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In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction (2008)
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)

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. "5 Species Invasions and Extinction: The Future of Native Biodiversity on Islands--DOV F. SAX and STEVEN D. GAINES." In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2008.

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In the Light of Evolution: Volume II—Biodiversity and Extinction

TABLE 5.1 Ratio (and Standard Error) of Naturalized to Native Plant Species on Oceanic Islands

Year

Ratio

SE

2000

1.07

0.11

1980

1.07

0.14

1960

0.70

0.13

1940

0.52

0.15

1920

0.44

0.09

1900

0.31

0.09

1880

0.15

0.03

1860

0.07

0.04

nificant regression lines for 1860, 1940, and 1960 occurred in periods when relatively few historical surveys were conducted on these islands such that few data points are available for analysis (see Appendix text). The regressions from 2000 and 1880, when a relatively large number of individual data points are available, illustrate the consistency in slope among these periods (Fig. 5.4B). The consistency in the slope but change in intercept implies that the proportion of naturalized-to-native species has generally been consistent across islands within any given time interval but different

FIGURE 5.4 Across 20-year time intervals from 1880 to the present, the slope of log-log regressions between native and naturalized richness has been relatively constant, whereas the intercepts have changed; this implies that the 1:1 relationship currently observed between native and naturalized richness is a recent phenomenon but that, at repeated points during the past 120 years, there has been a consistent ratio of native-to-naturalized species across islands. (A) Regression lines are illustrated for each 20-year interval that had a significant relationship; limited data reduced the statistical power for the 1860, 1940, and 1960 time intervals. (B) The regression lines and individual data points are shown for the two time intervals with the greatest amount of data.

FIGURE 5.4 Across 20-year time intervals from 1880 to the present, the slope of log-log regressions between native and naturalized richness has been relatively constant, whereas the intercepts have changed; this implies that the 1:1 relationship currently observed between native and naturalized richness is a recent phenomenon but that, at repeated points during the past 120 years, there has been a consistent ratio of native-to-naturalized species across islands. (A) Regression lines are illustrated for each 20-year interval that had a significant relationship; limited data reduced the statistical power for the 1860, 1940, and 1960 time intervals. (B) The regression lines and individual data points are shown for the two time intervals with the greatest amount of data.

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Front Matter (R1-R18)
Part I: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Animals (1-4)
1 Ecological Extinction and Evolution in the Brave New Ocean--JEREMY B. C. JACKSON (5-26)
2 Are We in the Midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction? A View from the World of Amphibians--DAVID B. WAKE and VANCE T. VREDENBURG (27-44)
3 Patterns of Biodiversity and Endemism on Indo-West Pacific Coral Reefs--MARJORIE L. REAKA, PAULA J. RODGERS, and ALEXEI U. KUDLA (45-62)
4 Homage to Linnaeus: How Many Parasites? How Many Hosts?--ANDY DOBSON, KEVIN D. LAFFERTY, ARMAND M. KURIS, RYAN F. HECHINGER, and WALTER JETZ (63-82)
Part II: Contemporary Patterns and Processes in Plants and Microbes (83-84)
5 Species Invasions and Extinction: The Future of Native Biodiversity on Islands--DOV F. SAX and STEVEN D. GAINES (85-106)
6 How Many Tree Species Are There in the Amazon and How Many of Them Will Go Extinct?--STEPHEN P. HUBBELL, FANGLIANG HE, RICHARD CONDIT, LUIS BORDA-DE-ÁGUA, JAMES KELLNER, and HANS TER STEEGE (107-126)
7 Microbes on Mountainsides: Contrasting Elevational Patterns of Bacterial and Plant Diversity--JESSICA A. BRYANT, CHRISTINE LAMANNA, HÉLÈNE MORLON, ANDREW J. KERKHOFF, BRIAN J. ENQUIST, and JESSICA L. GREEN (127-148)
8 Resistance, Resilience, and Redundancy in Microbial Communities--STEVEN D. ALLISON and JENNIFER B. H. MARTINY (149-166)
Part III: Trends and Processes in the Paleontological Past (167-170)
9 Extinction as the Loss of Evolutionary History--DOUGLAS H. ERWIN (171-188)
10 Extinction and the Spatial Dynamics of Biodiversity--DAVID JABLONSKI (189-206)
11 Dynamics of Origination and Extinction in the Marine Fossil Record--JOHN ALROY (207-226)
12 Megafauna Biomass Tradeoff as a Driver of Quaternary and Future Extinctions--ANTHONY D. BARNOSKY (227-242)
Part IV: Prospects for the Future (243-246)
13 A Phylogenetic Perspective on the Distribution of Plant Diversity--MICHAEL J. DONOGHUE (247-262)
14 Phylogenetic Trees and the Future of Mammalian Biodiversity--T. JONATHAN DAVIES, SUSANNE A. FRITZ, RICHARD GRENYER, C. DAVID L. ORME, JON BIELBY, OLAF R. P. BININDA-EMONDS, MARCEL CARDILLO, KATE E. JONES, JOHN L. GITTLEMAN, GEORGINA M. MACE, and ANDY PURVIS (263-280)
15 Three Ambitious (and Rather Unorthodox) Assignments for the Field of Biodiversity Genetics--JOHN C. AVISE (281-296)
16 Engaging the Public in Biodiversity Issues--MICHAEL J. NOVACEK (297-316)
17 Further Engaging the Public on Biodiversity Issues--PETER J. BRYANT (317-328)
18 Where Does Biodiversity Go from Here? A Grim Business-as-Usual Forecast and a Hopeful Portfolio of Partial Solutions--PAUL R. EHRLICH and ROBERT M. PRINGLE (329-346)
References (347-394)
Index (395-414)