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In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction (2008)
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)

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. "18 Where Does Biodiversity Go from Here? A Grim Business-as-Usual Forecast and a Hopeful Portfolio of Partial Solutions--PAUL R. EHRLICH and ROBERT M. PRINGLE." In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.

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In the Light of Evolution: Volume II—Biodiversity and Extinction

In addition to the individual efforts of a growing number of academics and practitioners, innovative programs are emerging to tackle these twin challenges at large scales. The Natural Capital Project is an international collaboration involving Stanford University, The Nature Conservancy, and the World Wildlife Fund that aims to integrate ecosystem-service values into land-use and policy decisions (Aldhous and Holmes, 2007). By developing new decision-support tools—including software to quantify and map the value of ecosystem services across landscapes and seascapes—and applying them in several demonstration sites across the world, the project hopes to promote more forward-thinking land-use decisions.

In some cases, protecting ecosystem services (or even engineering them) may not enhance biodiversity conservation (Chan et al., 2006; Turner et al., 2007), but it may be useful for other anthropocentric reasons. We should be frank about that when pondering how to justify and finance our operations. We should also think about how increased valuation of ecosystem services might spill over into other sectors of the economy: If we rely on an ecosystem to do a job, are we putting a human being out of work, and might that person retaliate against the service-providing ecosystem?

Finally, we must recognize that, for whatever reason, demand for particular ecosystem services will wax and wane, but that the sources of the services must not be allowed to wax and wane in sync. As proponents and critics of market-based conservation approaches both point out, complete commodification of ecosystems is not the goal. Yes, ecosystem services have enormous value in traditional economic terms for their role in sustaining and enriching human life, and efforts to ascertain these values are important. No, ecosystems and their biodiversity cannot compete on the open market as service providers alone (Chan et al., 2007). To subject ecosystems to all of the same demands and risks that commodities and corporations face in capitalist economies would be to ensure their eventual diminution and demise.

Globalization intensifies this hazard. In a globalized, demodularized world, goods and services can often be imported and outsourced more cheaply than they can be obtained locally—and this includes goods and services provided by ecosystems. “Endemic” ecosystem services, which cannot be supplanted by goods and services from distant sources, will likely be the most effective allies to biodiversity in the future.

Into Ecologically Reclaimed and Restored Habitats

Experience has shown not only that science can inform more rapid, more effective restoration of local habitats (Young et al., 2005), but also that contiguous ecosystems can be built from scattered pieces at large scales

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Front Matter (R1-R18)
Part I: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Animals (1-4)
1 Ecological Extinction and Evolution in the Brave New Ocean--JEREMY B. C. JACKSON (5-26)
2 Are We in the Midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction? A View from the World of Amphibians--DAVID B. WAKE and VANCE T. VREDENBURG (27-44)
3 Patterns of Biodiversity and Endemism on Indo-West Pacific Coral Reefs--MARJORIE L. REAKA, PAULA J. RODGERS, and ALEXEI U. KUDLA (45-62)
4 Homage to Linnaeus: How Many Parasites? How Many Hosts?--ANDY DOBSON, KEVIN D. LAFFERTY, ARMAND M. KURIS, RYAN F. HECHINGER, and WALTER JETZ (63-82)
Part II: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Plants and Microbes (83-84)
5 Species Invasions and Extinction: The Future of Native Biodiversity on Islands--DOV F. SAX and STEVEN D. GAINES (85-106)
6 How Many Tree Species Are There in the Amazon and How Many of Them Will Go Extinct?--STEPHEN P. HUBBELL, FANGLIANG HE, RICHARD CONDIT, LUIS BORDA-DE-ÁGUA, JAMES KELLNER, and HANS TER STEEGE (107-126)
7 Microbes on Mountainsides: Contrasting Elevational Patterns of Bacterial and Plant Diversity--JESSICA A. BRYANT, CHRISTINE LAMANNA, HÉLÈNE MORLON, ANDREW J. KERKHOFF, BRIAN J. ENQUIST, and JESSICA L. GREEN (127-148)
8 Resistance, Resilience, and Redundancy in Microbial Communities--STEVEN D. ALLISON and JENNIFER B. H. MARTINY (149-166)
Part III: Trends and Processes in the Paleontological Past (167-170)
9 Extinction as the Loss of Evolutionary History--DOUGLAS H. ERWIN (171-188)
10 Extinction and the Spatial Dynamics of Biodiversity--DAVID JABLONSKI (189-206)
11 Dynamics of Origination and Extinction in the Marine Fossil Record--JOHN ALROY (207-226)
12 Megafauna Biomass Tradeoff as a Driver of Quaternary and Future Extinctions--ANTHONY D. BARNOSKY (227-242)
Part IV: Prospects for the Future (243-246)
13 A Phylogenetic Perspective on the Distribution of Plant Diversity--MICHAEL J. DONOGHUE (247-262)
14 Phylogenetic Trees and the Future of Mammalian Biodiversity--T. JONATHAN DAVIES, SUSANNE A. FRITZ, RICHARD GRENYER, C. DAVID L. ORME, JON BIELBY, OLAF R. P. BININDA-EMONDS, MARCEL CARDILLO, KATE E. JONES, JOHN L. GITTLEMAN, GEORGINA M. MACE, and ANDY PURVIS (263-280)
15 Three Ambitious (and Rather Unorthodox) Assignments for the Field of Biodiversity Genetics--JOHN C. AVISE (281-296)
16 Engaging the Public in Biodiversity Issues--MICHAEL J. NOVACEK (297-316)
17 Further Engaging the Public on Biodiversity Issues--PETER J. BRYANT (317-328)
18 Where Does Biodiversity Go from Here? A Grim Business-as-Usual Forecast and a Hopeful Portfolio of Partial Solutions--PAUL R. EHRLICH and ROBERT M. PRINGLE (329-346)
References (347-394)
Index (395-414)