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In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction (2008)
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)

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. "5 Species Invasions and Extinction: The Future of Native Biodiversity on Islands--DOV F. SAX and STEVEN D. GAINES." In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.

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In the Light of Evolution: Volume II—Biodiversity and Extinction

used to reconstruct the historical data are cited within these modern publications.

Analyzing Change in Naturalized Richness

Data on change in naturalized richness through time (Appendix) were analyzed in multiple ways. First, data were plotted on individual islands over time (Fig. 5.3). Second, the mean ratio of naturalized to native richness was calculated in 20-year intervals over the past 140 years (Table 5.1); e.g., the penultimate interval, 1980, extended from 1971 to 1990. Native richness was held constant across these ratio analyses, using the currently recorded values (Appendix Table 5A.1); this was done because the actual number of native species on islands has changed very little over the past 140 years, because few species have been lost and presumably few native species gained during this time period. Naturalized richness values were taken from the Appendix. When more than one date was available from a single 20-year time interval, then the date closest to the midpoint of the time period was used; if two dates were equally close to the midpoint, then the one closest to dates analyzed for other islands in that time period was used. Third, these same native and naturalized values were plotted by 20-year time intervals (Fig. 5.4).

Note that the last date recorded for any individual island is subject to a procedural artifact that reduces the total number of naturalized species. This artifact lowers the number of naturalized species not just for individual islands, but also for mean estimates of naturalized species across islands. This procedural artifact occurs because exotic species are only counted as “naturalized” if they are seen (i) in multiple places on an island within a single time step or (ii) within the same area across multiple time steps, i.e., across two or more survey periods that are separated sufficiently for at least one turnover in generation time to have occurred [see Sax et al. (2002) for a full discussion]. Consequently, species seen in only one place on an island and recorded from only the most recent island survey will not be considered to be naturalized unless they persist to the next survey period, when the number of naturalized species from the previous time period would then be revised upward.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We thank Jay Stachowicz and members of the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis Working Group for valuable comments on the data discussed in this manuscript and Kate Smith, John Avise, and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments that improved this manuscript. We thank the organizers of the Sackler Colloquium, In the

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Front Matter (R1-R18)
Part I: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Animals (1-4)
1 Ecological Extinction and Evolution in the Brave New Ocean--JEREMY B. C. JACKSON (5-26)
2 Are We in the Midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction? A View from the World of Amphibians--DAVID B. WAKE and VANCE T. VREDENBURG (27-44)
3 Patterns of Biodiversity and Endemism on Indo-West Pacific Coral Reefs--MARJORIE L. REAKA, PAULA J. RODGERS, and ALEXEI U. KUDLA (45-62)
4 Homage to Linnaeus: How Many Parasites? How Many Hosts?--ANDY DOBSON, KEVIN D. LAFFERTY, ARMAND M. KURIS, RYAN F. HECHINGER, and WALTER JETZ (63-82)
Part II: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Plants and Microbes (83-84)
5 Species Invasions and Extinction: The Future of Native Biodiversity on Islands--DOV F. SAX and STEVEN D. GAINES (85-106)
6 How Many Tree Species Are There in the Amazon and How Many of Them Will Go Extinct?--STEPHEN P. HUBBELL, FANGLIANG HE, RICHARD CONDIT, LUIS BORDA-DE-ÁGUA, JAMES KELLNER, and HANS TER STEEGE (107-126)
7 Microbes on Mountainsides: Contrasting Elevational Patterns of Bacterial and Plant Diversity--JESSICA A. BRYANT, CHRISTINE LAMANNA, HÉLÈNE MORLON, ANDREW J. KERKHOFF, BRIAN J. ENQUIST, and JESSICA L. GREEN (127-148)
8 Resistance, Resilience, and Redundancy in Microbial Communities--STEVEN D. ALLISON and JENNIFER B. H. MARTINY (149-166)
Part III: Trends and Processes in the Paleontological Past (167-170)
9 Extinction as the Loss of Evolutionary History--DOUGLAS H. ERWIN (171-188)
10 Extinction and the Spatial Dynamics of Biodiversity--DAVID JABLONSKI (189-206)
11 Dynamics of Origination and Extinction in the Marine Fossil Record--JOHN ALROY (207-226)
12 Megafauna Biomass Tradeoff as a Driver of Quaternary and Future Extinctions--ANTHONY D. BARNOSKY (227-242)
Part IV: Prospects for the Future (243-246)
13 A Phylogenetic Perspective on the Distribution of Plant Diversity--MICHAEL J. DONOGHUE (247-262)
14 Phylogenetic Trees and the Future of Mammalian Biodiversity--T. JONATHAN DAVIES, SUSANNE A. FRITZ, RICHARD GRENYER, C. DAVID L. ORME, JON BIELBY, OLAF R. P. BININDA-EMONDS, MARCEL CARDILLO, KATE E. JONES, JOHN L. GITTLEMAN, GEORGINA M. MACE, and ANDY PURVIS (263-280)
15 Three Ambitious (and Rather Unorthodox) Assignments for the Field of Biodiversity Genetics--JOHN C. AVISE (281-296)
16 Engaging the Public in Biodiversity Issues--MICHAEL J. NOVACEK (297-316)
17 Further Engaging the Public on Biodiversity Issues--PETER J. BRYANT (317-328)
18 Where Does Biodiversity Go from Here? A Grim Business-as-Usual Forecast and a Hopeful Portfolio of Partial Solutions--PAUL R. EHRLICH and ROBERT M. PRINGLE (329-346)
References (347-394)
Index (395-414)