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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
COUNTERING TERRORISM
Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems
Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
Glenn E. Schweitzer, Rapporteur
Committee on Counterterrorism Challenges for Russia and the United States
Office for Central Europe and Eurasia Development, Security, and Cooperation
Policy and Global Affairs
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
In cooperation with the Russian Academy of Sciences
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Grant No. B 7075.R03 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Carnegie Corporation of New York. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-12707-3
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-12707-6
A limited number of copies are available from the Office for Central Europe and Eurasia, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001; (202) 334-2376.
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL COMMITTEE ON COUNTERTERRORISM CHALLENGES FOR RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES
Siegfried S. Hecker, Director Emeritus,
Los Alamos National Laboratory;
Co-Director and Professor,
Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University,
Chair
Wm. A. Wulf, President,
National Academy of Engineering,
Ex-officio
Robert McC. Adams, Adjunct Professor,
University of California at San Diego
John F. Ahearne, Director,
Ethics Program, Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society
Lewis M. Branscomb, Aetna Professor of Public Policy and Corporate Management, Emeritus,
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
George Bugliarello, President Emeritus and University Professor,
Polytechnic University
Anita K. Jones, Lawrence R. Quarles Professor of Engineering and Applied Science,
University of Virginia
Michael Moodie, Independent Consultant and former President,
Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute
Russ Zajtchuk, President,
Chicago Hospitals International
Staff
Glenn E. Schweitzer, Program Director,
National Research Council
Kelly Robbins, Senior Program Officer,
National Research Council
A. Chelsea Sharber, Senior Program Associate,
National Research Council
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES STANDING COMMITTEE ON COUNTERTERRORISM
Academician Yevgeny Velikhov, Director,
Russian Research Center—Kurchatov Institute,
Chair
RAS Corresponding Member Leonid Bolshov, Director,
Russian Academy of Sciences Nuclear Safety Institute
Academician Nikolay Laverov, Vice President,
Russian Academy of Sciences
Academician Nikolay Platé, Vice President,
Russian Academy of Sciences (deceased)
Academician Aleksander Spirin, Director,
Russian Academy of Sciences Protein Institute
Academician Konstantin V. Frolov, Director,
Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Machine Science (deceased)
RAS Corresponding Member Valery Tishkov, Director,
Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology
Mr. Gennady Kovalenko,
Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Renat S. Akchurin, Chief of the Cardiovascular Surgery Department,
Cardiology Research Center
Staff
Yury K. Shiyan, Chief Expert, Head of the Desk on Cooperation with North and Latin American Countries,
Foreign Relations Department
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
Preface
This report presents the proceedings of the fourth U.S.-Russian interacademy workshop on the general theme of countering terrorism, which was held in Moscow in March 2007. The first report was published by the National Academy Press (now the National Academies Press) in 2002 under the title High Impact Terrorism: Proceedings of a Russian-American Workshop. The second report was published in 2004 under the title Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses: U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings. The third report was published in 2006 under the title Countering Urban Terrorism in Russia and the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. The present report continues to explore topics related to urban terrorism but with a new emphasis on potential attacks involving biological agents, transportation networks, and energy systems. The Carnegie Corporation of New York has generously supported all four of the workshops and the preparation of the reports.
Two other recent projects carried out as cooperative efforts of the National Academies and the Russian Academy of Sciences also deserve mention. They were closely linked to the activities reflected in the reports of the four workshops noted above. These two projects resulted in consensus reports also published by the National Academies Press entitled Biological Science and Biotechnology in Russia: Controlling Diseases and Enhancing Security, 2006, and U.S.-Russian Collaboration in Combating Radiological Terrorism, 2007.
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
This report is organized into several sections. First, summary reports of discussions at meetings of three interacademy working groups that were convened just before the workshop are presented. These working groups addressed bioterrorism, transportation vulnerabilities, and energy system vulnerabilities. The agendas for the working groups and plenary sessions are included in Appendix A, along with a list of participants. Second, 18 papers that provided the basis for presentations during the working group discussions and workshop plenary sessions are set forth in their entirety. Appendix B identifies some important recent books and reports published in Russia that are highly relevant to the topics that were discussed. Finally, the presentation by a senior Russian government official, included in Appendix C, provides important perspectives that were taken into account during the discussions. We hope that the discussions at the workshop will be of assistance to the two governments as they continue to develop the governmental frameworks for combating urban terrorism and approaches to international collaboration in this field.
The amount of information that was exchanged during the meetings of the working groups, the plenary session of the workshop, and the related visits to organizations and facilities in the Moscow and St. Petersburg areas was extensive. The sampling of information presented in this report underscores the value of international exchanges in the rapidly expanding field of counterterrorism. Much of the information is of direct relevance in efforts to enhance national security awareness in both countries, and indeed throughout the international community.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This publication was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The Russian Academy of Sciences, in cooperation with other Russian organizations, did an excellent job in arranging all aspects of the visit to Russia. We express our sincere appreciation to the Carnegie Corporation and to all of the Russian organizations that were involved for their assistance.
The statements made and views expressed in this report are solely the responsibility of the authors and the rapporteur. They do not necessarily represent the positions of the planning committees, the Carnegie Corporation, the National Academies, the Russian Academy of Sciences, or other organizations where the authors are employed.
This volume has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for quality. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of selected papers and summary material: Edward Badolato, Integrated Infrastructure Analytics, Inc.; Kavita Berger, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Mortimer Downey, PB Consult, Inc; Robert Gallamore, Northwestern University; Sanjay Jain, The George Washington University; Brian Lopez, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Neil Smelser, University of California, Berkeley; Amy Smithson, Monterey Institute of International Studies; Theofanis Theofanous, University of California, Santa Barbara; Alvin Trivelpiece, Retired, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; and Wm. A. Wulf, University of Virginia.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the individual papers. Responsibility for the final content of the volume rests with the individual authors and the rapporteur.
Special appreciation is extended to Kelly Robbins for her translation of many of the Russian language papers into English and for her assistance in editing this report. Also, we appreciate the work of Jan Dee Summers in editing this volume.
Siegfried S. Hecker
Chair, Committee on Counterterrorism Challenges for Russia and the United States of the National Research Council
Glenn E. Schweitzer
Rapporteur
Director, Office for Central Europe and Eurasia
National Research Council
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
Contents
Summaries
1
U.S.-Russian Working Group on Bioterrorism
Claire Cornelius (Rapporteur)
3
2
U.S.-Russian Working Group on Transportation System Vulnerabilities
Cynthia Getner (Rapporteur)
7
3
U.S.-Russian Working Group on Energy System Vulnerabilities
A. Chelsea Sharber (Rapporteur)
14
Selected Papers
Overview
4
Tendencies in Global Terrorism
Raphael F. Perl
25
5
Use of Predictive Modeling Packages for Effective Emergency Management
Nikolai P. Kopylov and Irek R. Khasanov
32
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6
Organizational Measures and Decision Support Systems for Preventing and Responding to Terrorist Acts at Potentially Hazardous Facilities, on Transportation Systems, and in Locations Where Large Numbers of People Congregate
A. Yu. Kudrin, A. I. Zaporozhets, and S. A. Kachanov
46
7
Characteristics of Technological Terrorism Scenarios and Impact Factors
Nikolai A. Makhutov, Vitaly P. Petrov, and Dmitry O. Reznikov
53
8
Activities of the Russian Federal Medical-Biological Agency Related to Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Security
Vladimir V. Romanov
70
Bioterrorism
9
Disease Surveillance and International Biosecurity
David R. Franz
73
10
Emerging Viral Infections in the Asian Part of Russia
Sergei V. Netesov and Natalya A. Markovich
79
Transportation Vulnerabilities
11
A Note on the Interfacial Vulnerabilities of Transportation Systems
George Bugliarello
95
12
Transportation Planning for Evacuations
John C. Falcocchio
104
13
International and National Priorities in Combating Terrorism in the Transportation Sector
Vladimir N. Lopatin
116
Energy System Vulnerabilities
14
Managing the Radius of Risk
Drew F. Lieb
124
15
The Problem of Oil and Natural Gas Pipeline Security
Sergei G. Serebryakov
150
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Countering Terrorism: Biological Agents, Transportation Networks, and Energy Systems - Summary of a U.S.-Russian Workshop
Other Counterterrorism Topics
16
U.S.-Russian Collaboration in Combating Radiological Terrorism
John F. Ahearne
160
17
IAEA Activities in Preventing Radiological and Nuclear Terrorism
Miroslav Gregoric
173
18
Electromagnetic Terrorism: Threat to the Security of the State Infrastructure
Vladimir Ye. Fortov and Yury V. Parfyonov
186
19
The Phenomenon of Suicide Bombings in Israel: Lessons Learned
Mordecai Z. Dzikansky
189
20
Raman Spectroscopic Detection of Chemical, Biological, and Explosive Agents
Russ Zajtchuk and Gary R. Gilbert
200
21
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate
John F. O’Neil
208
Appendixes
A
Agenda
217
B
Recent Russian and International Publications of Interest
224
C
Russia’s Counterterrorism Strategy
Valentin A. Sobolev
226
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