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potential impact on the world’s land-bird species under the simplifying assumption of stationary geographic ranges.

Projections of land-use change based on the different MEA scenarios have revealed consistent geographical patterns of impact. The projections differ mainly in the magnitude of their impacts, with the reactive and isolationist scenarios experiencing about twice the rate of habitat conversion as the scenarios for proactive and connected worlds (Carpenter et al., 2005). In all cases, the impacts of climate change in the next 50 to 100 years are largest in polar regions. Although climate change also has effects in the temperate and tropical zones, these are almost completely masked by human agricultural expansion, particularly in the tropics. This pattern of land-use change will interact directly with the geographical variation in the range sizes of bird species. In particular, bird species with small ranges are at a much greater risk of extinction than those with large geographical ranges (Jetz et al., 2007). Unfortunately, most avian species living in the tropics have small ranges and a significant number will experience large declines in range size due to agricultural habitat conversion. In contrast, the minority of species that live in the polar zones are projected to experience large potential loss of range due to climate change, but they usually have sufficiently large geographical ranges that some of their environment remains habitable (Fig. 4.5) (Jetz et al., 2007).

FIGURE 4.5 The relationship between geographic range size and percentage range transformations for all of the worlds 8,750 land birds under two MEA scenarios of future land-use change. (Left) Adaptive mosaic (which assumes a world with open political dialogue that deals proactively with environmental problems). (Right) Order from strength scenario (which assumes a more insular political world that only deals retroactively with environmental problems). Jetz et al. (2007) provide complete detail for how the analyses were developed. The dots illustrate number of avian species, lightest shading denotes range change due to climate change, and black illustrates land-use change due to agricultural expansion.

FIGURE 4.5 The relationship between geographic range size and percentage range transformations for all of the world’s 8,750 land birds under two MEA scenarios of future land-use change. (Left) “Adaptive mosaic” (which assumes a world with open political dialogue that deals proactively with environmental problems). (Right) “Order from strength” scenario (which assumes a more insular political world that only deals retroactively with environmental problems). Jetz et al. (2007) provide complete detail for how the analyses were developed. The dots illustrate number of avian species, lightest shading denotes range change due to climate change, and black illustrates land-use change due to agricultural expansion.



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