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## Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change (2008) Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications (BMSA)Board on Life Sciences (BLS)

### Citation Manager

. "Appendix B: Mathematical Characterization of the Biological Threat Risk Assessment Event Tree and Risk Assessment." Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.

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Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change

FIGURE B.1 Mathematical definition of BTRA event tree and solution for tree probabilities. This defines a BTRA event tree and shows how to completely evaluate all probabilities for every path. This definition applies whether or not the tree includes all agents, or just one of them.

FIGURE B.2 Mathematical definition of BTRA risk analysis. This shows how to completely evaluate all cost consequences and risk (expected cost). The paths here have one extra, final stage that BTRA does not: This stage eliminates the necessity for separate notation for consequence distributions, with each of its outcomes resulting in a scalar cost consequence. A Monte Carlo sampling to estimate these computed parameters would proceed by randomly selecting a path pG−1={a1,a2,…,aG−1} (the probability of this path could be computed by but this is not essential) and collecting this result as a sample statistic.

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 Front Matter (R1-R14) Summary (1-5) 1 Introduction (6-10) 2 The Critical Contribution of Risk Analysis to Risk Management and Reduction of Bioterrorism Risk (11-19) 3 Description and Analysis of the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Threat Risk Assessment of 2006 (20-33) 4 Department of Homeland Security Decision Requirements for Risk Management (34-41) 5 Risk Assessment for Unknown and Engineered Biothreat Agents (42-46) 6 Improving Bioterrorism Consequence Assessment (47-50) 7 Improving the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Threat Risk Assessment and Adding Risk Management (51-60) Appendix A: Lexicon (61-77) Appendix B: Mathematical Characterization of the Biological Threat Risk Assessment Event Tree and Risk Assessment (78-79) Appendix C: Computational Example Illustrating the Replacement of a Joint Distribution of Arc Probabilities with Marginal Expected Values of Individual Arc Probabilities (80-84) Appendix D: Bioterrorism Risk Analysis with Decision Trees (85-89) Appendix E: Optimizing Department of Homeland Security Defense Investments: Applying Defender-Attacker (-Defender) Optimization to Terror Risk Assessment and Mitigation (90-102) Appendix F: Combining Game Theory and Risk Analysis in Counterterrorism: A Smallpox Example (103-110) Appendix G: On the Quantification of Uncertainty and Enhancing Probabilistic Risk Analysis (111-115) Appendix H: Game Theory and Interdependencies (116-121) Appendix I: Review of BTRA Modeling (122-125) Appendix J: Reprinted Interim Report (126-148) Appendix K: Meeting Agendas (149-152) Appendix L: Biographies of Committee Members (153-156) Appendix M: Acronyms (157-158)