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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
OBSERVING WEATHER AND CLIMATE FROM THE GROUND UP
A NATIONWIDE NETWORK OF NETWORKS
Committee on Developing Mesoscale Meteorological Observational Capabilities to Meet Multiple National Needs
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the U.S. Department of Commerce under contract numbers DG133W06SE5851 and DG133R04CQ0009, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under contract number EP06H002306, the Federal Highway Administration under contract number DTFH61-06-P-00121, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract numbers NNS06AE25G and 9724, and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under contract number HSHQDC-06-P-00161. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors or any of their sub agencies.
International Standard Book Number-13 978-0-309-12986-2
International Standard Book Number-10 0-309-12986-9
Library of Congress Control Number: 2008942839
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Cover: Photo courtesy of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
COMMITTEE ON DEVELOPING MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONAL CAPABILITIES TO MEET MULTIPLE NATIONAL NEEDS
RICHARD E. CARBONE (Chair),
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
JAMES BLOCK,
DTN/Meteorlogix, Minneapolis, Minnesota
S. EDWARD BOSELLY,
Weather Solutions Group, Olympia, Washington
GREGORY R. CARMICHAEL,
University of Iowa, Iowa City
FREDERICK H. CARR,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
V. (CHANDRA) CHANDRASEKAR,
Colorado State University, Fort Collins
EVE GRUNTFEST,
University of Colorado, Colorado Springs
RAYMOND M. HOFF,
University of Maryland, Baltimore County
WITOLD F. KRAJEWSKI,
University of Iowa, Iowa city
MARGARET A. LeMONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
JAMES F.W. PURDOM,
Colorado State University, Fort Collins
THOMAS W. SCHLATTER,
University of Colorado, Boulder
EUGENE S. TAKLE,
Iowa State University, Ames
JAY TITLOW,
Weatherflow, Inc., Poquoson, Virginia
NRC Staff
CURTIS H. MARSHALL, Senior Program Officer
ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant
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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND (Chair),
University of California, Irvine
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR.,
University of Maryland, College Park
RICHARD CARBONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
WALTER F. DABBERDT,
Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
KIRSTIN DOW,
University of South Carolina, Columbia
GREG S. FORBES,
The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
ISAAC HELD,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
ARTHUR LEE,
Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT,
University of Chicago
KIMBERLY PRATHER,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
KIRK R. SMITH,
University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,
Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins
XUBIN ZENG,
University of Arizona, Tucson
Ex Officio Members
GERALD A. MEEHL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
IAN KRAUCUNAS, Senior Program Officer
CURTIS H. MARSHALL, Senior Program Officer
MARTHA MCCONNELL, Associate Program Officer
MARLENE KAPLAN, Visiting Scholar
LESLIE BRANDT, Fellow
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
KATIE WELLER, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant
SHELLY FREELAND, Program Assistant
AMANDA PURCELL, Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
Preface
It is well known that the provision of weather and climate information is no longer the sole province of government. Weather information and services now cut a broad swath through the various public and private sectors and have diverse missions and a multitude of applications.
The breadth of this enterprise is increasingly apparent with respect to observations. The advent of inexpensive digital electronics and high bandwidth communications has lowered the barriers to investment in atmospheric observation, especially near the land surface. Literally thousands of organizations including small businesses, Fortune 500 corporations, state agencies, local water management and flood districts, urban air quality authorities, agricultural producers and service providers, and recreation providers, have entered the field of mesoscale observation to further particular interests associated with their mission. These observational assets are clearly market driven and span a wide dynamic range of investment.
Thousands of hobbyists and weather enthusiasts have made sizeable personal investments in meteorological station observations, sometimes of professional quality, and often of considerable utility. They enthusiastically seek to share such information through voluntary networks at local, regional, and national scales. This grass roots participation is further expanded by popular school networks nationwide, numbering in the hundreds, and often financed by local television stations.
Despite this widespread participation, all is not well with atmospheric and related environmental observations, especially in relation to costly infra-
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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
structure associated with observations above the atmospheric surface layer, and related data integration, assimilation, and access services. The agency sponsors1 of this study recognize numerous national vulnerabilities, unmet needs related to their missions, and the impetus to join forces in search of efficient, effective, and affordable solutions. In view of these concerns and aspirations, the Committee was charged to develop an overarching vision for an integrated, flexible, adaptive, and multi-purpose mesoscale meteorological observation network; and to identify specific steps to help to develop a network that meets multiple national needs in a cost-effective manner (see Appendix D for full Statement of Task). The Committee that produced this study (see Appendix E for committee member biographies) represents a broad cross-section of perspectives on the development and application of mesoscale observations and includes a range of public, academic, and private-sector interests. The scientific and technical expertise of the Committee includes operational meteorology and weather forecasting, climate science, air quality observations and modeling, hydrology, agricultural meteorology, coastal meteorology, transportation meteorology, satellite observations, and the human dimensions of the applications of environmental observations. Drawing upon this expertise and consistent with its charge, the Committee has produced a report that (1) broadly summarizes existing mesoscale observational assets, (2) evaluates overall adequacy and suitability to serve some major applications, (3) identifies directions for the way forward to achieve improved capabilities in a cost-effective manner, and (4) considers innovative organization and business model options to enable and to sustain the enterprise toward that end.
In order to address its charge, the Committee assigned itself three tasks. The first was to explicitly consider the role of a U.S. mesoscale observing network in the broader context of weather, climate, and Earth system observations, including the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS). Global scale observations are often best conducted from space as reported in the National Research Council (NRC) study “Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond,” hereinafter referred to as the “Decadal Survey.” The Committee has explicitly factored an assumed role of space-based observations into the surface-based plans presented herein, seeking to minimize redundancy and to maximize both effectiveness and efficiency of the whole observing system.
1
This study was sponsored by the Departments of Commerce (DOC), Transportation (DOT), Homeland Security (DHS), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
Secondly, the challenge at hand is broader than meteorological observations per se. While the preponderance of observations in this study are atmospheric, others are not. These other observations involve properties of the land or water surface, or otherwise non-meteorological variables (e.g., constituents that are toxic or otherwise significant in pollution, climate, and global change applications). It follows that the report, while heavily emphasizing mesoscale meteorological requirements, also includes, as appropriate, many ancillary observations that affect or characterize the state of the lower troposphere.
Thirdly, while not commonly referred to as “applications,” the utility of a national mesoscale network to research in the geosciences and biogeo-sciences can be substantial and is therefore considered an important element of the observing system. In many instances, prospective research findings have been and will continue to be pivotal to improvement in services provided by the sponsoring agencies of this study. Furthermore, in the case of the National Science Foundation, we note the National Ecological Observing Network (NEON) as one prominent example among several, where research-motivated observations may immediately contribute to practical applications in the public and private sectors.
In the course of executing our charge, the Committee consulted many individuals and organizations spanning the gamut of public and private interests. We have examined the recommendations and findings of recent NRC studies, such as Fair Weather (2003) and Earth Science and Applications from Space (2007) and others. Meetings were held in the District of Columbia, where agency briefings were emphasized; Boulder, Colorado, where both research and private sector relationships were explored; Norman, Oklahoma, home of the “gold standard” for statewide mesoscale surface networks; and Irvine, California, where we formulated our recommendations. Additional information was obtained from the literature, websites linking to databases, and a recent survey of observing systems, which was conducted under the auspices of the National Science Foundation, Atmospheric Sciences Division. The Committee would like to acknowledge the many individuals who briefed it, provided written information in the form of letters or other technical information. They include David Andrus, Rick Anthes, Albert Ashwood, Walter Bach, Randy Baker, Stan Changnon, Ken Crawford, Andy Detwiler, Paul Dirmeyer, Tim Dye, Robert Dumont, Frank Eden, Gary Foley, Mike Getchell, John Grundmann, Jack Hayes, Dave Helms, W. Hernandez, Rick Hooper, John Horel, Ed Johnson, Nick Keener, Scott Loeher, Teresa Lustig, Don Lynch, Greg Mandt, Cliff Mass, John McGinley, Dave McLaughlin, Phil Pasteris, Paul Pisano, Putnam Reiter, Dave Reynolds, Art Schantz, Dave Schimel, Victor Schisler, Ronnie Warren, Mark Weadon, and Y. Zhang. Our sincerest thanks are extended to
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Study Directors Ian Kraucunas and his capable successor Curtis Marshall, and Senior Program Assistant Rob Greenway for their steadfast support and encouragement.
Richard E. Carbone, Chair
Committee on Developing Mesoscale Meteorological Observational Capabilities to Meet Multiple National Needs
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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Richard Anthes, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Kenneth C. Crawford, University of Oklahoma
George L. Frederick, Vaisala, Inc. (Retired)
Richard M. Goody, Harvard University (Emeritus)
Bruce B. Hicks, MetCorps
John D. Horel, University of Utah
Irving Leveson, Leveson Consulting
Vijay Manghnani, ACE USA
Timothy Matuszewski, United Airlines
Leon F. Osborne, Jr., University of North Dakota
Roger Pielke, Jr., University of Colorado, Boulder
Maria A. Pirone, Atmosphere and Environmental Research, Inc.
Yvette P. Richardson, Pennsylvania State University
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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology, and John A. Armstrong, IBM Corporation (retired), oversaw the review of this report. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the NRC.
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Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
Contents
SUMMARY
1
Key Findings,
3
Infrastructure Needs,
4
Geography and Demography,
5
Recommendations: Steps to Ensure Progress,
5
Recommendations: Measurements and Infrastructure,
10
Recommendation: The Human Dimension,
13
The Challenge for the Future,
14
1
INTRODUCTION
15
Study Approach and Report Organization,
15
The Historical Context,
17
Current Policy and Technical Contexts,
21
2
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTING THE FUNDAMENTAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR MESOSCALE MONITORING AND PREDICTION
23
A Phenomenological Approach to Observational Requirements,
26
Data Assimilation: Synergy between Observations and Prediction Models,
31
Special Requirements for Climate Monitoring,
33
Mesoscale Observations for Research,
34
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3
NATIONAL NEEDS FOR MESOSCALE OBSERVATIONS IN FIVE ECONOMIC SECTORS
42
Energy Security,
42
Importance to the National Economy,
42
Current Assets and Operational Requirements for Mesoscale Observations,
46
Needs for the Future,
47
Public Health and Safety,
48
Importance to the National Economy,
48
Current Assets and Operational Requirements for Mesoscale Observations,
52
Needs for the Future,
55
Transportation,
63
Importance to the National Economy,
63
Current Assets and Operational Requirements for Mesoscale Observations,
67
Needs for the Future,
71
Water Resources,
75
Importance to the National Economy,
75
Current Assets and Operational Requirements for Mesoscale Observations,
76
Needs for the Future,
78
Food Production,
82
Importance to the National Economy,
82
Current Assets and Operational Requirements for Mesoscale Observations,
83
Needs for the Future,
84
4
OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGIES: SUCCESSES AND CHALLENGES
87
Surface-Based Observing Systems,
88
Networks for Surface Observations: Land-Based,
88
Coastal Ocean Networks,
93
The Vertical Dimension: Surface-Based In-Situ Technologies,
96
The Vertical Dimension: Surface-Based Remote Sensing Technologies,
97
Surface-Based Transportable and Mobile Observing Systems,
108
Targeted Observations,
110
Surface-Based Network Collaborations,
111
Space-Based Observations,
112
Space-Based Soundings,
115
Observational Challenges,
116
The Surface Challenge,
116
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The Challenges of Geography and Urbanization,
117
The Planetary Boundary Layer Challenge,
121
Challenges for Space-Based Observations,
124
Global Context and Infrastructure,
126
The GOS Ground-Based Sub-System,
127
The GOS Space-Based Sub-System,
128
5
ARCHITECTURE FOR A NETWORK OF NETWORKS
130
Measurement Networks,
130
Conceptual Architecture of a National Mesoscale Observing System,
132
Integration of Disparate Networks, Standards, and Protocols,
134
The Global Context: Global Earth Observing System of Systems,
136
6
HOW TO GET FROM HERE TO THERE: STEPS TO ENSURE PROGRESS
138
Planning for the Future: Convening the Stakeholders,
138
Improving the Use and Value of Existing Assets: Essential Core Services,
139
The Primacy of Metadata,
140
Standards for Instrument Sites and Exposures,
142
Quality Checking of Observational Data,
142
Rolling Requirements Review,
143
Augmenting Existing Infrastructure,
143
The Role of Observational Testbeds,
143
Diagnostic Studies,
146
Communication,
147
User Interface,
147
Identifying a Centralized Authority,
148
What the Centralized Authority is Not,
148
7
ORGANIZATIONAL ATTRIBUTES AND OPTIONS FOR A FULLY INTEGRATED NoN THAT MEETS MULTIPLE NATIONAL NEEDS
149
Organizational Models of Existing Mesoscale Networks,
150
Organizational Strengths of Today’s Mesoscale Networks,
150
Key Attributes of an Idealized Network of Networks,
151
Local Issues versus National NoN Opportunities,
152
Incentives for Metadata,
152
Filling Gaps and Avoiding Redundancies,
152
Consistent Data Collection and Archives,
153
Core Versus Context of Partner Organizations,
153
Intellectual Property Rights and Data Ownership,
154
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Multiple Funding Sources and Creative Solutions,
154
Proposed Roles of Partners,
154
Organizational Model Options,
158
Desired Characteristics,
159
Categories of Models Considered,
159
Organization Options Dismissed,
161
Options Worthy of Due Consideration,
162
Preferred Options,
165
A Recommended Organizational Model,
167
8
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
168
Preserving and Enhancing the Diversity of Investment,
168
The Evolving Human Dimension,
169
Highest Priorities Stemming from Common Threads,
170
National Needs,
173
The Vertical Dimension,
173
Metadata and Exposure,
173
Geography and Demography,
174
The Challenge for the Future,
175
REFERENCES
176
APPENDIXES
A A Rationale for Choosing the Spatial Density and Temporal Frequency of Observations for Various Atmospheric Phenomena
187
B Tables of Surface-Based Observing Systems
208
C Acronyms and Initialisms
218
D Statement of Task
224
E Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff
226
