6.13

 

Cash flows for Case 1,

 

81

6.14

 

Greenhouse gas emissions from hydrogen supply over time,

 

83

6.15

 

Case 1 gasoline consumption relative to the reference case,

 

83

6.16

 

Case 1 greenhouse gas emissions relative to the reference case,

 

83

6.17

 

Case 2 assumed market penetration for gasoline ICEVs and advanced gasoline HEVs,

 

86

6.18

 

Case 2 assumed on-road fuel economy for new gasoline ICEVs and gasoline hybrid ICEVs over time,

 

86

6.19

 

Gasoline consumption for Case 2 and for the reference case,

 

87

6.20

 

Greenhouse gas emissions for Case 2 and for the reference case,

 

87

6.21

 

Annual production of biofuels assumed for Case 3,

 

88

6.22

 

Case 3: Added biofuel production relative to the reference case,

 

88

6.23

 

Case 3: Oil displacement relative to the reference case,

 

88

6.24

 

Case 3: Greenhouse gas emission reductions relative to the reference case,

 

88

6.25

 

Oil consumption for Cases 1-3 compared,

 

89

6.26

 

Greenhouse gas emissions for Cases 1-3 compared,

 

89

6.27

 

Oil use for Cases 1 and 2 combined,

 

89

6.28

 

Greenhouse gas emissions with HFCVs for Cases 1 and 2 combined,

 

89

6.29

 

Oil use for Cases 2 and 3 combined,

 

90

6.30

 

Greenhouse gas emission reductions for Cases 2 and 3 combined,

 

90

6.31

 

Assumed number of vehicles in the fleet for Case 4,

 

90

6.32

 

Oil use in million gallons per year for Case 4,

 

90

6.33

 

Greenhouse gas emissions for Case 4,

 

91

6.34

 

Cumulative reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for Case 2, Case 3 plus Case 2, and Case 4,

 

91

6.1.1

 

Sensitivity of breakeven year to changes in HCFV fuel economy, HFCV price, H2 cost, and gasoline price,

 

85

6.1.2

 

Sensitivity of buydown cost (billion dollars) to changes in HFCV fuel economy, HFCV price, H2 cost, and gasoline price,

 

85

6.1.3

 

Sensitivity of capital investment to breakeven year (incremental price of HFCVs + H2 infrastructure capital, billion dollars),

 

85

7.1

 

Total annual expenditures for vehicles and hydrogen supply for transition to the breakeven year for the Hydrogen Success case, excluding RD&D costs,

 

97

7.2

 

Annual government expenditures through the transition to 2023,

 

98

7.3

 

Total annual costs of transition to the breakeven year for the Case 1 scenario, including RD&D costs plus total vehicle and hydrogen supply costs,

 

99

7.4

 

Total annual costs of RD&D plus incremental costs of HFCVs over conventional vehicles up to the breakeven year for the Case 1 scenario,

 

100

7.5

 

Diagram of the early structure of the hydrogen and fuel cell industries, identifying areas where skilled people will be needed,

 

101

8.1

 

Illustrative example of a price-based policy approach, indicating the per-vehicle subsidy from government for each fuel cell vehicle sold in a particular year for the Hydrogen Success (Case 1) scenario,

 

105

8.2

 

Illustrative example of a quantity-based policy approach, indicating the required fraction (quota) of all new vehicles sold in a particular year that must be fuel cell vehicles for the Hydrogen Success (Case 1) scenario,

 

105

C.1(a)

 

Flow diagram of simple transition model (STM) (part 1),

 

122

C.1(b)

 

Flow diagram of simple transition model (STM) (part 2), oil and greenhouse gas emissions saved,

 

123

C.2

 

Delivered hydrogen costs in selected cities,

 

123

C.3

 

Oil saved per year with different scenarios compared to the reference case,

 

124

C.4

 

Greenhouse gas emissions avoided compared to the reference case,

 

124

BOXES

3.1

 

The Hydrogen-powered ICEV,

 

33

3.2

 

Auto Dealers Selling HFCVs and Hydrogen,

 

33

6.1

 

Sensitivity of Breakeven Analysis Results to Changes in Assumptions,

 

84-85



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement