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Suggested Citation:"Appendix K: Meeting Agendas." National Research Council. 2008. Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12206.
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Page 149
Suggested Citation:"Appendix K: Meeting Agendas." National Research Council. 2008. Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12206.
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Page 150
Suggested Citation:"Appendix K: Meeting Agendas." National Research Council. 2008. Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12206.
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Page 151
Suggested Citation:"Appendix K: Meeting Agendas." National Research Council. 2008. Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12206.
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Page 152

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Appendix K Meeting Agendas AUGUST 28-29, 2006 Monday, August 28, 2006 Closed Session (Committee Members and NRC Staff Only) 8:00 a.m. Data-Gathering Session Open to the Public 9:45 a.m. Introductory Remarks Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Leadership 10:00 Biology Presentation (Background for Prof. Luciana Borio, Center for Biosecurity, Nonbiologists) University of Pittsburgh 10:45 Break 11:00 DHS and National Biodefense Analysis and Dr. Steve Bennett, DHS/NBACC Countermeasures Center (NBACC) Background Dr. Bernard Courtney, DHS/NBACC and Risk Assessment Requirements 11:30 DHS 2006 Bioterrorism Risk Assessment Dr. Richard Denning, Battelle Memorial Institute Methodology 1:00 p.m. Lunch 1:45 Past Experiences and Implications for Prof. Detlof von Winterfeldt, Director, Center for Bioterrorism Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California 2:15 Assessing the Economic Impacts of Terrorism— Prof. Adam Rose, Pennsylvania State University and Capturing Behavioral Linkages and Resilience CREATE 2:45 Break   NOTE: Meetings of the Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis were held at the Keck Center of the National Academies, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001. 149

150 DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY BIOTERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT 3:00 Branch Probabilities and Uncertainty Mr. Rob Carnell, Battelle Management Atmospheric (Outdoor) Dispersion Modeling Ms. Mary Shell, Battelle Indoor Aerosol Dispersion Modeling Dr. Brian Hawkins, Battelle Medical Mitigation and Epidemiological Ms. Traci Hale and Dr. Nancy McMillan, Battelle Modeling Food and Water Contamination Modeling Mr. Jon David Sears, Battelle Risk Calculation Engine Mr. Rob Carnell, Battelle 5:30 p.m. Reception Tuesday, August 29, 2006 Data-Gathering Session Open to the Public 9:30 a.m. Updates and Planned Changes for the 2008 DHS/NBACC, Battelle Staff Bioterrorism Risk Assessment 10:45 Break Closed Session (Committee Members and NRC Staff Only) 11:00 a.m. 4:00 p.m. Adjourn NOVEMBER 19-20, 2006 Sunday, November 19, 2006 Closed Session (Committee Members and NRC Staff Only) 8:00 a.m. Data-Gathering Session Open to the Public 10:30 a.m. Break 11:00 Manufactured Bioagents Prof. Stephen Morse, Director, Center for Public Health Preparedness at the Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University 12:00 noon Lunch 1:00 p.m. Emerging Methods for Handling Large Degrees of Dr. Alyson Wilson, Technical Staff Member, Uncertainty Statistician and Technical Lead, Department of Defense Programs, Los Alamos National Laboratory 2:00 Strategies for Adversarial Risk Analysis Prof. David Banks, Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke University 2:30 Frequentist Approach to Risk Analysis Prof. Tapan Nayak, Department of Statistics, George Washington University 3:30 Break

APPENDIX K 151 Closed Session (Committee Members and NRC Staff Only) 3:45 p.m. 5:30 p.m. Reception Monday, November 20, 2006 Closed Session (Committee Members and NRC Staff Only) 8:00 a.m. Data-Gathering Session Open to the Public 9:30 a.m. DHS Chemical Agent Risk Analysis Dr. George Famini, DHS Closed Session (Committee Members and NRC Staff Only) 10:30 p.m. FEBRUARY 9-10, 2007 Friday, February 9, 2007 Closed Session (Committee Members and NRC Staff Only) 8:00 a.m. Data-Gathering Session Open to the Public1 8:45 a.m. Medical Response and Preparedness for a Dr. Norman Coleman, National Institutes of Health Radiological/Nuclear Event Dr. Peter Highnam, Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures (PHEMC)/Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR)/Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) 9:45 Perspectives on Risk Assessment for a Global Mr. Mark Mullen, Lead Systems Architect, Defense Nuclear Detection Architecture Nuclear Detection Office/DHS 10:30 Break 10:45 Strategic Biodefense Prof. Tara O’Toole, University of Pittsburgh 11:45 Lunch 12:30 p.m. Systems Dynamics Approach to the Spread of Ms. Cheryl Dingus, Battelle Infectious Disease Ms. Michelle Gisi, Battelle 1:30 The Spread of Infectious Disease Prof. Marc Lipsitch, Harvard University 1The committee deviated from this published schedule to hear an open briefing from Rear Admiral Jay Cohen, Undersecretary of Science and Technology of the Department of Homeland Security: “DHS Science and Technology: Enabling Technology to Protect the Nation,” from approximately 11:30 to 12:30.

152 DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY BIOTERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT Saturday, February 10, 2007 Open Session 2 8:00 a.m. DHS Reaction to Interim Report Dr. Steve Bennett, DHS Changes at DHS 10:30 Break 10:45 Institute for Defense Analyses Approach to Risk Dr. James Morgensen, IDA Assessment for Critical Infrastructure 11:45 Lunch Closed Session (Committee Members and NRC Staff Only) 12:30 p.m. MAY 18-19, 2007 Friday, May 18, 2007 Closed Session (Committee Members and NRC Staff Only) 8:00 a.m. Saturday, May 19, 2007 Closed Session (Committee Members and NRC Staff Only) 8:00 a.m. 2This included the briefing: “2008 DHS Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: Planned Improvements,” by Traci Hale of Battelle Memorial Institute.

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Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change Get This Book
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The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the book published in December 2008, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates.

This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled.

Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat.

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