SPECIAL REPORT 293

Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands

DESIGNING A COMPREHENSIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

Committee on the Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: A Study to Design a Comprehensive Assessment

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

Washington, D.C.

2008
www.TRB.org



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SPECIAL REPORT 293 Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands DESIGNING A COMPREHENSIVE RISK ASSESSMENT Committee on the Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: A Study to Design a Comprehensive Assessment TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Washington, D.C. 2008 www.TRB.org

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Transportation Research Board Special Report 293 Subscriber Categories IV operations and safety IX marine transportation Transportation Research Board publications are available by ordering individual publi- cations directly from the TRB Business Office, through the Internet at www.TRB.org or national-academies.org/trb, or by annual subscription through organizational or indi- vidual affiliation with TRB. Affiliates and library subscribers are eligible for substantial discounts. For further information, contact the Transportation Research Board Business Office, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (telephone 202-334-3213; fax 202- 334-2519; or e-mail TRBsales@nas.edu). Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to the pro- cedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report was sponsored by the State of Alaska and the U.S. Coast Guard. Cover design by Debra Naylor, Naylor Design, Inc. Cover photographs by Kevin Bell, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (stellar sea lions); Peggy Michel (bald eagle); and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries (coral). Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board. Committee on the Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: A Study to Design a Comprehensive Assessment. Risk of vessel accidents and spills in the Aleutian Islands : designing a comprehensive risk assessment / Committee on the Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: A Study to Design a Comprehensive Assessment. p. cm.—(Transportation Research Board special report ; 293) Includes bibliographical references. 1. Oil spills—Risk assessment—Alaska—Aleutian Islands Region. 2. Oil spills—Risk assessment—Bering Sea. 3. Navigation—Alaska—Aleutian Islands Region. 4. Marine accidents—Risk assessment—Alaska—Aleutian Islands Region. 5. Marine accidents—Risk assessment—Bering Sea. I. Title. TD427.P4C635 2008 363.738'22097984—dc22 2008033069 ISBN 978-0-309-11332-8

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both the Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

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Committee on the Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: A Study to Design a Comprehensive Assessment R. Keith Michel, Chair, Herbert Engineering Corp., Alameda, California Dennis C. Bley, Buttonwood Consulting, Inc., Oakton, Virginia Thomas M. Leschine, University of Washington School of Marine Affairs, Seattle Henry S. Marcus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Denise McCafferty, American Bureau of Shipping, Houston, Texas (through April 2008) Ali Mosleh, University of Maryland, College Park Robert C. North, North Star Maritime, Inc., Queenstown, Maryland Margaret Williams, Bering Sea Ecoregion Program and Russia Projects, World Wildlife Fund, Anchorage, Alaska Transportation Research Board Staff Beverly M. Huey, Senior Program Officer Peter Johnson, Senior Program Officer

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Preface The Aleutian Islands are home to natural resources found nowhere else in the world, and the regional economy is dominated by com- mercial fishing. Protection of the region’s natural resources is therefore a paramount public concern. The Aleutian region is intersected by major commercial marine shipping routes—a large and growing international fleet of ships carrying various cargoes from the west coast of North America to Asia along the North Pacific Great Circle Route. With the excep- tion of a few containerships that call on the port of Dutch Harbor, most of these commercial ships transit through or near the Aleu- tians and do not stop except for emergencies. Some accidents involving these ships have resulted in oil spills that have had seri- ous environmental consequences. Indeed, history has shown that oil spill accidents in the Aleutians are not uncommon, in large part because of the frequent and sudden storms, high winds, and severe sea conditions to which the region is subject. Response to these events is often ineffective because of the severe weather and a lack of appropriate infrastructure. A commercial vessel accident and large oil spill in 2004 focused public attention on the risks inherent in commercial shipping in the region. The court settlement resulting from this accident estab- lished funding for a comprehensive risk assessment and directed the U.S. Coast Guard to take actions necessary to conduct this assessment. Risk assessment is a systematic approach used to evaluate the level of safety of a complex system and to identify appropriate safety improvements. It is an established engineering discipline and has been used in the maritime industry in the past with vary- ing degrees of success. Both the State of Alaska and the U.S. Coast Guard have had experience with maritime risk assessments, and vii

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viii • Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands both understand the complexity of the problem at hand, as well as the need for a well-designed process that will ensure a successful outcome. Consequently, they asked the National Academies to examine the available data and develop a framework and the most appropriate and scientifically rigorous approach possible for the mandated comprehensive risk assessment, and to design the assess- ment with a logical sequence of building blocks so that it could be conducted in discrete steps. To conduct this study, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) within the National Academies empaneled the Commit- tee on the Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: A Study to Design a Comprehensive Assessment. The committee included individuals with expertise in risk assessment methods and practices; risk assessment data and analyses; risk analyses, with emphasis on evaluation and prevention of ship accidents; commercial shipping, with emphasis on North Pacific operations; navigation safety and voyage planning; U.S. Coast Guard missions and operations related to waterway management and accident response; environmental protection; and regulatory approaches to ship safety and accident prevention. (Biographical sketches of the committee members can be found at the end of the report.) This report presents the committee’s analysis of the problem; reviews the available data; describes the structure and design of an appropriate risk assessment; and presents the com- mittee’s recommendations for organizing, managing, and con- ducting a comprehensive assessment of the risk of vessel accidents and spills in the Aleutian Islands. The committee met three times. During a multiday meeting (October 29–November 2, 2007) in Alaska with a site visit to Dutch Harbor, the committee heard from stakeholders and reviewed avail- able data pertinent to its charge. Stakeholders discussed specific hazards presented by Aleutian shipping operations and a range of possible mitigation measures they believed should be considered for implementation. At its second meeting, held January 7–8, 2008, the committee received presentations on the following topics: • Related maritime risk assessments, including the following: – Methodologies and approaches in recent and ongoing assessments in the United States (Puget Sound and San Francisco)

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Preface • ix – Methodologies and approaches in recent assessments in Europe – Methodologies employed in limited-scope risk analyses • Spill response and environmental impacts: – Vessel casualties and oil outflow modeling – Impacts from spills of persistent oils • Commercial vessel operations and practices • Spill risk from a shipowners Protection and Indemnity (P&I) Club perspective • Available and accessible U.S. Coast Guard data At its third meeting, held March 13–16, 2008, at the Beckman Center of the National Academies in Irvine, California, the com- mittee reviewed draft sections of this report, finalized the report structure, discussed its conclusions and recommendations, and continued drafting the text. In addition to these full committee meetings, a subgroup of the committee met during the last week of March, and members of the committee held numerous confer- ence calls. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The work of this committee was greatly facilitated by the thought- ful advice and background information provided by all of the presenters at its meetings, as well as other individuals with rel- evant technical expertise, stakeholder groups, and government and industry officials who were consulted during the study. The committee also gratefully acknowledges the contributions of time and information provided by the sponsor liaisons. The committee is especially indebted to liaisons Leslie Pearson, manager of the Prevention and Emergency Response Program in the Division of Spill Prevention and Response at the Alaska Department of Envi- ronmental Conservation; and CDR James Robertson of U.S. Coast Guard District 17 (Alaska region), who responded promptly and with a generous spirit to the committee’s numerous requests for information. In addition, the committee thanks the many industry, trade asso- ciation, and state and local government representatives and other individuals who provided input for this study: Sam Albanese, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); Dave

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x • Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands Aplin, World Wildlife Fund; Capt. Dave Artz, Alaska Marine Pilots; Jim Ayers, Oceana; Bill Benning, Marine Exchange of Alaska; Poppy Benson, Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, Fish and Wild- life Service (FWS); Catherine Berg, FWS; Rich Berkowitz, Transpor- tation Institute, Seattle; Vernon Byrd, Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, FWS; LCDR Xochitl Castañeda, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, D.C.; Paul Cojeen, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, D.C.; Bubba Cook, World Wildlife Fund; Capt. Mark DeVries, U.S. Coast Guard, Captain of the Port for Western Alaska; Dustin Dick- erson, local fisherman, Dutch Harbor; Lt. Ben Duarte, U.S. Coast Guard Marine Safety Detachment, Dutch Harbor; Cheryl Eldemar, Oceana, Juneau; Diana Evans, North Pacific Fishery Management Council, NOAA; Gary Folley, Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation; Tim Fowler, DNV Energy, United Kingdom; Capt. Pete Garay, Alaska Marine Pilots; John Gardenier (retired), Prag- matica Corp.; Turkan Gardenier, Pragmatica Corp.; Capt. Tom Gem- mell (U.S. Coast Guard, ret.), Marine Conservation Alliance; Martha Grabowski, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and LeMoyne College; Rodney Gregory, Business Transformation Agency, Reston; Scott Habberstad, Manager Regional Sales, Alaska, Alaska Airlines; Tim Hall, DNV Energy; Geoffrey Harben, Alaska Department of Envi- ronmental Conservation; Bruce Harland, Crowley Marine Services, Alaska; John R. (Jack) Harrold, George Washington University; Larry Hartig, Commissioner, Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation; Bob Heavilin, Alaska Chadux Corporation; Jon Heif- etz, NOAA; Kris Holderied, NOAA Kasitsna Bay Laboratory; Amy Holman, NOAA Alaska Regional Collaboration Team; Chris Jones, Maritime Operations Project Manager, Prince William Sound Regional Citizens’Advisory Council; Ian Jones, Memorial University of Newfoundland; ADM Robert Kramek (U.S. Coast Guard, ret.), American Bureau of Shipping; Christopher Krenz, Oceana; Kathy Kuletz, Migratory Bird Management, FWS; Tom Lakosh, Parker & Associates, Anchorage; LCDR James Larson, U.S. Coast Guard Headquarters; John LeClair, Alaska Chadux Corporation; LCDR Vivianne Louie, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, D.C.; Karl Lumbers, UK P&I Club, London; Dan Magone, Magone Marine Services, Inc.; Shirley Marquardt, Mayor, City of Unalaska; Molly McCammon, Alaska Ocean Observing System; Deborah French McCay, Applied Science Associates, Inc.; Jimmer MacDonald, Dutch Harbor local diver and commercial fisherman; Jason Merrick, Virginia Common-

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Preface • xi wealth University; Colin Moore, Herbert Engineering Corporation; David Moore, Minerals Management Service, Department of the Interior (DOI); Doug Mutter, Office of Environmental Policy and Compliance, DOI, Anchorage; CDR Christopher Myskowski, U.S. Coast Guard; Capt. Ed Page (U.S. Coast Guard, ret.), Marine Exchange of Alaska; Leslie Pearson, Alaska Department of Environ- mental Conservation; Dimitri Philemonof, Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association; Todd Ripley, Maritime Administration; CDR James Robertson, U.S. Coast Guard, District 17; Carolyn Rosner, North Pacific Research Board, Alaska Ocean Observing System; Bob Schoephoester, Alaska Chadux Corporation; Carven Scott, NOAA; CDR Sandra Selman, District Legal Officer, U.S. Coast Guard; Whit Sheard, Pacific Environment; Capt. Julio Soares, American President Lines; Mike Sollosi, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, D.C.; Rick Steiner, Shipping Safety Partnership; Barry Strauch, National Trans- portation Safety Board; Kent Sundseth, Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, FWS; Tyanc Thayer, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, D.C.; Kirsi Tikka, American Bureau of Shipping; Jeremy Weiss, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, D.C.; Carter Whalen, Alaska Marine Pilots; John Whitney, NOAA; and Bruce Wright, Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association. The committee also thanks the crews of the tug Gyrfalcon [one of the local rescue assets in Dutch Harbor that has responded to various emergencies in and around the harbor and whose crew has been trained with the Emergency Towing System (ETS)] and the tug James Dunlop (another local responder whose crew has been trained with the ETS and is on call around the clock for emer- gency response). Thanks are extended as well to employees of Magone Marine Services, a local company with more than 30 years of experience in diving, underwater demolition, and vessel recov- ery in the Aleutian Islands; employees of NC Machinery, diesel mechanics for fishing vessels, tugs, and ships with experience in safety maintenance, severe-weather shutdowns, and mechanical emergencies that arise at sea; and the members of the City Coun- cil of Unalaska, who took time from their busy schedules to share their knowledge and insights with the committee during its site visit to Dutch Harbor. This study was performed under the overall supervision of Stephen R. Godwin, TRB’s Director of Studies and Special Programs. The com- mittee gratefully acknowledges the work and support of Beverly Huey,

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xii • Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands who served as project director, and Peter Johnson, under whose guidance this study was initiated, both of whom provided invalu- able assistance to the committee during the information gathering, data analysis, report writing, and report review stages. The com- mittee expresses its admiration and appreciation of Peter Johnson’s continued commitment to the success of this effort, even after his retirement at the end of 2007. The committee also acknowledges the work and support of Suzanne Schneider, Associate Executive Director of TRB, who managed the review process; Rona Briere, who edited the report; Alisa Decatur, who prepared the manuscript; Jennifer J. Weeks, TRB Editorial Services Specialist, who format- ted and prepared the prepublication files for website posting; Senior Editor Norman Solomon, who provided editorial guidance; Juanita Green, Production Manager, who coordinated the design, typesetting, and printing; and Javy Awan, Director of Publications, under whose supervision the report was prepared for publication. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals cho- sen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accor- dance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this indepen- dent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as pos- sible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to pro- tect the integrity of the deliberative process. The committee thanks the following individuals for their review of this report: Gregory Baecher, University of Maryland, College Park; Duane Boniface, ABS Consulting, Arlington, Virginia; War- ner Chabot, Ocean Conservancy, San Francisco, California; John Lee, University of Iowa, Iowa City; Molly McCammon, Alaska Ocean Observing System, Anchorage; Jacqueline Michel, Research Planning, Inc., Columbia, South Carolina; Danny Reible, Univer- sity of Texas at Austin; and Steve Scalzo, Marine Resources Group, Seattle, Washington. Although these reviewers provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s findings and conclusions, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Marcia McNutt, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, Cali-

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Preface • xiii fornia. Appointed by NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review com- ments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final con- tent of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. —R. Keith Michel, Chair Committee on the Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: A Study to Design a Comprehensive Assessment

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Glossary Following are the definitions of a number of terms used in this report. Accident. An unintended event leading to loss of life, property, or damage to the environment. Examples of marine accidents include collisions, powered groundings, drift groundings, fire and explosion, and founderings (see the definitions below). Alaska Marine Highway (System). A ferry service operated by the State of Alaska along the state’s south-central coast, the east- ern Aleutian Islands, and the Inside Passage of Alaska and Brit- ish Columbia, Canada. The ferries (which can transport people, freight, and vehicles) also serve communities in southeastern Alaska that lack road access. Allision. The impact of a vessel with a fixed object other than the bot- tom of the body of water (e.g., a bridge, pier, or offshore platform). Area to be avoided (ATBA). An area with defined limits where either navigation is particularly hazardous or it is exceptionally important to avoid casualties. All ships or certain classes of ships may be instructed to avoid these areas. Automatic identification system (AIS). A communications medium that automatically provides vessel position and other data to other vessels and shore stations and facilitates the commu- nication of vessel traffic management and navigational safety data from designated shore stations to vessels. Beaufort scale. A method for estimating wind strengths with- out the use of instruments, developed in 1805 by Sir Francis xiv

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Glossary • xv Beaufort. It is still used for this purpose, as well as for combin- ing various components of weather (wind strength, sea state, and observable effects) into a unified picture. Force 6 winds range from 22 to 27 knots on the scale, with sea heights of 9.5 to 13 feet. At Force 7, winds range from 28 to 33 knots, with sea heights of 13.5 to 19 feet. Force 8 winds are 34 to 40 knots, with seas from 18 to 25 feet high. In Force 9 conditions, winds range from 41 to 47 knots and sea heights from 23 to 32 feet. At Force 11, winds are 56 to 63 knots and seas from 37 to 52 feet high. Bunkers. Fuel used for ship propulsion and power. Bunkers may be heavy residual fuel oils (referred to as HFO), or lighter refined oils, such as diesel oil (DO) and marine gas oil (MGO). Causality. The precursor event to an incident. Examples include failure to take appropriate precautions, inattention, and compo- nent failure. Collision. The impact of a vessel under way with another vessel under way. Consequence. The outcome of an event or accident. Deadweight (DWT). The difference between the displacement of a ship in water at a specific gravity of 1.025 at the assigned sum- mer load waterline and the lightship weight, generally measured in metric tons. The lightship is the displacement of a ship without cargo, consumables (e.g., fuel, fresh water), ballast water, passen- gers, or crew. Diurnal tides. One high tide and one low tide each tidal day. Drift grounding. The impact of a vessel with the ground when the vessel loses its ability to navigate (e.g., through loss of propulsion, steering, or towline separation) and is blown aground before it can get under way or is taken under tow. Foundering. Loss of a vessel from flooding, which may be due to insufficient stability or inadequate freeboard.

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xvi • Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands Frequency. The likelihood of an event or accident (number of events per unit time). Great circle route. The shortest distance between two places on the earth’s surface. The route follows a line described by the inter- section of the surface with an imaginary plane passing through the earth’s center. Gross ton (GT). A unit of measurement calculated in accordance with international conventions and national requirements; a func- tion of a vessel’s space within the hull and of enclosed spaces above deck. Groundfish. Any marine fish except halibut, smelt, herring, and salmon. Hazard. An agent that can harm life, property, or the environment. Incident. An event in which a vessel or its contents are put at risk. Examples are loss of propulsion, loss of steering, and navigational errors. Innocent passage. The right of vessel passage through a state’s ter- ritorial sea when not calling at a port in that state (up to 12 nauti- cal miles from the baseline). International Maritime Organization (IMO). The United Nations’ specialized agency responsible for improving maritime safety and preventing pollution from ships. International strait. A strait used for international navigation between one part of the high seas or an exclusive economic zone and another part of the high seas or exclusive economic zone. Invasive species. With respect to a particular ecosystem, any spe- cies (including its seeds, eggs, spores, or other biological material capable of propagating that species) that is not native to that eco- system and whose introduction does or is likely to cause harm to the economy, the environment, or human health.

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Glossary • xvii Long-range identification and tracking system (LRIT). A mari- time domain awareness initiative that will allow member states to receive position reports from vessels operating under their flag, vessels seeking entry to a port within their territory, or vessels operating in proximity to the state’s coastline. Nonpersistent oil. As used herein, No. 2 diesel oil and other light refined products, which tend to evaporate and disperse more read- ily than persistent oils (see below) when spilled. Oil. As used herein, all petroleum oils, such as crude oils, fuel and residual oils, and waste oils. Particularly sensitive sea area (PSSA). An area that needs special protection through action by the International Maritime Organization because of its significance for recognized ecological, socioeconomic, or scientific reasons and that may be vulnerable to damage by inter- national maritime activities. Persistent oil. Crude and residual oils, which tend to result in more widespread contamination when spilled and are more difficult to clean up than nonpersistent oils (see above). Powered grounding. The impact of a vessel with the ground or shoreline while the vessel is under power. Risk. The combination of the likelihood of an event and its con- sequences. Scenario. A sequence of events leading to an accident. Semidiurnal tides. Two high tides and two low tides of approxi- mately equal height per tidal day. Spill event. An accident resulting in oil or chemical outflow into the environment. Strait. A natural, constricted channel of water that connects two larger bodies of water.

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xviii • Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands Traffic separation scheme (TSS). A vessel-routing scheme separat- ing opposing streams of traffic by separation zones. Within interna- tional waters, TSSs are established by the International Maritime Organization. Transit passage. The right of passage through an international strait that is used for international navigation between one part of the high seas or an exclusive economic zone and another part of the high seas or an exclusive economic zone. Vessel traffic system (VTS). A vessel traffic management system whereby authorities monitor vessel movements within a water- way by radar surveillance and disseminate navigational informa- tion with regard to potential hazards.

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Contents Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Study Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Current Risk Reduction Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Study Objectives and Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Structure of the Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2 Fundamentals of Risk Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Overview of Risk Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Organization of Risk Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Risk Assessment Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Risk Assessment of Aleutian Shipping Operations . . . . . . . . 50 3 The Aleutian Islands: Framing the Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Local Assets and Their Vulnerability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Geology, Oceanography, and Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Supporting Maritime Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 4 Vessel Traffic, Accidents, and Spills in the Aleutians . . . . 73 Vessel Traffic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Movements of Oil, Chemicals, and Other Hazardous Goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Vessel Accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Spills of Oil and Other Hazardous Substances . . . . . . . . . . . 83 Regulatory Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

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5 Organization of the Aleutian Islands Risk Assessment . . . 96 Problem Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Assessment Organization and Management Structure . . . . 101 6 Technical Approach to the Aleutian Islands Risk Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 Phase A Preliminary Risk Assessment: Semiquantitative Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 Phase A Preliminary Risk Assessment: Qualitative Assessment and Prioritization of Risk Reduction Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Phase B Focused Risk Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Development and Reporting of Recommendations for Decision Makers on Risk Reduction Measures to Be Implemented . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 7 Conclusions and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 Final Thoughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Appendices A Potential Risk Reduction Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 B Selendang Ayu Plea Agreement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 C Expert Judgment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 D Human Reliability Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 E Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Bayesian Methods . . . . . . . . . 194 F Event Sequence Diagram Method and Risk Scenario Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 G Sample List of Salvage Incidents near Dutch Harbor . . . . . 203 H Summary Incident and Casualty Data from U.S. Coast Guard’s Marine Safety Management System, 1991–2000, and Marine Information Safety and Law Enforcement System, January 2000–March 2003 . . . . . . 205 I Resource Dependency and Community Vulnerability . . . . 216 Study Committee Biographical Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . 221