. "6 Hydrogen and Alternative Technologies for Reduction of U.S. Oil Use and CO2 Emissions." Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies--A Focus on Hydrogen. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.
FIGURE 6.33 Greenhouse gas emissions for Case 4 (combination of HFCVs, efficiency, and biofuels).
FIGURE 6.34 Cumulative reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for Case 2, Case 3 plus Case 2, and Case 4.
CONCLUSION: In the judgment of the committee, themaximum practicable number of HFCVs that could be onthe road by 2020 is around 2 million. Subsequently, thisnumber could grow rapidly to as many as 60 million by2035 and more than 200 million by midcentury, but suchrapid and widespread deployment will require continuedtechnical success, cost reductions from volume production, and government policies to sustain the introductionof HFCVs into the market during the transition periodneeded for technical progress.
CONCLUSION: While it will take several decades forHFCVs to have major impact, under the maximum practicable scenario fuel cell vehicles would lead to significantreductions in oil consumption and also significant reductions in CO2emissions if national policies are enacted torestrict CO2emissions from central hydrogen productionplants.
CONCLUSION: The unit costs of fuel cell vehicles andhydrogen in the Hydrogen Success scenario—the maximum practicable case—decline rapidly with increasingvehicle production, and by 2023 the cost premium forHFCVs relative to conventional gasoline vehicles is projected to be fully offset by the savings in fuel cost over thelife of the vehicle relative to a reference case based on theEIA high-oil-price scenario. At that point, according tothe committee’s analysis, HFCVs become economicallycompetitive in the marketplace.
Fully implementing the maximum practicable hydrogen case by 2050 would require construction of approximately 80,000 on-site distributed natural gas reforming units, 80 coal gasification plants of 500 MW (electrical equivalent) with CCS, 130 biomass gasification plants (each 100 MW equivalent) with associated biomass growth and collection farms, and roughly 80,000 miles of pipelines for hydrogen supply and CCS. The committee estimates that more than $400 billion would be required to fully build out hydrogen supply to fuel the HFCVs by 2050.
The committee’s analysis indicates that at least two alternatives to HFCVs—advanced conventional vehicles and biofuels—have the potential to provide significant reductions in projected oil imports and CO2 emissions. However, the rate of growth of benefits from each of these two measures slows after two or three decades, toward the end of the committee’s analysis period, while the growth rate of projected benefits from fuel cell vehicles is still increasing. The deepest cuts in oil use and CO2 emissions after about 2040 would be from hydrogen.
Over the next 20 years, the greatest impact on U.S. oil and CO2 reductions would result from implementing existing