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In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction (2008)
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)

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. "Part IV: Prospects for the Future." In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.

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In the Light of Evolution: Volume II—Biodiversity and Extinction

mental concerns below other challenges such as terrorism, the economy, and family values. Novacek analyzes this state of affairs and argues that effective ways must be found to tailor biodiversity messages to each target audience. Enlightened environmental measures by corporations and democratic governments will be achieved only if the “power of the people” is marshaled in favor of conservation efforts.

In Chapter 17, Peter Bryant canvasses the many ways that the general public can become engaged in conservation efforts. Using Orange County—the second most populous county in California—as a touchstone, he explains how local citizens have played and are continuing to play important roles in identifying species of plants and animals, monitoring the status of local populations, assessing geographic distributions, monitoring migration patterns, contributing to rescue and restoration efforts, educating students, joining conservation organizations, promoting parklands and other preservation initiatives, and otherwise contributing to the assessment and protection of biodiversity. These examples are heartening because Orange County (with three million people and growing) lies in one of the most heavily urbanized regions of North America, yet still retains substantial biodiversity that at least some segments of the public are beginning to appreciate and strive to protect.

In Chapter 18, Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle close this book by reminding us that “the fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will be determined during the next 50–100 years by the activities of a single species” (Homo sapiens). With the projected increase by mid-century of 2.6 billion people to an already overcrowded planet, the prospects for preserving substantial biodiversity are dim, unless societal mindsets and comportments change dramatically and quickly. The authors issue a pluralistic call for action on seven fronts: combat the underlying drivers of biodiversity loss (notably human population growth, overconsumption, and the use of malign technologies); promote permanent nature reserves; provide social and economic incentives to preserve wild populations; better align economies with conservation; restore biodiversity on currently degraded lands; vest human occupants of a region with the desire and capacity to protect nature; and, in general, fundamentally transform human attitudes toward nature and biodiversity. These calls are ambitious, but positive societal responses to them are not yet beyond the realm of possibility.

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Front Matter (R1-R18)
Part I: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Animals (1-4)
1 Ecological Extinction and Evolution in the Brave New Ocean--JEREMY B. C. JACKSON (5-26)
2 Are We in the Midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction? A View from the World of Amphibians--DAVID B. WAKE and VANCE T. VREDENBURG (27-44)
3 Patterns of Biodiversity and Endemism on Indo-West Pacific Coral Reefs--MARJORIE L. REAKA, PAULA J. RODGERS, and ALEXEI U. KUDLA (45-62)
4 Homage to Linnaeus: How Many Parasites? How Many Hosts?--ANDY DOBSON, KEVIN D. LAFFERTY, ARMAND M. KURIS, RYAN F. HECHINGER, and WALTER JETZ (63-82)
Part II: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Plants and Microbes (83-84)
5 Species Invasions and Extinction: The Future of Native Biodiversity on Islands--DOV F. SAX and STEVEN D. GAINES (85-106)
6 How Many Tree Species Are There in the Amazon and How Many of Them Will Go Extinct?--STEPHEN P. HUBBELL, FANGLIANG HE, RICHARD CONDIT, LUIS BORDA-DE-ÁGUA, JAMES KELLNER, and HANS TER STEEGE (107-126)
7 Microbes on Mountainsides: Contrasting Elevational Patterns of Bacterial and Plant Diversity--JESSICA A. BRYANT, CHRISTINE LAMANNA, HÉLÈNE MORLON, ANDREW J. KERKHOFF, BRIAN J. ENQUIST, and JESSICA L. GREEN (127-148)
8 Resistance, Resilience, and Redundancy in Microbial Communities--STEVEN D. ALLISON and JENNIFER B. H. MARTINY (149-166)
Part III: Trends and Processes in the Paleontological Past (167-170)
9 Extinction as the Loss of Evolutionary History--DOUGLAS H. ERWIN (171-188)
10 Extinction and the Spatial Dynamics of Biodiversity--DAVID JABLONSKI (189-206)
11 Dynamics of Origination and Extinction in the Marine Fossil Record--JOHN ALROY (207-226)
12 Megafauna Biomass Tradeoff as a Driver of Quaternary and Future Extinctions--ANTHONY D. BARNOSKY (227-242)
Part IV: Prospects for the Future (243-246)
13 A Phylogenetic Perspective on the Distribution of Plant Diversity--MICHAEL J. DONOGHUE (247-262)
14 Phylogenetic Trees and the Future of Mammalian Biodiversity--T. JONATHAN DAVIES, SUSANNE A. FRITZ, RICHARD GRENYER, C. DAVID L. ORME, JON BIELBY, OLAF R. P. BININDA-EMONDS, MARCEL CARDILLO, KATE E. JONES, JOHN L. GITTLEMAN, GEORGINA M. MACE, and ANDY PURVIS (263-280)
15 Three Ambitious (and Rather Unorthodox) Assignments for the Field of Biodiversity Genetics--JOHN C. AVISE (281-296)
16 Engaging the Public in Biodiversity Issues--MICHAEL J. NOVACEK (297-316)
17 Further Engaging the Public on Biodiversity Issues--PETER J. BRYANT (317-328)
18 Where Does Biodiversity Go from Here? A Grim Business-as-Usual Forecast and a Hopeful Portfolio of Partial Solutions--PAUL R. EHRLICH and ROBERT M. PRINGLE (329-346)
References (347-394)
Index (395-414)