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In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction (2008)
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)

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. "10 Extinction and the Spatial Dynamics of Biodiversity--DAVID JABLONSKI." In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.

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In the Light of Evolution: Volume II—Biodiversity and Extinction

TABLE 10.1 Testing Models for Bivalve Genus Survivorship During the K-T Mass Extinction

Models

No. of Parameters

AIC

Weight

P

G** + R + B*

4

347.9

0.58

0.002/0.85/0.03

Geographic range***

2

348.6

0.40

e-6

Species richness***

2

356.2

0.02

0.0001

Body size

2

373.5

e-6

0.94

NOTES: When geographic range (G), species richness (R), and body size (B) are analyzed as independent factors, G is the most important factor, but R is also significant. When the three are analyzed together, R is not a significant factor. Note that the combined model is not significantly better than geographic range alone according to the AIC (for model selection, which essentially weighs the adding of parameters against the improved explanatory power of each model).

*P < 0.05;

**P < 0.01;

***P < 0.001.

and extinction risk varies with extinction intensity is not known and is difficult to assess. The few available data suggest that the relation between extinction probability has a steep slope during times of low extinction intensity, with the most widespread genera suffering negligible extinction at those times (Payne and Finnegan, 2007; Powell, 2007a) (Fig. 10.2A). The simplest view would be that perturbations generally operate at too small a spatial scale to affect these most widespread elements of the global biota. In the major mass extinctions, the y-intercept increases, so that a greater fraction of taxa are lost from all range classes, and the slope probably decreases (Fig. 10.2B). This configuration is much more demanding of the data, so that sparse or noisy data may fail to capture that shallower

FIGURE 10.2 The inverse relation between geographic range and extinction risk appears to vary with severity of extinction. Conceptual model for this variation, such that both slope and intercept may change between times of background (A) and mass extinction (B).

FIGURE 10.2 The inverse relation between geographic range and extinction risk appears to vary with severity of extinction. Conceptual model for this variation, such that both slope and intercept may change between times of background (A) and mass extinction (B).

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Front Matter (R1-R18)
Part I: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Animals (1-4)
1 Ecological Extinction and Evolution in the Brave New Ocean--JEREMY B. C. JACKSON (5-26)
2 Are We in the Midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction? A View from the World of Amphibians--DAVID B. WAKE and VANCE T. VREDENBURG (27-44)
3 Patterns of Biodiversity and Endemism on Indo-West Pacific Coral Reefs--MARJORIE L. REAKA, PAULA J. RODGERS, and ALEXEI U. KUDLA (45-62)
4 Homage to Linnaeus: How Many Parasites? How Many Hosts?--ANDY DOBSON, KEVIN D. LAFFERTY, ARMAND M. KURIS, RYAN F. HECHINGER, and WALTER JETZ (63-82)
Part II: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Plants and Microbes (83-84)
5 Species Invasions and Extinction: The Future of Native Biodiversity on Islands--DOV F. SAX and STEVEN D. GAINES (85-106)
6 How Many Tree Species Are There in the Amazon and How Many of Them Will Go Extinct?--STEPHEN P. HUBBELL, FANGLIANG HE, RICHARD CONDIT, LUIS BORDA-DE-ÁGUA, JAMES KELLNER, and HANS TER STEEGE (107-126)
7 Microbes on Mountainsides: Contrasting Elevational Patterns of Bacterial and Plant Diversity--JESSICA A. BRYANT, CHRISTINE LAMANNA, HÉLÈNE MORLON, ANDREW J. KERKHOFF, BRIAN J. ENQUIST, and JESSICA L. GREEN (127-148)
8 Resistance, Resilience, and Redundancy in Microbial Communities--STEVEN D. ALLISON and JENNIFER B. H. MARTINY (149-166)
Part III: Trends and Processes in the Paleontological Past (167-170)
9 Extinction as the Loss of Evolutionary History--DOUGLAS H. ERWIN (171-188)
10 Extinction and the Spatial Dynamics of Biodiversity--DAVID JABLONSKI (189-206)
11 Dynamics of Origination and Extinction in the Marine Fossil Record--JOHN ALROY (207-226)
12 Megafauna Biomass Tradeoff as a Driver of Quaternary and Future Extinctions--ANTHONY D. BARNOSKY (227-242)
Part IV: Prospects for the Future (243-246)
13 A Phylogenetic Perspective on the Distribution of Plant Diversity--MICHAEL J. DONOGHUE (247-262)
14 Phylogenetic Trees and the Future of Mammalian Biodiversity--T. JONATHAN DAVIES, SUSANNE A. FRITZ, RICHARD GRENYER, C. DAVID L. ORME, JON BIELBY, OLAF R. P. BININDA-EMONDS, MARCEL CARDILLO, KATE E. JONES, JOHN L. GITTLEMAN, GEORGINA M. MACE, and ANDY PURVIS (263-280)
15 Three Ambitious (and Rather Unorthodox) Assignments for the Field of Biodiversity Genetics--JOHN C. AVISE (281-296)
16 Engaging the Public in Biodiversity Issues--MICHAEL J. NOVACEK (297-316)
17 Further Engaging the Public on Biodiversity Issues--PETER J. BRYANT (317-328)
18 Where Does Biodiversity Go from Here? A Grim Business-as-Usual Forecast and a Hopeful Portfolio of Partial Solutions--PAUL R. EHRLICH and ROBERT M. PRINGLE (329-346)
References (347-394)
Index (395-414)