FIGURE 6.29 Oil use for Cases 2 and 3 combined.

FIGURE 6.30 Greenhouse gas emission reductions for Cases 2 and 3 combined.

Case 4 (Portfolio): Implement Efficient ICEVS plus Biofuels and Hydrogen FCVs

Case 4 combines all three of the major options discussed above. Figure 6.31 shows the assumed numbers of vehicles in the fleet over time. Note that the number of hydrogen vehicles is the same as in Case 1 (Hydrogen Success) and the number of gasoline ICEVs is the same as in Case 2 (ICEV Efficiency). The number of advanced gasoline ICEVs (hybrids) increases, but eventually loses market share to HFCVs.

Figure 6.32 shows the reduction in petroleum consumption over time for Case 4. Gasoline use is virtually eliminated in the light duty vehicle fleet by 2050. Table 6.9 shows the reduction in gasoline use for the four cases relative to the reference case.

Table 6.10 lists the emissions reductions relative to the reference case for the four cases. Emissions of greenhouse gas over time are shown in Figure 6.33. The cumulative impact of reductions is shown in Figure 6.34. With a combined approach including efficiency, biofuels, and hydrogen fuel cells, it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions by about 90 percent and gasoline use by 99 percent by 2050.

FIGURE 6.31 Assumed number of vehicles in the fleet for Case 4.

FIGURE 6.32 Oil use in million gallons per year for Case 4.

TABLE 6.9 Gasoline Displacement for Cases 1-4 Compared to Reference Case

Case

Billion Gallons Gasoline Saved per Year (% Saved)

2020

2035

2050

Case 1 (Hydrogen Success)

1.0 (0.8%)

34 (24%)

109 (69%)

Case 2 (ICEV Efficiency)

2.2 (1.7%)

35 (25%)

64 (41%)

HFCVs + ICEV Efficiency

3.0 (2.2%)

55 (39%)

125 (80%)

Case 3 (Biofuels)

12 (9%)

28 (20%)

39 (25%)

Case 3 + Case 2 Biofuels + ICEV Efficiency

14 (11%)

64 (45%)

103 (66%)

Case 4: ICEV Efficiency (Case 2) + Biofuels (Case 3) + Hydrogen (Case 1)

15 (11%)

83 (59%)

157 (100%)



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