 Introduction (6-10)
2 The Critical Contribution of Risk Analysis to Risk Management and Reduction of Bioterrorism Risk (11-19)
3 Description and Analysis of the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Threat Risk Assessment of 2006 (20-33)
4 Department of Homeland Security Decision Requirements for Risk Management (34-41)
5 Risk Assessment for Unknown and Engineered Biothreat Agents (42-46)
6 Improving Bioterrorism Consequence Assessment (47-50)
7 Improving the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Threat Risk Assessment and Adding Risk Management (51-60)
Appendix A: Lexicon (61-77)
Appendix B: Mathematical Characterization of the Biological Threat Risk Assessment Event Tree and Risk Assessment (78-79)
Appendix C: Computational Example Illustrating the Replacement of a Joint Distribution of Arc Probabilities with Marginal Expected Values of Individual Arc Probabilities (80-84)
Appendix D: Bioterrorism Risk Analysis with Decision Trees (85-89)
Appendix E: Optimizing Department of Homeland Security Defense Investments: Applying Defender-Attacker (-Defender) Optimization to Terror Risk Assessment and Mitigation (90-102)
Appendix F: Combining Game Theory and Risk Analysis in Counterterrorism: A Smallpox Example (103-110)
Appendix G: On the Quantification of Uncertainty and Enhancing Probabilistic Risk Analysis (111-115)
Appendix H: Game Theory and Interdependencies (116-121)
Appendix I: Review of BTRA Modeling (122-125)
Appendix J: Reprinted Interim Report (126-148)
Appendix K: Meeting Agendas (149-152)
Appendix L: Biographies of Committee Members (153-156)
Appendix M: Acronyms (157-158)