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processes involved to make meaningful qualitative predictions about what will happen in the oceans if humans fail to restrain their style of exploitation and consumption. Failure to stop overfishing will push increasing numbers of species to the brink of extinction—perhaps irreversibly as for Newfoundland cod—except for small, opportunistic species. Unrestrained runoff of nutrients and toxins, coupled with rising temperatures, will increase the size and abundance of dead zones and toxic blooms that may merge all along the continents. Even farmed seafood will be increasingly toxic and unfit for human consumption unless grown in isolation from the ocean. Outbreaks of disease will increase. Failure to cap and reduce emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases will increase ocean temperatures and intensify acidification. Warmer and lighter surface waters will inhibit vertical mixing of the ocean, eventually leading to hypoxia or anoxia below the thermocline as in the Black Sea. Biogeochemical cycles will be perturbed in uncertain ways as they have been in the past (Knoll, 2003). Mass extinction of multicellular life will result in profound loss of animal and plant biodiversity, and microbes will reign supreme.

These predictions will undoubtedly appear extreme, but it is difficult to imagine how such changes will not come to pass without fundamental changes in human behavior. Moreover, as we have seen, all of these trends have actually been measured to a limited degree in the past few decades. The oceans are becoming warmer and more acidic; eutrophication, hypoxia, and the numbers and sizes of dead zones are increasing in quantity and size; vertical mixing of the open ocean is measurably decreasing; and many of our most valuable fisheries have collapsed and failed to recover. Some may say that it is irresponsible to make such predictions pending further detailed study to be sure of every point. However, we will never be certain about every detail, and it would be irresponsible to remain silent in the face of what we already know.


The three major drivers of ecosystem degradation are overexploitation, nutrient and toxic pollution, and climate change. The challenges of bringing these threats under control are enormously complex and will require fundamental changes in fisheries, agricultural practices, and the ways we obtain energy for everything we do. We have to begin somewhere, however, and the following very significant actions could begin right away without further scientific research or technological innovation.

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