. "6 Hydrogen and Alternative Technologies for Reduction of U.S. Oil Use and CO2 Emissions." Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies--A Focus on Hydrogen. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.
The following HTML text is provided to enhance online
readability. Many aspects of typography translate only awkwardly to HTML.
Please use the page image
as the authoritative form to ensure accuracy.
Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies — A Focus on Hydrogen
BOX 6.1
Sensitivity of Breakeven Analysis Results to Changes in Assumptions
The results of an analysis of the costs and timing of a hydrogen transition depend on many assumptions and inputs and are sensitive to changes in four important input parameters:
The fuel economy of an HFCV compared to a reference gasoline vehicle;
The incremental cost of an H2FCV compared to a gasoline reference vehicle;
The cost of hydrogen; and
The cost of gasoline (dollars per gallon).
The values of these parameters for Case 1 (Hydrogen Success) are shown in Table 6.1.1. Also shown are potential high and low values for each parameter. Each parameter is varied over this range.
Three key metrics that describe a hydrogen transition are:
The “breakeven year”;
The “breakeven cost” (e.g., cumulative cash flow to get to the breakeven year); and
The total capital cost (the incremental cost for HFCVs + the infrastructure cost) to get to the breakeven year.
TABLE 6.1.1 Range Over Which Parameter Values Can Vary for Case 1
Parameter
Low Value
Case 1 Value
High Value
Fuel economy of HFCV versus fuel economy of efficient gasoline car
1.3
2
3
Incremental cost of HFCV compared to reference gasoline vehicle
1,713
(FC system = $50/kW; H2 storage = $2/kWh)
3,600
(FC system = $50/kW; H2 storage = $10/kWh)
6,800
(FC system = $62/kW; H2 storage = $18/kWh)
Incremental cost of H2 compared to Case 1 long-term cost
−$2/kg
0
$2/kg
Price of oil
0.5 × high-price case (oil at $40-$60/bbl in 2012-2030)
Oil price from AEO 2008 high-price case (oil at $80-$120/bbl in transition period 2012-2030)
1.3 × high price case (oil at $105-$160/bbl in 2030)
