UNDERSTANDING CRIME TRENDS

WORKSHOP REPORT

Committee on Understanding Crime Trends

Arthur S. Goldberger and Richard Rosenfeld, Editors

Committee on Law and Justice

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
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Committee on Understanding Crime Trends Arthur S. Goldberger and Richard Rosenfeld, Editors Committee on Law and Justice Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee respon- sible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This project was supported by Contract Grant No. 2001-MU-MU-0007 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-12586-4 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-12586-3 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Second printing with corrections. Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2008). Understanding Crime Trends: Workshop Report. Committee on Understanding Crime Trends, Arthur S. Goldberger and Richard Rosenfeld, Editors. Committee on Law and Justice, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general wel- fare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineer- ing programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is presi- dent of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON UNDERSTANDING CRIME TRENDS RICHARD ROSENFELD (Cochair), Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis ARTHUR S. GOLDBERGER (Cochair), Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison ALFRED BLUMSTEIN, John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University PHILLIP J. COOK, Stanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University STEVEN N. DURLAUF, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison KAREN HEIMER, Department of Sociology and Public Policy Center, University of Iowa JANET L. LAURITSEN, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis MICHAEL G. MAXFIELD, School of Criminal Justice, Rutgers University CAROL PETRIE, Study Director LINDA DePUGH, Administratie Assistant 

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COMMITTEE ON LAW AND JUSTICE JAMES Q. WILSON (Chair), Department of Political Science, Pepperdine University DAVID H. BAYLEY, School of Criminal Justice, State University of New York, Albany RICHARD J. BONNIE, Institute of Law, Psychiatry and Public Policy, University of Virginia PHILIP J. COOK, Stanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University MARTHA CRENSHAW, Department of Government, Wesleyan University ROBERT D. CRUTCHFIELD, Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle JOHN DILULIO, JR., Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle STEVEN N. DURLAUF, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison JOHN A. FEREJOHN, Hoover Institution, Stanford University ARTHUR S. GOLDBERGER, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison BRUCE HOFFMAN, RAND Corporation, Arlington, Virginia ROBERT L. JOHNSON, Department of Pediatrics, New Jersey Medical School, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey JOHN H. LAUB, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland TRACEY L. MEARES, Center for Studies in Criminal Justice, School of Law, University of Chicago TERRIE E. MOFFITT, SGDP Research Center, Institute of Psychiatry, University of London MARK H. MOORE, Hauser Center for Nonprofit Organizations, Cambridge, Massachusetts RUTH D. PETERSON, Department of Sociology, Criminal Justice Research Center, Ohio State University RICHARD ROSENFELD, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis ROBERT J. SAMPSON, Department of Sociology, Harvard University JEREMY TRAVIS, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York CHRISTY A. VISHER, Justice Policy Center, Urban Institute, Washington, DC i

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CONTRIBUTORS ERIC P. BAUMER, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis ALFRED BLUMSTEIN, John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University STEVEN N. DURLAUF, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison JEFFREY FAGAN, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University ARTHUR S. GOLDBERGER, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison KAREN HEIMER, Department of Sociology and Public Policy Center, University of Iowa JANET L. LAURITSEN, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis SALVADOR NAVARRO, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison JOHN V. PEPPER, Department of Economics, University of Virginia DAVID A. RIVERS, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison RICHARD ROSENFELD, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis ii

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Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with proce- dures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of the report: Julie Horney, School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany, State University of New York; Gary LaFree, National Center for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, Department of Criminology/ Democracy Collaborative, University of Maryland; James P. Lynch, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, New York, NY; Steven Raphael, Richard and Rhonda Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley; Ronald B. (Ralph) Taylor, Department of Criminal Justice, Temple University; and Wesley G. Skogan, Political Science and the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Darnell F. Hawkins, African American Studies, Sociology, and Criminal Justice, University of Illinois. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible ix

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x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS for making certain that an independent examination of this report was car- ried out it in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institutions.

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Preface The United States has experienced its lowest levels of violent crime in a generation and no longer leads the developed world in all forms of violent and property crime. However, the factors underlying the large fluctuations in violent crime during the past two decades remain poorly understood. The Federal Bureau of Investigation recently reported that the nation’s violent crime rate dropped slightly in 2007 from its 2006 levels, especially in medium-sized cities. Yet as of fall 2008, consumer confidence is in steep decline, which research has shown to be associated with increases in rob- bery and property crime. Our ability to forecast whether crime will go up or down in 2009 and beyond, however, remains rudimentary. This volume of papers resulted from a 2007 workshop to examine crime trends. It addresses some key substantive and methodological issues underlying what is currently known about crime trends and discusses ways to improve understanding of both year-to-year and long-term change in crime trends. The committee thanks, first, the National Institute of Justice of the U.S. Department of Justice, for its ongoing support of the work of the Committee on Law and Justice, including the workshop on crime trends. The committee also thanks the National Consortium for Violence Research at Carnegie Mellon University for contributing resources to support the workshop. This volume would not have been possible without the participation of many senior scholars and practitioners from the criminal justice field. The committee thanks the following people for their invaluable contributions to the workshop and this collection of papers: David Bayley, University xi

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xii PREFACE of Albany (SUNY); Allen Beck, Bureau of Justice Statistics; Richard A. Berk, University of Pennsylvania; Richard J. Bonnie, University of Virginia; Henry Brownstein, National Opinion Research Center; Patrick Campbell, Bureau of Justice Statistics; Patrick Clark, National Institute of Justice; Robert D. Crutchfield, University of Washington; Linda DePugh, National Research Council; Terry Dunworth, The Urban Institute; Rachel King, House Committee on the Judiciary; John Laub, University of Maryland; Akiva Liberman, National Institute on Drug Abuse; Tracey Meares, Yale University Law School; Angela Moore, National Institute of Justice; Robert S. Mueller III, Federal Bureau of Investigation; Carol Petrie, National Research Council; Michael Rand, Bureau of Justice Statistics; Winnie Reed, National Institute of Justice; Peter Reuter, University of Maryland; Jeffrey Sedgwick, Office of Justice Programs, Department of Justice; Jeremy Travis, John Jay College of Criminal Justice; Christy Visher, University of Delaware; Neil Weiner, Vera Institute; and James Q. Wilson, Pepperdine University. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with proce- dures approved by the Report Review committee of the National Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of the report: Julie Horney, School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany, State University of New York; Gary LaFree, National Center for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, Department of Criminology/ Democracy Collaborative, University of Maryland; James P. Lynch, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, New York, NY; Steven Raphael, Richard and Rhonda Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley; Wesley G. Skogan, Political Science and the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University; and Ronald B. (Ralph) Taylor, Depart- ment of Criminal Justice, Temple University. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Darnell F. Hawkins, African American Studies, Sociology, and Criminal Justice, University of Illinois (Emeritus). Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the

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xiii PREFACE final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institutions. We hope that the volume can contribute to scientific and policy discus- sion about what is needed to improve crime trend data and methods of analysis so that future policy decisions to address crime problems will have a stronger scientific foundation. Richard Rosenfeld and Arthur S. Goldberger, Cochairs Committee on Understanding Crime Trends

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Contents 1 Introduction 1 Richard Rosenfeld and Arthur S. Goldberger 2 Factors Contributing to U.S. Crime Trends 13 Alfred Blumstein and Richard Rosenfeld 3 Gender and Violence in the United States: Trends in Offending and Victimization 45 Karen Heimer and Janet L. Lauritsen 4 Crime and Neighborhood Change 81 Jeffrey Fagan 5 An Empirical Assessment of the Contemporary Crime Trends Puzzle: A Modest Step Toward a More Comprehensive Research Agenda 127 Eric P. Baumer 6 Forecasting Crime: A City-Level Analysis 177 John V. Pepper 7 On the Use of Aggregate Crime Regressions in Policy Evaluation 211 Steen N. Durlauf, Salador Naarro, and Daid A. Riers x

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