Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile (2009)

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Appendix B Committee Biographical Information John F. Ahearne, Sigma Xi, the Scientific Research Society, Co-Chair, is the director of the Ethics Program for Sigma Xi and an adjunct scholar at Resources for the Future. His professional interests are reactor safety, energy issues, resource allocation, and public policy management. He has served as commissioner and chair of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, system analyst for the White House Energy Office, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Energy, and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense. Dr. Ahearne currently serves on the Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Research Advisory Committee. In addition, Dr. Ahearne has been active in several National Research Council (NRC) committees examining issues in risk assessment. He is a fellow of the American Physi- cal Society, the Society for Risk Analysis, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the American Academy of Arts and Sci- ences, and he is a member the American Nuclear Society and the National Academy of Engineering. Dr. Ahearne received his Ph.D. in physics from Princeton University. Marvin Adams is a professor of nuclear engineering, the associate vice president for Research, and the director of the Institute for National Secu- rity Education and Research at Texas A&M University. Early in his career, Dr. Adams worked at Sequoyah Nuclear Plant (a TVA power plant) and its support office before entering graduate school at the University of Michigan, where he obtained his Ph.D. in nuclear engineering. There he began working on computational methods, focusing on problems involv- 67 

68 evaluation of qmu methodology ing particle transport. This effort continued after he became a code devel- oper in the secondary-design division at Lawrence Livermore National Lab, and it has continued and broadened during 15 years on the faculty at Texas A&M University. Dr. Adams’s contributions include improved discretization methods, theoretical analysis of the behavior of various methods in various limits, theory of iterative methods, and improved iterative methods. In recent years he has focused on efficient large-scale coupled-physics simulations and on assessing the predictive capability of such simulations. He led a project that developed and continues to improve the PDT code (3D massively parallel deterministic transport), and he directed Texas A&M’s Center for Large-Scale Scientific Simula- tions. This center focuses on coupled-physics simulations with emphasis on quantitative assessment of predictive capability. Dr. Adams has served on panels and committees that review and advise the NNSA labs and DOE on matters including stockpile stewardship and the role of advanced scientific computing (ASC) in the weapons program. John Cornwall received his A.B. from Harvard and his Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley. After postdoctoral positions at CalTech and the Institute for Advanced Study, he became a faculty member at UCLA, where he does research in elementary particle theory; later he became a professor of science and policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School in Santa Monica. He is the author of more than 130 ref- ereed publications and contributions to books and coauthor of a roughly equal number of unpublished assessment and review reports in numer- ous technological areas. He has been a visiting professor at many institu- tions in the United States and abroad. For many years he was a consultant to the Space Sciences Laboratory of the Aerospace Corporation, where he did research on the magnetosphere and the aurora. He has served on the Defense Science Board and is a consultant to the Los Alamos and Liver- more National Laboratories and to the Institute for Defense Analyses. He serves as chairman of the Defense and Nuclear Technology Review Committee of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory as well as chairman of the Predictive Science Panel reviewing strategic computing at Los Alamos and Livermore and is a member and for some years was vice chairman of JASON, advising the government on subjects such as ballistic missile defense, ultrasound technology, and the human genome project, among others. He has authored several works on, and testified to Congress concerning, ballistic missile defense, including as coauthor of the report Countermeasures of the Union of Concerned Scientists. He has been an adviser to, and lecturer in, the Public Policy and Nuclear Threats program of the Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation at the Uni- versity of California, San Diego. He is a fellow of the American Associa- 

APPENDIX B 69 tion for the Advancement of Science and the American Physical Society and a member of the New York Academy of Science and the American Geophysical Union. Douglas Eardley is a professor of physics at the Kavli Institute for Theo- retical Physics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He was an associate professor of astronomy at Harvard University; an associate professor of physics and astronomy at Yale University; a research fellow in physics at the California Institute of Technology; a physicist in the T Division at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; and an assistant in the Caltech Infrared Astronomy Project. Dr. Eardley received an M.S. and a Ph.D. in physics from the University of California, Berkeley, and a B.S. in physics from Caltech. He was a member of the NRC Working Group on Related Areas of Science of the Astronomy Survey Committee; he has been a member of JASON since 1981; and he was a member of the NRC Committee on the Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions. From 1986 to 1989, he was on the editorial advisory board of the Physical Review D. Dr. Eardley’s other memberships, responsibilities, and honors include these: member, Science Panel of the NRC Astronomy Survey Committee (“Bahcall Committee”); chair, External Advisory Board, Insti- tute for Fundamental Theory, University of Florida at Gainesville; Physics Advisory Committee, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; plenary speaker, Texas Symposium on Relativistic Astrophysics; NASA Ultra- violet/Visible/Gravitational Program Review; Openness Advisory Panel, Secretary of Energy Advisory Board; coordinator, with R.D. Blandford and J.-P. Lasota, Program on Black Hole Astrophysics of the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, which had three conferences; National Security Panel, University of California President’s Council on the National Labo- ratories; chair, External Review Panel for the Radiation Effects Sciences Program, Sandia National Laboratories; and mission committee, Los Ala- mos National Security, Los Alamos National Laboratory. Dr. Eardley’s research interests include general relativity: black holes, gravity waves, quantum gravity; theoretical astrophysics: X-ray sources, quasars, the active galactic nucleus, cosmology; mathematical physics: nonlinear par- tial differential equations; geometry; physics and society; national secu- rity; nuclear weapons; and arms control. B. John Garrick (NAE) is an independent consultant who currently serves in a presidential appointment as chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Tech- nical Review Board. He has an active consulting practice in the develop- ment and application of the risk sciences to systems in the nuclear, space, chemical, and marine fields. Dr. Garrick has expertise in quantitative risk assessment and how risk assessment principles are applied as a fun- 

70 evaluation of qmu methodology damental part of engineering design. His research interests include the quantification and importance ranking of risks to humans and the envi- ronment to support societal decision making. He has served on numerous NRC committees, the most recent including the Committee on Assess- ment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope, the Committee on Combating Terrorism, and the Committee on End Points for Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste in Russia and the United States. He received the Society for Risk Analysis Distinguished Achievement Award and was appointed to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste in 1994. Dr. Garrick was elected to the National Academy of Engineering in 1993. He has a Ph.D. in engineering and applied science from the University of Califor- nia, Los Angeles. Richard L. Garwin is an emeritus fellow at IBM’s T.J. Watson Research Center. A member of the NAS, NAE, and IOM, his expertise is in experi- mental and computational physics and he has made contributions to nuclear weapons design, instruments and electronics for nuclear and low- temperature physics, computer elements and systems, superconducting devices, communications systems, behavior of solid helium, and detection of gravitational radiation. Dr. Garwin has served on numerous scientific boards and advisory committees, including the President’s Science Advi- sory Committee from 1962 to 1965; the 1998 “Rumsfeld Commission” to assess the ballistic missile threat to the United States; the NRC Committee on the Effects of Nuclear Earth Penetrating Weapons and other Weapons; and the NRC Committee on Conventional Prompt Global Strike Capabil- ity. In addition, he has been an active member of the NRC Committee on International Security and Arms Control since 1980. He currently consults for Los Alamos National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories and is an active member of JASON. He has written extensively on nuclear weapons-related issues over the course of several decades, particularly on the question of maintaining the nuclear stockpile under the comprehen- sive test ban regime. Until August 2001, he chaired the State Department’s Arms Control and Nonproliferation Advisory Board. He is a fellow of the American Physical Society and the American Academy of Arts and Sci- ences and a member of the American Philosophical Society. Sydell P. Gold retired as senior vice president at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), where she was responsible for SAIC’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA’s) business activities as DTRA account manager and for developing new business opportunities for   Deceased, March 4, 2008. 

APPENDIX B 71 SAIC. Previously, she was also the deputy sector manager, assisting the management of the Advanced Technology and Analysis Sector, a more than $350 million organization with over 2,000 employees specializing in systems design and engineering and computational and laboratory analysis and research. Prior to joining SAIC in 1992, Dr. Gold served for 10 years with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (Acquisition) as deputy assistant secretary (staff support and analysis) (acting) and as deputy to the assistant secretary. Before that, she served as a member of the professional staff at the National Security Council, as a technical staff member at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory per- forming analyses of nuclear weapons and related security issues, and at Sandia National Laboratories utilizing applied mathematics and systems analyses for national security and nondefense issues. Dr. Gold received a B.A. from Barnard College of Columbia University, an M.S. from the Uni- versity of New Mexico, and a Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of California, Berkeley. Yogendra (Yogi) Gupta is Regents professor in the Department of Physics and Astronomy, and Director of the Institute for Shock Physics at Wash- ington State University. He completed his B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees at the Birla Institute of Technology and Science in Pilani, India. He completed his Ph.D. at Washington State University in 1972. After two years of postdoctoral work at Washington State University and Brown University, he worked for nearly 7 years at the Stanford Research Institute (now SRI International) as a physicist, senior physicist, and assistant director in the Poulter Laboratory. He joined Washington State University in September of 1981 as a faculty member and has been there since then. Dr. Gupta has been engaged in studies of condensed matter response to shock wave compression and nonlinear wave propagation since 1970, with a par- ticular emphasis on the examination and understanding of microscopic processes. His background and training cover physics, materials science, and mechanics. With his graduate students and research associates he has been examining a broad range of multidisciplinary problems. Dr. Gupta has over 200 publications and over 200 invited and contributed presenta- tions. Over the years, his research activities have been supported by the following agencies and organizations: NSF, ONR, AFOSR, ARO, DARPA, DOE, EPRI, NSWC, LANL, and LLNL. He is a fellow of the American Physical Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science and a member of the New York Academy of Sciences. In 1995, he was chairman of the APS Topical Group on Shock Compression of Con- densed Matter. He served as the first chairman of the Northwest Section of the APS upon its formation in 1998-1999. He has served, and serves, on many committees related to the national security mission of DOD and 

72 evaluation of qmu methodology DOE and is a member of the University of California’s Science and Tech- nology Panel. He received the American Physical Society’s Shock Com- pression Science Award in 2001. In 2005, Dr. Gupta received Washington State University’s Eminent Faculty Award, the highest faculty award be­- stowed by the university. David Hammer is the J. Carlton Ward Professor of Nuclear Energy Engi- neering and professor of electrical and computer engineering at Cornell University. Dr. Hammer worked at the Naval Research Laboratory from 1969 to 1976, was a visiting associate professor (part time) at the University of Maryland from 1973 to 1976, and was an associate professor at UCLA in 1977; on three occasions, he was a visiting senior fellow at Imperial College, London. He has been a consultant to several corporations and government laboratories. Dr. Hammer has authored or coauthored about 110 articles that have appeared in refereed journals and about 60 that have been pub- lished in refereed conference proceedings. He also holds three patents. His research is supported by DOE’s Office of Fusion Energy Science, by the National Nuclear Security Administration, and by Sandia National Labora- tories, Albuquerque. Dr. Hammer is a fellow of the American Physical Soci- ety (APS), a fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, and a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He has held several offices in the Division of Plasma Physics (DPP) of the APS, including chair of the DPP in 2004, and he is presently the division’s representative to the APS Council. His current research interests and activi- ties are centered on studies of pulsed-power-driven high-energy-density plasmas and their applications, with emphasis on wire-array z-pinches, and on plasma measurements by optical techniques. Ted Hardebeck is currently vice president and director of science, tech- nology, and strategy at Science Applications International Corporation. He previously served as associate director, concepts and assessments, and as the Commander’s science and technology advisor at the U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM). Dr. Hardebeck’s background is in nuclear weapons issues relating to network-centric military planning and analy- sis. At USSTRATCOM, he led a comprehensive examination of issues involving guidance, target base, weapons requirements, and stability, the results of which provided much of the foundation for the 1991 Presiden- tial Nuclear Initiative. Dr. Hardebeck received a B.S. in mathematics and physics from Ball State University and an M.S. and a Ph.D. in mathematics from Case Western Reserve University. John Kammerdiener is retired from Los Alamos National Laboratory. He received his B.S. from the United States Military Academy at West Point, 

APPENDIX B 73 an M.S. from the University of California at Davis/Livermore, and a Ph.D. from the University of California at Davis/Livermore. From 1961 to 1972, he served with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. He served in Vietnam as a major in the Army Rangers from 1966 to 1967. Later he was a research associate at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory from 1968 to 1972 and was on the professional staff at Los Alamos National Laboratory from 1972 to 2001. In his 30-year career in nuclear weapons, he was the lead designer of many successfully tested nuclear devices, both fission triggers and thermonuclear secondaries, and he was a Los Alamos Laboratory fel- low. From 2001 to the present, he has been a consultant to LANL, LLNL, and JASON. He was a contributing author of JASON studies on nuclear testing in 1995, 1996, 1998, and 2005. Sallie Keller-McNulty is the dean of Rice University’s George R. Brown School of Engineering. She previously headed the Statistical Sciences Group at LANL, where she led a wide range of R&D into model valida- tion, reliability, defense analysis, and other topics. Before moving to Los Alamos, Dr. Keller-McNulty was professor and director of graduate stud- ies at the Department of Statistics, Kansas State University, where she had been on the faculty since 1985. She spent 1994-1996 as a program officer in NSF’s Division of Mathematical Sciences. Her ongoing areas of research focus on computational and graphical statistics applied to statistical data- bases, including complex data/model integration and related software and modeling techniques, and she is an expert in the area of data access. She has served on the Information Technology panel of the National Insti- tute of Standards and Technology Board; the Committee on National Sta- tistics’ Panel on Research for Future Census Methods; the NRC Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications; the Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics (chair, 2000-2003); and the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board’s Committee on Computing and Com- munications Research to Enable Better Use of Information Technology in Government. She is a National Associate of the National Academy of Sciences and fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. She received her Ph.D. in statistics from Iowa State University. She is a fellow of the American Statistical Association (ASA) and has held several positions in ASA, including, currently, that of president. She is an associate editor of Statistical Science and has served as associate editor of the Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics and the Journal of the American Statistical Association. She served on the executive committee of the National Institute of Statistical Sciences, on the executive committee of AAAS Section U, and chairs the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies, of which she is a former president. 

74 evaluation of qmu methodology Ernest J. Moniz is widely recognized for his work in theoretical nuclear physics and, more recently, in science and technology policy formulation. He joined the Massachusetts Institute of Technology faculty in 1973 and is currently the Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Physics and codirector of the Laboratory for Energy and the Environment. He previously served as head of the MIT Physics Department; as undersecretary of the U.S. Department of Energy; and as associate director for science in the Office of Science and Technology Policy. His current research-related activities include a foundation-sponsored project on the future of coal, work for LANL on security issues related to weapons of mass destruction, and service on a technical advisory board for EPRI. Dr. Moniz received a B.S. degree in physics from Boston College and a Ph.D. degree in theoretical physics from Stanford University. He has received honorary doctorates from the University of Athens, the University of Erlangen-Nuremburg, and Michigan State University. He is a fellow of the American Associa- tion for the Advancement of Science, the Humboldt Foundation, and the American Physical Society. Michael Ortiz is the Dotty and Dick Hayman Professor of Aeronautics and Mechanical Engineering at the California Institute of Technology, where he has been since 1995. He leads the Solid Dynamics group of the ASCI/ ASAP Center for the Simulation of the Dynamic Response of Materials. From 1984 to 1995 Professor Ortiz held a faculty position in the Division of Engineering at Brown University, where he carried out research activi- ties in the mechanics of materials and computational solid mechanics. Dr. Ortiz received a B.S. in civil engineering from the Polytechnic University of Madrid, Spain, and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in civil engineering from the University of California, Berkeley. He has been a Fulbright Scholar and a Sherman Fairchild Distinguished Scholar at Caltech and is a fellow and an elected member-at-large of the U.S. Association for Computational Mechanics, a Midwest and Southwest Mechanics Seminar Series Distin- guished Speaker, and an Alexander von Humboldt Research Award win- ner. He has been editor of the Journal of Engineering Mechanics of ASCE and of the Journal of Applied Mechanics, associate editor of Modeling and Simulation in Materials Science and Engineering, and is presently associate editor of the Journal for the Mechanics and Physics of Solids, the Archive for Rational Mechanics and Analysis and the Journal for Computational Mechan- ics. Since 2002, Professor Ortiz has served on the Office of the President Science and Technology Panel for the University of California. Jerry Paul has been named the first Distinguished Fellow on Energy Policy at the University of Tennessee’s Howard Baker Center for Public Policy. He recently retired as the principal deputy administrator with the 

APPENDIX B 75 National Nuclear Security Administration. In that position, he coordinated all activities of the NNSA at three national laboratories and five produc- tion facilities in the United States and foreign offices in Moscow, Vienna, Tokyo, and Beijing. Mr. Paul is a nuclear engineer and an attorney, and he was formerly a state representative in Florida. He served in the U.S. Merchant Marine and the U.S. Navy Reserve and has worked as a reactor engineer and power plant operator at fossil fuel and nuclear power plants. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Research Advisory Committee and as the Florida representative for both the Southern States Energy Board and the National Conference of Leg- islators Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources. Mr. Paul has a law degree from Stetson University, a bachelor’s degree in marine engineering from the Merchant Marine Academy, and a post-baccalaure- ate degree in nuclear engineering from the University of Florida. Robert Rosner, an internationally recognized astrophysicist, recently as­- sumed the leadership of Argonne National Laboratory. Prior to that, he served as chief scientist at the institution since 2002. He was chairman of astronomy and astrophysics at the University of Chicago from 1991 to 1997 and since 1998 has been the university’s William E. Wrather Distin- guished Service Professor. He was the Rothschild Visiting Professor at the Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences at Cambridge University in 2004. He was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2001 and is a Fellow of the American Physical Society. He holds a Ph.D. in physics from Harvard University and a B.S. in physics from Brandeis University. Most of Dr. Rosner’s scientific work has been related to astro- physical fluid dynamics and plasma physics problems. Much of his cur- rent work involves developing new numerical simulation tools for mod- eling astrophysical phenomena, as well as validating these simulations using terrestrial laboratory experiments. He led the DOE-funded Center for Astrophysical Thermonuclear Flashes at Chicago from 1997 until 2002. Dr. Rosner’s many scientific community services include current positions on the External Advisory Committee for the National Ignition Facility at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the steering committee of the Interagency Task Force on High Energy Density Physics, the scien- tific advisory committees for the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Lindau, Germany, and the Astrophysical Institute of Potsdam, Germany. As head of Argonne National Laboratory, Dr. Rosner is an opinion leader on several subjects, including energy research and devel- opment, accelerator science, computational science, and nanotechnology. He has been interviewed by CBS, National Public Radio, E&E News, and 

76 evaluation of qmu methodology has been featured in Inside Energy and Energy Daily and locally in Crain’s Business Journal, the Chicago Tribune, and the Sun-Times. Robert Selden is currently a private consultant in defense science and research management. He retired in 1993 as an associate director at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. His career in the DOE national labora- tories began at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the 1960s, when he was one of the two participants in the Nth Country Experiment to design a nuclear explosive from unclassified information. After mov- ing to Los Alamos in 1979, he served as the division leader of the Applied Theoretical Physics Division, as associate director for the Theoretical and Computational Physics Division, and as the first director of the Los Ala- mos Center for National Security Studies. Dr. Selden served as the chief scientist of the U.S. Air Force from 1988 to 1991 and received the Air Force Association’s Theodore von Karman Award for outstanding contributions to defense science and technology. He has been a member of the Strategic Advisory Group to the commander of the United States Strategic Com- mand since 1995. Since 2003 he has served as chairman of the Advisory Group’s Stockpile Assessment Team, which is responsible for conducting a detailed annual review of the U.S. nuclear weapon stockpile. He also is currently a member of the Joint Advisory Committee on Nuclear Weap- ons Surety to the Secretaries of Defense and Energy. He was a member of the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board from 1984 to 2005. Dr. Selden received a B.A. degree from Pomona College and a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Wisconsin.