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Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
Committee on Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
Board on Life Sciences
Division on Earth and Life Studies
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing
Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of
the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the
Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were
chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by contract/grant no. 08HQGR0005 between the National
Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Geological Survey. The content of this publication
does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Geological Survey, nor does
the mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by
the U.S. Government.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-12710-3
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-12710-6
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500
Fifth Street, NW, Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-
3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society
of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the
furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the
authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate
that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr.
Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of
the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It
is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the
National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government.
The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at
meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior
achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of
Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the
examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional
charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify
issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of
the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of
Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the
Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government.
Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council
has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and
the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the
public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered
jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr.
Charles M. Vest are the chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research
Council.
www.national-academies.org
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COMMITTEE ON ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Chair, Carnegie Institution for Science, Washington, DC
DONALD F. BOESCH, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science,
Cambridge
F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN III, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
PETER H. GLEICK, Pacific Institute, Oakland, CA
ANTHONY C. JANETOS, University of Maryland, College Park
JANE LUBCHENCO, Oregon State University, Corvallis
JONATHAN T. OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tuscon
CAMILLE PARMESAN, University of Texas, Austin
TERRY L. ROOT, Stanford University, CA
STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana, Missoula
STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Stanford University, CA
STAFF
ANN REID, Study Director
FRANCES E. SHARPLES, Director, Board on Life Sciences
ANNE JURKOWSKI, Communications Officer
AMANDA CLINE, Senior Program Assistant
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BOARD ON LIFE SCIENCES
KEITH YAMAMOTO, Chair, University of California, San Francisco
ANN M. ARVIN, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA
RUTH BERKELMAN, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
DEBORAH BLUM, University of Wisconsin, Madison
VICKI CHANDLER, University of Arizona, Tucson
JEFFREY L. DANGL, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
PAUL R. EHRLICH, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
MARK D. FITZSIMMONS, John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Chicago, IL
JO HANDELSMAN, University of Wisconsin, Madison
KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
JONATHAN D. MORENO, University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia
RANDALL MURCH, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Alexandria
MURIEL E. POSTON, Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, NY
JAMES REICHMAN, University of California, Santa Barbara
BRUCE W. STILLMAN, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, Cold Spring Harbor, NY
MARC T. TESSIER-LAVIGNE, Genentech Inc., South San Francisco, CA
JAMES TIEDJE, Michigan State University, East Lansing
CYNTHIA WOLBERGER, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
TERRY L. YATES, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
STAFF
FRANCES E. SHARPLES, Board Director
JO HUSBANDS, Senior Project Director
ADAM P. FAGEN, Senior Program Officer
ANN H. REID, Senior Program Officer
MARILEE K. SHELTON-DAVENPORT, Senior Program Officer
ANNA FARRAR, Financial Associate
REBECCA WALTER, Senior Program Assistant
AMANDA CLINE, Senior Program Assistant
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Preface
The Committee on the Ecological Impacts of Climate Change was given an unusual task;
therefore it is appropriate to describe how the committee was formed, how it interpreted its task,
and the approach it took to generate this report, so that reviewers and readers are aware of what
the report has been designed to achieve. The full statement of task can be found in Appendix A.
The National Research Council (NRC) was approached by the U.S. Geological Survey
with a request to produce a scientifically accurate brochure for the general public describing the
ecological effects of climate change. Generally, when produced by the NRC, the content of such
brochures is derived from previously published NRC consensus reports. In this case, while the
NRC has published widely on climate change, the ecological impacts have not been the subject
of any recent consensus reports. However, a number of major international consensus reports on
climate change, including the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC),1 the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment,2 several products from the U.S.
Climate Change Science Program,3 and the United Nations Foundation4 provide ample raw
material for such a brochure. Accordingly, the NRC convened a committee of experts to review
the published literature and provide a brief report laying out an overview of the ecological
impacts of climate change and a series of examples of impacts of different kinds. The contents of
1
IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds.R. K. Pachauri and A. Reisinger.
Geneva: IPCC, 2007.
2
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Washington, D.C.: Island
Press, 2005.
3
Backlund, P., A. Janetos, D. Schimel, J. Hatfield, K. Boote, P. Fay, L. Hahn, C. Izaurralde, B. A. Kimball, T.
Mader, J. Morgan, D. Ort, W. Polley, A. Thomson, D. Wolfe, M. G. Ryan, S. R. Archer, R. Birdsey, C. Dahm, L.
Heath, J. Hicke, D. Hollinger, T. Huxman, G. Okin, R. Oren, J. Randerson, W. Schlesinger, D. Lettenmaier, D.
Major, L. Poff, S. Running, L. Hansen, D. Inouye, B. P. Kelly, L. Meyerson, B. Peterson, R. Shaw. The effects of
climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States. A Report by
the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington D.C.:
U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2008.
4
Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change (Rosina M. Bierbaum, John P. Holdren, Michael C. MacCracken,
Richard H. Moss, and Peter H. Raven, eds.). Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and
Managing the Unavoidable. Report prepared for the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development.
Research Triangle Park, N.C., and Washington, D.C.: Sigma Xi and the United Nations Foundation, April 2007.
vii
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this report will be used by the NRC’s Division on Earth and Life Studies communications office
to design a fully illustrated booklet for distribution to the public.
Members of the committee were chosen to represent knowledge of a wide range of
different geographic areas (for example, the arctic or temperate latitudes), and different kinds of
organisms and ecosystems. Crucially, in addition to relevant expertise, the committee members
were chosen because of their deep familiarity with the international activities that allowed
scientists to develop the scientific consensuses on which this report is based and for their
experience and skill in conveying complex scientific information to the general public. All
eleven committee members served as lead authors on one or more recent scientific assessments
on global change and many have been recipients of awards and prizes for exceptional
achievement in science communication. The roster of committee members and their biographies
are in Appendix B.
The committee met several times by conference call to discuss which examples of the
ecological impacts of climate change to provide and how the information should be presented.
Because the ultimate audience will be the general public, the committee decided that the report
would avoid using jargon and use straightforward examples to help convey complex issues, all
while not sacrificing accuracy. At the same time, numerous references and suggestions for
further reading are provided for those wishing more detail.
The list of possible examples of ecological impacts of climate change is very long, and
only a few can be included in so brief a document. Instead, an effort was made to choose
examples from a wide range of ecosystems and of several different kinds of impacts, ranging
from range shifts, to seasonal timing mismatches, to indirect consequences of primary impacts.
While trying to illustrate the broad range of impacts, the committee also highlighted a few
fundamental messages: 1. Climate change and ecosystems are intricately connected and impacts
on one will often feed back to affect the other; 2. Ecosystems are complex and their constituent
species do not necessarily react to climate change at the same pace or in the same ways; 3.
Climate change is not the only stress affecting ecosystems, and other stresses, like habitat loss,
overfishing, and pollution, complicate species’ and ecosystems’ ability to adapt to climate
change; 4. These cumulative and interacting changes will likely affect the benefits that humans
derive from both managed and unmanaged ecosystems, including the production of food and
fiber, purification of water and air, provision of pollinators, opportunities for recreation and
much more; and 5. The magnitude of ecological impacts to climate change will depend on many
factors, such as how quickly the change occurs; the intensity, frequency, and type of change; and
in the long run what actions humans take in response to climate change.
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Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by persons chosen for their diverse
perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National
Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to
provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published
report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of
objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft
manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to
thank the following for their review of this report:
Chad English, SeaWeb, Silver Spring, Maryland
Zhenya Gallon, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Lisa Graumlich, University of Arizona, Tuscon
Richard Hebda, Royal British Columbia Museum, Victoria, Canada
Chris Langdon, University of Miami, Florida
James Morison, University of Washington, Seattle
Robert Twilley, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge
John Wallace, University of Washington, Seattle
David A. Wedin, University of Nebraska, Lincoln
Donald A. Wilhite, University of Nebraska, Lincoln
Erika Zavaleta, University of California, Santa Cruz
Although the reviewers listed above provided constructive comments and suggestions,
they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final
draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. May
Berenbaum of the University of Illinois and Dr. George Hornberger of Vanderbilt University.
Appointed by the National Research Council, Drs. Berenbaum and Hornberger were responsible
for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance
with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered.
Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author committee and the
institution.
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Contents
1
1 Introduction
1
What are ecosystems and why are they important?
3
What do we know about current climate change?
11
What do we expect from future climate change?
14
Climate change can impact ecosystems in many ways
15
Ecosystems can adjust to change—over time
16
Climate Change, other stresses, and the limits of ecosystem resilience
17
2 Documented Current Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
17
Range Shifts
20
Seasonal Shifts
22
3 Examples of Ecological Impacts of Climate Change in the United States
22
The Pacific Coastline
25
The Rocky Mountains
27
The Breadbasket: Central United States
28
The Northeastern United States
29
Florida and the Southern United States
30
The Southwestern Deserts
31
Alaska and the Arctic
36
4 Lessons From the Distant Past
38
5 Impacts of Future Climate Changes
41
REFERENCES
APPENDIXES
52
A Statement of Task
53
B Committee Biographies
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