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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
The information developed to date on costs appears inadequate as justification for the MPAR R&D effort. Given the magnitude of the proposed effort, more complete information is needed on the estimation of the costs of the MPAR risk-reduction program.
Recommendation: The R&D Plan outlined in Appendix D in the JAG/PARP Reportshould be expanded to provide detailed descriptions of the tasks to be undertaken, theirpriorities, the associated costs, and key decision points.
The major potential benefits from the MPAR R&D effort are the likely benefits from an MPAR system in whatever form that system is deployed. A cost-benefit analysis of the deployed MPAR system is needed, as described earlier, in order to determine the potential benefits from the R&D effort. These potential benefits would be weighted by the (subjective) probability that the R&D program would establish the viability of the MPAR alternative to MRCR. There is no discussion in the JAG/PARP report of probability estimates for success or failure at any critical decision points in the R&D program.
Recommendation: Probability estimates of the likelihood of success/failure ofachieving objectives at critical decision points in the R&D program should bedeveloped.
The discussion of cost savings of an MPAR program in the JAG/PARP report focuses on a future system implemented to replace the legacy systems. In addition to the need for a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the full implementation of an MPAR system based on results of the risk reduction R&D program, there needs to be a complete CBA of the risk reduction program itself prior to funding of the program. This CBA would assess the expected net benefits of the MPAR R&D program in relation to the proposed $215 million R&D cost. In order to accomplish this it is necessary to have baseline information on the expected long-term benefits from a future MPAR system. A CBA of the R&D program should consider a range of alternatives, including such things as partial replacement of the legacy radar system with T-MPAR and the potential benefits of investing in R&D to improve MRCR systems. The probability estimates of success could be derived from an expert assessment (Delphi method or other methods). These probabilities should then be updated if and as the R&D program proceeds and more information becomes available.