Equation (3)

Equation (4)

Coefficient

Standard Error

t-Value

Coefficient

Standard Error

t-Value

8.88

5.56

1.60

9.06

5.57

1.63

−0.19

0.08

−2.30

−0.20

0.08

−2.39

4.69

7.66

0.61

3.39

7.62

0.44

46.34

9.24

5.01

44.38

9.17

4.84

3.71

6.63

0.56

3.96

6.64

0.60

18.03

8.33

2.16

18.87

8.33

2.27

16.74

7.28

2.30

17.23

7.29

2.36

−20.35

13.40

−1.52

 

 

 

0.30

 

 

0.30

 

 

0.09

 

 

0.09

 

 

0.08

 

 

0.07

 

 

29.74

 

 

29.79

 

 

5.99

 

 

6.58

 

 

420

 

 

420

 

 

17,250 lambs, about 7 percent of average monthly disappearance, whenever Ramadan and Easter do not occur in the same months.

Across all equations, the R2 is low as expected because of the construction of the independent variable. Nonetheless, the F-value is consistently significant in all cases.

In general, there appears to be a discernable impact of the Muslim holiday periods and the Christian and Orthodox Easter holiday periods on the disappearance levels of lamb and yearlings. As well, the impact of these holidays appears to be increasing with time. To the extent that some lamb is purchased directly from farms and not recorded in official tallies of slaughter, these results underestimate the impact of these religious periods. As well, because of the construction of the independent variable, there will also be some (minor) underestimation of the religious event impacts.

Other datasets were examined as well using the above methodology, although the results are not shown here. Prices for slaughter lambs from the San Angelo, Texas, and Sioux Falls, South Dakota markets were substituted for the USDA price in the equations. These price datasets were constructed from price series obtained through the courtesy of the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC, 2007). In these cases, coefficients and their significance levels were quite similar to those reported above.



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