Gregory S. Parnell, Chair, is professor of systems engineering at the United States Military Academy at West Point and teaches decision and risk analysis, systems engineering, and operations research. His research focuses on decision analysis, risk analysis, resource allocation, and systems engineering for defense, intelligence, homeland security, research and development (R&D), and environmental applications. He co-edited Decision Making for Systems Engineering and Management, Wiley Series in Systems Engineering (Wiley and Sons, 2008), and has published more than 100 papers and book chapters. He is a member of the Chief Technology Officer and Information Assurance Panels of the National Security Agency Advisory Board and is a former member of the Department of Energy’s Environmental Management National Prioritization Team. He is a senior principal with Innovative Decisions, Inc., a decision and risk analysis firm, and a former principal with Toffler Associates, a strategic advisory firm. Dr. Parnell is a former president of the Decision Analysis Society of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS) and of the Military Operations Research Society (MORS). He has also served as editor of Journal of Military Operations Research. Dr. Parnell is a retired Air Force colonel with experience in space operations, R&D management, and operations research. Dr. Parnell received his Ph.D. from Stanford University and is a graduate of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces. He has received several professional awards, including the United States Army Dr. Wilbur B. Payne Memorial Award for Excellence in Analysis, MORS Clayton Thomas Laureate, two INFORMS Koopman Prizes, and the MORS Rist Prize. He was elected a fellow of the MORS in 1997 for his contributions to military operations research.
David Banks is a professor in the Department of Statistical Science at Duke University. He is currently chair of the American Statistical Association (ASA) Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security and is a past chair of the Section on Risk Analysis. He is editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association, a member of the board of directors of the ASA, and a former member of the ASA’s Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics.
Luciana L. Borio, M.D., is senior associate at the Center for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center and assistant professor of medicine at the University of Pittsburgh. She also serves part time at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) as an adviser on biodefense programs. She is an infectious disease physician and continues to practice medicine at Johns Hopkins Hospital. Dr. Borio’s work focuses on policies to improve the nation’s preparedness for bioterrorism, by supporting threat assessments, medical countermeasures development, and medical response plans. Dr. Borio is an associate editor of the peer-reviewed journal Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, and she is co-managing editor of the Clinicians’ Biosecurity Network, a real-time, online communications network designed to facilitate communications among physicians during health care crises. She serves on the Global and Public Health Committee and the Bioemergencies Task Force of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. She has lectured extensively and has published a series of manuscripts and book chapters on biodefense-related issues. Dr. Borio is a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, Phi Beta Kappa, and Alpha Omega Alpha. Prior to joining the Center for Biosecurity at its founding in 2003, she was a senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies and assistant professor of medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University. In 2002, Dr. Borio left the Johns Hopkins Center to work full time as senior health advisor at HHS. There she implemented and managed mathematical modeling projects to assess the health effects of bioterrorism on civilians and to inform medical countermeasures procurement activities for the Office of Preparedness and Response. She rejoined the Johns Hopkins Center in 2003 and continues to serve part time at HHS,
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Appendix L
Biographies of Committee Members
Gregory S. Parnell, Chair, is professor of systems engineer- American Statistical Association, a member of the board of
ing at the United States Military Academy at West Point and directors of the ASA, and a former member of the ASA’s
teaches decision and risk analysis, systems engineering, and Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics.
operations research. His research focuses on decision analy-
Luciana L. Borio, M.D., is senior associate at the Center
sis, risk analysis, resource allocation, and systems engineer-
ing for defense, intelligence, homeland security, research for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical
and development (R&D), and environmental applications. Center and assistant professor of medicine at the University
He co-edited Decision Making for Systems Engineering and of Pittsburgh. She also serves part time at the U.S. Depart-
Management, Wiley Series in Systems Engineering (Wiley ment of Health and Human Services (HHS) as an adviser
and Sons, 2008), and has published more than 100 papers on biodefense programs. She is an infectious disease physi-
and book chapters. He is a member of the Chief Technology cian and continues to practice medicine at Johns Hopkins
Officer and Information Assurance Panels of the National Hospital. Dr. Borio’s work focuses on policies to improve
Security Agency Advisory Board and is a former member the nation’s preparedness for bioterrorism, by supporting
of the Department of Energy’s Environmental Management threat assessments, medical countermeasures development,
National Prioritization Team. He is a senior principal with and medical response plans. Dr. Borio is an associate editor
Innovative Decisions, Inc., a decision and risk analysis firm, of the peer-reviewed journal Biosecurity and Bioterrorism:
and a former principal with Toffler Associates, a strategic ad- Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, and she is co-
visory firm. Dr. Parnell is a former president of the Decision managing editor of the Clinicians’ Biosecurity Network,
Analysis Society of the Institute for Operations Research a real-time, online communications network designed to
and Management Science (INFORMS) and of the Military facilitate communications among physicians during health
Operations Research Society (MORS). He has also served care crises. She serves on the Global and Public Health Com-
as editor of Journal of Military Operations Research. Dr. mittee and the Bioemergencies Task Force of the Infectious
Parnell is a retired Air Force colonel with experience in space Diseases Society of America. She has lectured extensively
operations, R&D management, and operations research. Dr. and has published a series of manuscripts and book chapters
Parnell received his Ph.D. from Stanford University and is on biodefense-related issues. Dr. Borio is a member of the
a graduate of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces. Infectious Diseases Society of America, Phi Beta Kappa,
He has received several professional awards, including the and Alpha Omega Alpha. Prior to joining the Center for Bi-
United States Army Dr. Wilbur B. Payne Memorial Award osecurity at its founding in 2003, she was a senior fellow at
for Excellence in Analysis, MORS Clayton Thomas Laure- the Johns Hopkins University Center for Civilian Biodefense
ate, two INFORMS Koopman Prizes, and the MORS Rist Strategies and assistant professor of medicine in the Division
Prize. He was elected a fellow of the MORS in 1997 for his of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University. In 2002,
contributions to military operations research. Dr. Borio left the Johns Hopkins Center to work full time as
senior health advisor at HHS. There she implemented and
David Banks is a professor in the Department of Statisti- managed mathematical modeling projects to assess the health
cal Science at Duke University. He is currently chair of the effects of bioterrorism on civilians and to inform medical
American Statistical Association (ASA) Section on Statistics countermeasures procurement activities for the Office of
in Defense and National Security and is a past chair of the Preparedness and Response. She rejoined the Johns Hopkins
Section on Risk Analysis. He is editor of the Journal of the Center in 2003 and continues to serve part time at HHS,
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DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY BIOTERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT
where she advises on the requirements for and development the University of Colorado at Denver and is clinical profes-
of medical countermeasures. She received a B.S. in 1992 and sor of preventive medicine and biometrics at the University
an M.D. in 1996 from the George Washington University. of Colorado Health Sciences Center, where he teaches and
She completed residency in 1999 in internal medicine at the guides graduate research on uncertainty analysis and causa-
New York Presbyterian Hospital-Cornell Medical Center, tion in epidemiological studies. He is on the editorial board
and subsequently completed a combined fellowship in infec- of Risk Analysis: An International Journal and is co-editor
tious diseases (at Johns Hopkins University) and critical care of the Journal of Heuristics. He is a full member of the Insti-
medicine (at the National Institutes of Health). tute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences,
the Society for Risk Analysis, and the American Statistical
Gerald G. Brown is Distinguished Professor of Operations Association. He has chaired numerous conference sessions
Research at the Naval Postgraduate School, where he has on various aspects of risk, uncertainty, network design, and
taught and conducted basic and applied research in optimi- optimization. Dr. Cox was elected to the New York Acad-
zation theory and optimization-based decision support since emy of Sciences in 1992 and was made a lifetime fellow of
1973, earning awards for both outstanding teaching and the Society for Risk Analysis in 1993. In 1994, he was a
research. His military research has been applied by every recipient of the Operations Research Society of America’s
uniformed service, in areas ranging from strategic nuclear prestigious ORSA prize for the best real-world applications
targeting to capital planning. Professor Brown has been of operations research having profound business impact. In
awarded the Rist Prize for military operations research and addition to hands-on experience and professional activities
has been credited with guiding investments of more than a in telecommunications decision and risk analysis, operations
trillion dollars. He has designed and implemented decision research, artificial intelligence, and applied statistics, Dr.
support software currently used by two-thirds of the For- Cox has authored and co-authored more than 100 journal ar-
tune 50 companies, in areas ranging from vehicle routing to ticles and book chapters on advanced aspects of these fields.
supply-chain optimization. His research appears in scores of He holds more than a dozen U.S. and international patents
open-literature publications and classified reports, many of on applications of network optimization, speech recognition,
which are seminal references in the field. He is also a fellow and signal processing technologies in telecommunications.
of the Institute for Operations Research and Management
John Gannon is vice president for global analysis at BAE
Science and is a founding director of Insight, Inc., the leading
provider of strategic supply-chain optimization-based deci- Systems. He joined BAE Systems after serving as staff direc-
sion support tools to the private sector. He is a retired naval tor of the U.S. House of Representatives Homeland Security
officer and was recently elected to the National Academy of Committee, the first new committee established by Congress
Engineering. in more than 30 years. In 2002-2003, he was a team leader
in the White House’s Transitional Planning Office for the
Anthony Cox, Jr., is president of Cox Associates, an in- Department of Homeland Security. He served previously in
dependent, Denver-based applied research and consulting the senior-most analytic positions in the intelligence com-
company specializing in wireless and optical network design munity, including as the Central Intelligence Agency’s di-
and optimization software tools, customer data mining and rector of European analysis, deputy director for intelligence,
predictive modeling, and decision and risk analysis technolo- chairman of the National Intelligence Council, and assistant
gies. Dr. Cox has a Ph.D. in risk analysis and an S.M. in director of central intelligence for analysis and production.
operations research, both from the Massachusetts Institute In the private sector, he developed the analytic workforce
of Technology’s Department of Electrical Engineering and for Intellibridge Corporation, a Web-based provider of
Computer Science; and an A.B. from Harvard University. outsourced analysis for government and corporate clients.
Prior to starting Cox Associates in 1986, he consulted in risk He served as a naval officer in Southeast Asia and later in
analysis, economics and statistics, operations research, and several Naval Reserve commands, retiring as a captain. Dr.
artificial intelligence at Arthur D. Little, Inc., in Cambridge, Gannon has a bachelor’s degree from Holy Cross College
Massachusetts. From 1987 to 1996, he managed applied in Worcester, Massachusetts, and master’s and doctorate
research and high-technology product development efforts degrees from Washington University in St. Louis. He is an
for US WEST Advanced Technologies in Boulder, Colo- adjunct professor in the National Security Studies Program
rado. He was senior director of advanced communications at Georgetown University.
research, business and engineering modeling, and network
Eric Harvill is an associate professor of microbiology and
architectures. He is currently an honorary full professor
of mathematics at the University of Colorado at Denver, infectious disease at Pennsylvania State University. After
where he lectures on topics in biomathematics, health risk graduate studies in molecular immunology and postdoctoral
modeling, computational statistics, and machine learning. research in bacterial pathogenesis, he established a group that
Dr. Cox is on the faculties of the Center for Computational examines the interactions between bacterial pathogens and
Mathematics and the Center for Computational Biology at the host immune system to determine the molecular bases
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APPENDIX L
for these complex interactions. More recently, Dr. Harvill Academy of Microbiology and the American College of
has examined the evolution of closely related respiratory Epidemiology, a life member of the Council on Foreign
pathogens of the genus Bordetella, examining the genomic Relations, and serves on the National Research Council’s
and genetic differences that distinguish persistent commen- standing Committee on Biodefense Analysis and Counter-
sals of all the animals around us from the acute and virulent measures. Dr. Morse received his Ph.D. from the University
forms that infect nearly all humans, causing whooping of Wisconsin-Madison.
cough only in those who are not vaccinated. His laboratory
Marguerite Pappaioanou is executive director of the
uses a combination of the approaches common to bacterial
pathogenesis, bacterial genomics/transcriptomics, compara- Association of American Veterinary Medical Colleges
tive biology, and molecular immunology to understand the (AAVMC). Before joining AAVMC on November 1, 2007,
evolution of these pathogens. she had served the previous 3 years as professor of infectious
disease epidemiology in the School of Public Health at the
Howard Kunreuther is the Cecilia Yen Koo Professor of University of Minnesota, which followed a 21½ year career
Decision Sciences and Public Policy at the Wharton School, at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Her areas
University of Pennsylvania, as well as co-director of the of interests include emerging zoonotic infectious diseases,
Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center. with a special interest in influenza viruses, malaria, and HIV;
He has a long-standing interest in ways that society can better bioterrorism and agroterrorism; disease surveillance; and
manage low-probability–high-consequence events as they disease prevention and control. She actively promotes linking
relate to technological and natural hazards and has published human and animal health and the use of data in formulating
extensively on the topic. He is a fellow of the American As- evidence-based health policies.
sociation for the Advancement of Science and Distinguished
Stephen Pollock is Herrick Emeritus Professor of Manufac-
Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis, receiving the soci-
ety’s Distinguished Achievement Award in 2001. Professor turing and emeritus professor of industrial and operations
Kunreuther has written or co-edited a number of books and engineering at the University of Michigan. He has taught
papers, including Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to courses in decision analysis, mathematical modeling, dy-
Managing Risk (with Patricia Grossi) and Wharton on Mak- namic programming, and stochastic processes. His recent
ing Decisions (with Stephen Hoch). He is a recipient of the research activities include developing cost-optimal monitor-
Elizur Wright Award for the publication that makes the most ing and maintenance policies, sequential hypothesis testing,
significant contribution to the literature of insurance. modeling large multiserver systems, and dynamic optimiza-
tion of radiation treatment plans. Dr. Pollock was the director
Stephen S. Morse is founding director of the Center for of the Program in Financial Engineering and the Engineering
Public Health Preparedness at the Mailman School of Public Global Leadership honors program. He has been area editor
Health of Columbia University and is a full professor in the of Operations Research, senior editor of IIE Transactions,
Epidemiology Department. He also holds an adjunct fac- president of the Operations Research Society of America,
ulty appointment at the Rockefeller University. Dr. Morse and a senior fellow of The University of Michigan Society
returned to Columbia University in 2000 after 4 years in of Fellows. He is a founding fellow of the Institute for Op-
government service as program manager at the Defense erations Research and the Management Sciences, and was
Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department awarded its Kimball Medal in 2002. He was a member of
of Defense. In that position, he co-directed the Pathogen the Army Science Board and is a member of the National
Countermeasures program and subsequently directed the Academy of Engineering.
Advanced Diagnostics program. Dr. Morse was chair and
Nozer D. Singpurwalla is professor of statistics and Dis-
principal organizer of the 1989 National Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health Confer- tinguished Research Professor at the George Washington
ence on Emerging Viruses and has served as an adviser to the University in Washington, D.C. He has been a visiting pro-
World Health Organization, the Pan-American Health Orga- fessor at Carnegie Mellon University, Stanford University,
nization, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the the University of Florida at Tallahassee, and the University
Food and Drug Administration, and other agencies. He was of California, Berkeley. During the fall of 1991, he was the
the founding chair of ProMED (the nonprofit international first C.C. Garvin Visiting Endowed Professor in the Math-
Program to Monitor Emerging Diseases) and was one of ematical Sciences at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and
the originators of ProMED-mail, a network inaugurated by State University. He is fellow of the Institute of Mathematical
ProMED in 1994 for outbreak reporting and disease moni- Statistics, the American Statistical Association (ASA), and
toring using the Internet. Dr. Morse currently serves on the the American Association for the Advancement of Science,
steering committee of the Institute of Medicine’s (IOM’s) and he is an elected member of the International Statistical
Forum on Emerging Infections and was previously a member Institute. Dr. Singpurwalla is the 1984 recipient of the U.S.
of other IOM committees. He is a fellow of the American Army’s S.S. Wilks Award for Contributions to Statistical
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DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY BIOTERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT
Methodologies in Army Research, Development and Test- in the Statistical Sciences Group at the Los Alamos National
ing and was the first recipient of The George Washington Laboratory. Prior to her move to Los Alamos, Dr. Wilson
University’s Oscar and Shoshana Trachtenberg Prize for was a senior operations research systems analyst working
Faculty Scholarship. He co-authored a standard book in re- in support of the U.S. Army Operational Evaluation Com-
liability and has published 157 papers on reliability theory, mand, Air Defense Artillery Evaluation Directorate. She also
warranties, failure data analysis, Bayesian statistical infer- spent 2 years at the National Institutes of Health performing
ence, dynamic models and time series analysis, quality con- research in the biomedical sciences. Her research focuses
trol, and statistical aspects of software engineering. In 1993 on Bayesian methods, with emphasis on reliability model-
he was selected by the National Science Foundation (NSF), ing and information combination. She is the past chair of
ASA, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology the American Statistical Association Section on Statistics
(NIST) as the ASA/NIST/NSF Senior Research Fellow. In in Defense and National Security and chair of the American
1993 he was awarded a Rockefeller Foundation grant as a Statistical Association’s President’s Task Force in Defense
scholar in residence at the Bellagio, Italy, Center. and Security. She received her Ph.D. in statistics from
the Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences at Duke
Alyson Wilson is a project leader, technical staff member, University.
and the technical lead for Department of Defense programs