. "Appendix C Modeling a Hydrogen Transition." Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies--A Focus on Hydrogen. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.
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Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies — A Focus on Hydrogen
Consider incremental costs for vehicles and H2 fuel separately:
Incremental vehicle cost ($) = Σ Number of new HFCVs (i) × [first cost HFCV (i) − first cost reference vehicle (i)], i = 1 to the breakeven year
Incremental fuel cost ($) = number of HFCVs in the fleet (i) × [fuel cost HFCV (i) − fuel cost reference vehicle (i)], i = 1 to the breakeven year
Adding up the infrastructure capital costs to the breakeven year gives an indication of cumulative costs to energy companies. These are the cumulative costs that would be borne by automakers or energy companies to reach breakeven.
Step 4: Estimating Policy Costs
Vehicle subsidy is subtracted from vehicle first cost.
The cost of policies can be estimated over time, either to the breakeven year or to some set “policy horizon.”
The cost of a direct subsidy to energy providers (e.g., pay for 50 percent of cost of first stations) could be calculated in an analogous fashion.
Step 5: Estimating Savings in Oil Use and GHG emissions(Figures C.3 and C.4)
Using a vehicle stock model, keep track of the number of HFCVs of each model year in the fleet.
Each year, the H2 vehicles displace a certain amount of gasoline use (the gasoline that would have been used by reference gasoline cars, if the HFCVs had not been introduced).
The HFCVs have certain well-to-wheels GHG emissions, depending on the assumed H2 supply options (which are estimated separately and input to the scenario). These emissions are lower than those of the reference gasoline vehicle, and GHG emission reductions can be estimated for each year.
FIGURE C.3 Oil saved per year with different scenarios compared to the reference case.
FIGURE C.4 Greenhouse gas emissions avoided compared to the reference case.
