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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
Appendix C
Russia’s Counterterrorism Strategy
Valentin A. Sobolev, Deputy Secretary, Security Council of the Russian Federation
MAIN THREATS TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Regional crises and conflicts
Terrorism and various forms of political and religious extremism
Separatism
Illegal drug trade
Environmental and technogenic disasters
Threats of the spread of weapons of mass destruction
Organized crime
CHARACTERISTICS OF TERRORISM IN 2005
Increased rates of growth in the number of terrorist acts (according to U.S. data, more than 10,000 terrorist acts have been committed worldwide in the past three decades)
Rise in the level of organization (during the twentieth century, terrorism developed from a lone terrorist model to transnational terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda)
Improved material-technical and financial support (from the dagger and pistol to colossal bombings and the possible use of weapons of mass
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
destruction, from meager financial resources to funding streams totaling in the millions)
Increased scope of terrorist activity (from single locations of crimes to the seizure of entire cities, countries, and regions)
Increased severity of consequences and number of casualties
Expanded social base of terrorism
Increased number of trained fighters equipped at the highest technical level
CHARACTERISTICS OF MODERN TERRORISM IN 2007
Expanded geography and internationalization: More than 50 countries have experienced the consequences of terrorist acts, including Iraq, India, Indonesia, Colombia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Israel, Great Britain, and Egypt.
Increased danger to society: The number of acts carried out by suicide attackers (shahids) has increased fivefold in the past 3 years. In 2006 alone, more than 15,000 terrorist acts were carried out worldwide, killing or injuring more than 90,000 people.
Expanded social base and involvement of significant masses of the population in extremist activities: This leads to the creation of a broader infrastructure for terrorist organizations and brings the ethnonational factor to bear, which in turn creates a significant degree of uncertainty about potential sources of the terrorist threat and forms and means of operation by terrorists.
Rise in linkages between terrorism and the ethnoreligious factor: Primarily this refers to the aim of certain branches of Islam to create individuals who are psychologically prepared to commit violent acts “in the name of Allah” to achieve political goals, such as overthrowing unfavorable secular regimes and establishing a government according to Islamic doctrines.
Increased level of organization and unification of terrorist organizations both within individual countries and on an international level: Terrorists are creating a system of control with unified leading entities that plan their actions. Terrorist groups that are similar in their ideological, political, nationalistic, religious, and separatist positions are holding councils and meetings, bringing together the leaders of the largest groups.
Formation of three threatening hotbeds for the spread of terrorism in the world: These regions where armed conflicts are prevalent include “Palestine-Israel,” Iraq, and Afghanistan.
Trend toward the expansion by jihadists of their supply, funding, and personnel bases beyond the bounds of the Muslim world: Latin America is gradually becoming a promising source from which the Islamic fighters may augment their ranks. This trend will continue, according to the predictions of Western experts in 2007. In addition to the Middle East and Western Europe, we
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
FIGURE C-1 International terrorism.
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
should expect increased activity by jihadists in Bosnia, Kosovo, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Australia, the Philippines, the Fergana Valley, and the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China.
Continuing material and financial support for terrorism: The main source of financing for terrorism today comes from control of the drug trade, racketeering, prostitution, arms trade, contraband, gambling, and so forth.
Use of modern technologies by terrorists: Terrorists are striving to gain access to weapons of mass destruction and their components. We must organize efforts to counter nuclear terrorism, cyberterrorism, ecoterrorism, agroterrorism, and radiological terrorism.
Increased ties between terrorism and the drug trade: Terrorism is increasingly active in the so-called instability belt, which extends from the Philippines and Indonesia through the Indian subcontinent, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Middle East up to the Serbian border of Kosovo. The flow of drugs from Afghanistan has become global in nature. It may be stated that the efforts of the international community and the Afghan authorities to counter the production and illegal trade of narcotics are still not having the necessary effect.
Success in the struggle against terrorism is unimaginable without a clear and universally accepted international strategy. Governmental and social structures, official networks, and the media must join forces. The foundation for such an endeavor was laid by Resolution 1373 and other decisions by the United Nations Security Council, but additional efforts are currently needed.
The main elements of Russia’s strategy for international cooperation to counter international terrorism and extremism include the following:
The United Nations
The Group of Eight (G8)
Expanded contacts and cooperation on antiterrorism with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), within the framework of the Russia-NATO Council
Enhanced regional antiterrorist cooperation with nearby countries, primarily through the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
Establishment of cooperation on countering new challenges and threats with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Asian Regional Forum
Figure C-1 illustrates the new transnational ideology and practice of asymmetric violent resolution of contradictions on a global level.
