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In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction (2008)
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)

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. "12 Megafauna Biomass Tradeoff as a Driver of Quaternary and Future Extinctions--ANTHONY D. BARNOSKY." In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.

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In the Light of Evolution: Volume II—Biodiversity and Extinction
Estimating Non-Human Megafauna Biomass

In principle, megafauna biomass for a given species is calculated by multiplying the average body mass by the number of individual animals. To estimate this and produce the figures in this chapter, I used the following parameters. Average body mass values were taken from a recent compilation (Smith et al., 2003). For the few species not listed in that compilation, I used values for similarly sized animals that were listed. Number of individual animals per species was estimated in the following way. First, there is a correlation between body mass and population density, that is, individuals per km2 (Damuth, 1993; Silva and Downing, 1995; White et al., 2007). To estimate density, I used regressions from Silva and Downing (1995): for large herbivores, density = −0.44 × log(kg body mass) + 1.01; and for large carnivores, density = −1.31 × log(kg body mass) + 1.22. Second, megafauna species typically have geographic range sizes that average between 7% and 9% of the area of the continent on which they live. For Australia, I estimated the geographic range size of each megafauna species to be 7.8% of the continental area, or ≈600,000 km2 (Murray and Dickman, 2000). For Africa, Eurasia, North America, and South America, geographic ranges sizes were set to 8.6%, 8.1%, 8.2%, and 7.2% of the respective continental areas (Letcher and Harvey, 1994; Smith et al., 1994; Brown, 1995). For each species, estimated density was multiplied by estimated geographic area to give an approximate number of individuals, which was then multiplied by estimated mass per individual.

Continental area was not constant through the time spanned by the QME, because during glacial times, nearly one-half of North America, about one-tenth of Europe and northern Asia, and a small percentage of South America were covered by glaciers. This loss of land was offset only to a very small extent by the exposure of currently submerged land with the lower sea level of glacial times. To account for varying continental area in the estimates of geographic range size, continental area during glacial times was considered to be 50% of its current size for North America, 90% of its current size for Europe and northern Asia, and 95% for South America. For the transitional time ≈10 kyr B.P., area for these continents was set at the intermediate values of 75%, 0.95%, and 98% of their current respective sizes.

Biomass of Domestic Stock

To obtain a maximum value for the biomass of domesticated megafauna, I calculated the present proportion of human biomass to domestic stock biomass as tabulated by Hern (1999). I then used that proportion to back-calculate the maximum biomass of domestic stock, given the estimated biomass of humans, going back to 10.5 kyr B.P., by which time

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Front Matter (R1-R18)
Part I: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Animals (1-4)
1 Ecological Extinction and Evolution in the Brave New Ocean--JEREMY B. C. JACKSON (5-26)
2 Are We in the Midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction? A View from the World of Amphibians--DAVID B. WAKE and VANCE T. VREDENBURG (27-44)
3 Patterns of Biodiversity and Endemism on Indo-West Pacific Coral Reefs--MARJORIE L. REAKA, PAULA J. RODGERS, and ALEXEI U. KUDLA (45-62)
4 Homage to Linnaeus: How Many Parasites? How Many Hosts?--ANDY DOBSON, KEVIN D. LAFFERTY, ARMAND M. KURIS, RYAN F. HECHINGER, and WALTER JETZ (63-82)
Part II: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Plants and Microbes (83-84)
5 Species Invasions and Extinction: The Future of Native Biodiversity on Islands--DOV F. SAX and STEVEN D. GAINES (85-106)
6 How Many Tree Species Are There in the Amazon and How Many of Them Will Go Extinct?--STEPHEN P. HUBBELL, FANGLIANG HE, RICHARD CONDIT, LUIS BORDA-DE-ÁGUA, JAMES KELLNER, and HANS TER STEEGE (107-126)
7 Microbes on Mountainsides: Contrasting Elevational Patterns of Bacterial and Plant Diversity--JESSICA A. BRYANT, CHRISTINE LAMANNA, HÉLÈNE MORLON, ANDREW J. KERKHOFF, BRIAN J. ENQUIST, and JESSICA L. GREEN (127-148)
8 Resistance, Resilience, and Redundancy in Microbial Communities--STEVEN D. ALLISON and JENNIFER B. H. MARTINY (149-166)
Part III: Trends and Processes in the Paleontological Past (167-170)
9 Extinction as the Loss of Evolutionary History--DOUGLAS H. ERWIN (171-188)
10 Extinction and the Spatial Dynamics of Biodiversity--DAVID JABLONSKI (189-206)
11 Dynamics of Origination and Extinction in the Marine Fossil Record--JOHN ALROY (207-226)
12 Megafauna Biomass Tradeoff as a Driver of Quaternary and Future Extinctions--ANTHONY D. BARNOSKY (227-242)
Part IV: Prospects for the Future (243-246)
13 A Phylogenetic Perspective on the Distribution of Plant Diversity--MICHAEL J. DONOGHUE (247-262)
14 Phylogenetic Trees and the Future of Mammalian Biodiversity--T. JONATHAN DAVIES, SUSANNE A. FRITZ, RICHARD GRENYER, C. DAVID L. ORME, JON BIELBY, OLAF R. P. BININDA-EMONDS, MARCEL CARDILLO, KATE E. JONES, JOHN L. GITTLEMAN, GEORGINA M. MACE, and ANDY PURVIS (263-280)
15 Three Ambitious (and Rather Unorthodox) Assignments for the Field of Biodiversity Genetics--JOHN C. AVISE (281-296)
16 Engaging the Public in Biodiversity Issues--MICHAEL J. NOVACEK (297-316)
17 Further Engaging the Public on Biodiversity Issues--PETER J. BRYANT (317-328)
18 Where Does Biodiversity Go from Here? A Grim Business-as-Usual Forecast and a Hopeful Portfolio of Partial Solutions--PAUL R. EHRLICH and ROBERT M. PRINGLE (329-346)
References (347-394)
Index (395-414)