efficiency levels assumed in this study. Similarly, advancements in battery and electronics technology for hybrids will likely find direct application in fuel cell vehicles, while some technologies used to produce biofuels also could be adopted for hydrogen production (such as gasification of biomass or on-site reformers using biomass).

CONCLUSION 15 (same as Conclusion 1): A portfolio of technologies including hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, improved efficiency of conventional vehicles, hybrids, and use of biofuels—in conjunction with required new policy drivers—has the potential to nearly eliminate gasoline use in light-duty vehicles by the middle of this century, while reducing fleet greenhouse gas emissions to less than 20 percent of current levels. This portfolio approach provides a hedge against potential shortfalls in any one technological approach and improves the probability that the United States can meet its energy and environmental goals. Other technologies also may hold promise as part of a portfolio, but further study is required to assess their potential impacts. See Chapter 9.


EIA (Energy Information Administration). 2008. Annual Energy Outlook 2008: With Projections to 2030. Report DOE/EIA-0383. Washington, D.C.

Greene, D., P. Leiby, and D. Bowman. 2007. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn.

Gronich, S. 2007. 2010-2025 Hydrogen Scenario Analysis. Presentation to the committee, February 20.

NRC (National Research Council). 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press.

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