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Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: Designing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment Study Committee Biographical Information R. Keith Michel, Chair, is former President and current Board Chairman of Herbert Engineering Corporation. In more than 25 years with the company, he has worked on design, specification development, and contract negotiations for containerships, bulk carriers, and tankers. Mr. Michel has served on numerous industry advisory groups developing guidelines for alternative tanker designs, including groups advising the International Maritime Organization and the U.S. Coast Guard. His work has included the development of methodology, vessel models, and oil outflow analyses. He was a project engineer for the U.S. Coast Guard report on oil outflow analysis for double-hull and hybrid tanker arrangements, which was part of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s technical report to Congress on the Oil Pollution Act of 1990. He has also worked on the development of salvage software used by the U.S. and Canadian Coast Guards, the U.S. Navy, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Maritime Administration, the American Bureau of Shipping, Lloyd’s, and numerous oil and shipping companies. Mr. Michel was Chair of the Marine Board of the National Research Council (NRC) from 2002 through 2004 and has served on several NRC committees. He holds a BS in naval architecture and marine engineering from the Webb Institute of Naval Architecture.
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Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: Designing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment Dennis C. Bley is President of Buttonwood Consulting, Inc. He has more than 30 years of experience in nuclear and electrical engineering, reliability and availability analysis, data analysis, plant and human modeling for risk assessment, expert elicitation, treatment of uncertainty, decision analysis, expert systems, and technical management. He conducts research in human reliability analysis, probabilistic risk assessment of technological systems, modeling of uncertainties in all areas of risk analysis and risk management, extension of applications to new industries, and enhancement of technical risk communication. Dr. Bley has a PhD in nuclear engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and a BSEE from the University of Cincinnati. He is recognized for developing probabilistic risk assessments and applying them to a wide range of engineered facilities, and he has lectured at universities, businesses, and government organizations on all aspects of risk assessment. He has also authored many papers and reports on risk assessment techniques and methods. He has served on NRC and government committees evaluating such diverse topics as railroad safety, nuclear energy systems, disposal of chemical weapons in the Army’s stockpile, airport operations, the space shuttle, and chemical facilities. Thomas M. Leschine is Director of the University of Washington School of Marine Affairs and specializes in environmental policy, with an emphasis on the use of scientific and technical information in environmental decision making. His research interests include coastal ecosystem and marine pollution management; maritime safety, including oil spill prevention and response; and the long-term management of hazards associated with radioactive and other long-lived wastes. He chaired the NRC Committee on Remediation of Buried and Tank Wastes, whose work culminated in the publication of Long-Term Institutional Management of U.S. Department of Energy Legacy Waste Sites (2000), a comprehensive examination of the Department of Energy’s planning for long-term stewardship at defense nuclear sites. That work led to publication of the edited volume Long-Term Management of Contaminated Sites (2007) in the Elsevier JAI Academic Series Research in Social Problems and Public Policy. Dr. Leschine served previously as a member of the Marine Board’s Committee on Risk Assessment and Management of Marine Systems, which produced the Review of the Prince William Sound, Alaska, Risk Assessment Study (1998). He received his PhD in mathematics
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Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: Designing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment from the University of Pittsburgh, where he specialized in mathematical logic. He made the transition to a career in marine affairs through postdoctoral research and staff appointments at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, and briefly at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. Henry S. Marcus is Professor of Marine Systems in the Ocean Engineering Department at MIT, where he has held teaching and research positions for more than 35 years. He has also been a marine transportation consultant to many government agencies and various maritime industries. Dr. Marcus earned a BS in naval architecture from Webb Institute, two MS degrees from MIT (in naval architecture and shipping management), and a DBA from Harvard Business School. He was a member of the National Academies’ Marine Board in the 1990s, has served on several Marine Board committees, and chaired a Marine Board Committee on Tank Vessel Design that reviewed ship design approaches to oil spill prevention. He has served as a member of the Federal Transportation Advisory Group and as a member of the Marine Transportation Systems National Advisory Council. He has authored or coauthored six books and numerous articles on various aspects of the marine industry. His current research interests include ocean transportation systems and international logistics, maritime transportation policy, and Arctic marine transportation. He currently directs the Ocean Systems Management Program in MIT’s Center for Ocean Engineering in the Department of Mechanical Engineering. Denise McCafferty is Manager of the Risk and Human Factors Department for the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS). She is responsible for risk and human factors tools and techniques used by ABS surveyors, engineers, and clients. For more than 25 years, she has provided research and consulting services to a variety of domestic and international clients in the following industries: marine; oil and gas, both offshore and onshore; refining; chemical; pipeline; nuclear; and other process control. Her areas of expertise include risk assessment and the integration of human factors and human reliability into hazards analysis and quantitative risk assessment studies. In recent years, her experience has concentrated on risk factors relating to the design, management, and operation of marine vessels, marine
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Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: Designing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment terminals, and offshore installations. Ms. McCafferty has published numerous articles on topics relating to industrial human factors. She has a BA in psychology and an MA in experimental psychology from the University of West Florida. While at ABS, she has managed the development of criteria and guidance to assist clients in effectively addressing risk and the human element in design. These materials have been published in the form of ABS Guides and Guidance Notes. Ms. McCafferty has also been involved with numerous projects aimed at meeting the intent of the International Safety Management Code and with the development of an incident investigation methodology and a software product that enhance the incident investigation process. Ali Mosleh, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Maryland, conducts research in various risk assessment fields, such as expert quantitative opinion, reliability growth modeling, probabilistic reliability physics, common-cause failure analysis, dynamic accident simulation, and dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. He also conducts human reliability analyses and develops methodologies for security risk management and space systems risk analysis. He has performed risk and safety assessments, reliability analyses, and decision analyses for the nuclear, chemical, and aerospace industries. He is the editor of four books and is author or coauthor of four sourcebooks and guidebooks and more than 140 papers in technical journals and conferences. Professor Mosleh has been the organizer or chairman of numerous international conferences and technical sessions. He chairs the Engineering Division of the International Society for Risk Analysis and is a Board Member of the International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management. He is a member of the Board of Editors for the Journal of Reliability Engineering and System Safety. He is a member and Program Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Human Factors Division, American Nuclear Society, as well as a member of the Risk Analysis Methodology Committee, International Society for Risk Analysis. He serves as Co-Director of the Center for Technology Risk Studies at Clark School of Engineering, University of Maryland. He is an expert consultant to national and international organizations on risk and reliability issues. He holds a PhD in nuclear science and engineering from the University of California, Los Angeles.
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Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: Designing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment Robert C. North (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard, Ret.) is President of North Star Maritime, Inc., specializing in consulting for the marine industry in merchant marine safety, port safety and security, waterways management, merchant marine personnel qualifications and training, and marine environmental protection regulatory issues. He served for 34 years as a commissioned officer in the U.S. Coast Guard, involved in all aspects of domestic and international programs in these areas. He led the effort involving 14 federal agencies and public- and private-sector stakeholders to develop the concept of the Marine Transportation System, a project aimed at ensuring that U.S. ports, waterways, and intermodal connections are able to support anticipated increased levels of maritime trade in the coming years in a safe, secure, and environmentally sound manner. Admiral North directed the creation of “Qualship 21,” a unique safety and environmental protection quality incentives program for foreign vessels calling in U.S. ports. He also managed development of the Marine Information for Safety and Law Enforcement project to consolidate U.S. Coast Guard commercial vessel databases for merchant marine safety and maritime law enforcement programs. Admiral North graduated from the State University of New York Maritime College with a degree in marine engineering and has participated in postgraduate studies at the U.S. Army War College and the National Defense University. Margaret Williams is Director of the World Wildlife Fund’s (WWF’s) Bering Sea Ecoregion Program and Russia Projects, which entails leading a team of experts in climate change, wildlife biology, fisheries, oil and shipping, and communications to implement an international conservation strategy for the Bering Sea. She chaired WWF’s International Arctic Program for 2 years and continues to work on Arctic issues. Ms. Williams has focused much of her effort on Russian conservation issues for the past 13 years. From 1993 to 1995 she lived in eastern Siberia, northwestern Karelia, and Moscow, and she is fluent in Russian. Ms. Williams founded and still edits Russian Conservation News, a quarterly journal on biodiversity conservation in Eurasia. Before joining WWF in 1997, she worked as a consultant to the World Bank on biodiversity projects in Russia and Central Asia. She graduated from Smith College and received a master’s degree from the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies.
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