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In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction (2008)
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)

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. "10 Extinction and the Spatial Dynamics of Biodiversity--DAVID JABLONSKI." In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.

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In the Light of Evolution: Volume II—Biodiversity and Extinction

SOME EXTINCTIONS ARE SPATIALLY COMPLEX

The K-T extinction is remarkably homogenous on a global scale, except perhaps for greater intensity in tropical carbonate settings (Raup and Jablonski, 1993; Jablonski, 2005). However, other extinction events, particularly those that are less severe on a global scale, tend to show more spatial structure. For example, the mid-Cretaceous (end-Cenomanian) marine extinction appears to have been concentrated in northern Europe and the Western Interior Seaway of North America. The smaller events in the geologic record must be interpreted critically, because at least some of them may represent, or at least be heavily overprinted by, sampling variations [e.g., Foote (2003) and Smith and McGowan (2007)]. However, a seemingly genuine extinction pulse or regional series of pulses occurs in the oceans near the start of the Pleistocene. These regional extinctions are generally taken to represent a culling of taxa unable to cope with the onset of rapid, high-amplitude climate swings and oceanographic shifts that typify the Pleistocene. They vary in intensity and occur at slightly different times among regions [e.g., Kitamura et al. (2000), Monegatti and Raffi (2001), Todd et al. (2002), Smith and Roy (2006), Rivadeneira and Marquet (2007)], perhaps owing to regional variations in the timing of oceanographic transitions toward a glacial state [e.g., Ravelo et al. (2004)]; the many subsequent glacial-interglacial cycles evidently drove few extinctions in marine or terrestrial settings [e.g., Huntley (2005)].

This spatial structuring of Plio-Pleistocene extinctions is interesting from many perspectives, but perhaps the most urgent need is to understand the dynamical consequences of these extinctions, which bear directly on the path of future biodiversity. Do these events reflect the setting of a new regional diversity level, such that taxa capable of weathering the volatile Pleistocene climate regime are more generalized and thus structure a biota capable of accommodating fewer species and clades? [See Valentine (1983) and Valentine et al. (2008) for a view of diversity-dependent factors that would favor this explanation.] Or do some regions incur a “diversification debt,” a more positive analog to the extinction debt sometimes inferred for modern biotas squeezed into refugia too small to accommodate their present richness? The rapid recovery of diversity in the Caribbean, which evidently suffered more severely than the tropical eastern Pacific just on the other side of the Panama Isthmus (Todd et al., 2002), suggests that at least some Plio-Pleistocene extinctions involve diversification debts rather than diversity resettings. [By this argument, the anomalously low diversity of the Southeast Pacific molluscan fauna (e.g., Rivadeneira and Marquet, 2007) is a transient effect rather than a permanent biogeographic feature, attributable perhaps to the lower rates of diversity accumulation in extratropical regions; cf. Jablonski et al. (2006).] However, the spatially explicit form of the fundamental macroevolutionary equation shows that

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Front Matter (R1-R18)
Part I: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Animals (1-4)
1 Ecological Extinction and Evolution in the Brave New Ocean--JEREMY B. C. JACKSON (5-26)
2 Are We in the Midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction? A View from the World of Amphibians--DAVID B. WAKE and VANCE T. VREDENBURG (27-44)
3 Patterns of Biodiversity and Endemism on Indo-West Pacific Coral Reefs--MARJORIE L. REAKA, PAULA J. RODGERS, and ALEXEI U. KUDLA (45-62)
4 Homage to Linnaeus: How Many Parasites? How Many Hosts?--ANDY DOBSON, KEVIN D. LAFFERTY, ARMAND M. KURIS, RYAN F. HECHINGER, and WALTER JETZ (63-82)
Part II: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Plants and Microbes (83-84)
5 Species Invasions and Extinction: The Future of Native Biodiversity on Islands--DOV F. SAX and STEVEN D. GAINES (85-106)
6 How Many Tree Species Are There in the Amazon and How Many of Them Will Go Extinct?--STEPHEN P. HUBBELL, FANGLIANG HE, RICHARD CONDIT, LUIS BORDA-DE-ÁGUA, JAMES KELLNER, and HANS TER STEEGE (107-126)
7 Microbes on Mountainsides: Contrasting Elevational Patterns of Bacterial and Plant Diversity--JESSICA A. BRYANT, CHRISTINE LAMANNA, HÉLÈNE MORLON, ANDREW J. KERKHOFF, BRIAN J. ENQUIST, and JESSICA L. GREEN (127-148)
8 Resistance, Resilience, and Redundancy in Microbial Communities--STEVEN D. ALLISON and JENNIFER B. H. MARTINY (149-166)
Part III: Trends and Processes in the Paleontological Past (167-170)
9 Extinction as the Loss of Evolutionary History--DOUGLAS H. ERWIN (171-188)
10 Extinction and the Spatial Dynamics of Biodiversity--DAVID JABLONSKI (189-206)
11 Dynamics of Origination and Extinction in the Marine Fossil Record--JOHN ALROY (207-226)
12 Megafauna Biomass Tradeoff as a Driver of Quaternary and Future Extinctions--ANTHONY D. BARNOSKY (227-242)
Part IV: Prospects for the Future (243-246)
13 A Phylogenetic Perspective on the Distribution of Plant Diversity--MICHAEL J. DONOGHUE (247-262)
14 Phylogenetic Trees and the Future of Mammalian Biodiversity--T. JONATHAN DAVIES, SUSANNE A. FRITZ, RICHARD GRENYER, C. DAVID L. ORME, JON BIELBY, OLAF R. P. BININDA-EMONDS, MARCEL CARDILLO, KATE E. JONES, JOHN L. GITTLEMAN, GEORGINA M. MACE, and ANDY PURVIS (263-280)
15 Three Ambitious (and Rather Unorthodox) Assignments for the Field of Biodiversity Genetics--JOHN C. AVISE (281-296)
16 Engaging the Public in Biodiversity Issues--MICHAEL J. NOVACEK (297-316)
17 Further Engaging the Public on Biodiversity Issues--PETER J. BRYANT (317-328)
18 Where Does Biodiversity Go from Here? A Grim Business-as-Usual Forecast and a Hopeful Portfolio of Partial Solutions--PAUL R. EHRLICH and ROBERT M. PRINGLE (329-346)
References (347-394)
Index (395-414)